1. Research & Systematic Observations (IX) Vulnerability Assessment, Impacts and Adaptation Measures (VII) Research & Systematic Observations (IX) Vulnerability Assessment, Impacts and Adaptation Measures (VII) National Climate Program CZECH REPUBLIC presented by Jan Pretel Czech Hydrometeorological Institute, Prague UNFCCC Workshop on 3 rd NC’s, Bonn, 28.2.-2.3.2001

2. Parts VII and IX of the 3.NC National Climate Program (establ. 1990) improve scientific cooperation on national level 1 st national project 1991-1992 US Country Study Programme 1993-1996 several small projects supported by Ministry of Environment, Ministry of Agriculture, Czech Academy of Sci., Charles University, Czech Grant Agency, etc. Decisions 14/CP.4, 5/CP.5 preparatory phase of new national project 1999 2 nd national project 2000-2001(Science&Research Project) focused on IPCC TAR and 3 rd NC

3. 1999-2001(Science&Research Project) Climate Science, Data Vulnerability Impacts Adaptation Regional Scenario Variability, Extrems Observations Hydrology Agriculture Forestry Human Health

4. Climate models – nodal point positions C - CGCM1, CS - CSIRO, E - ECHAM4, H - HadCM2, NC - NCAR3, SR - CCSR

5. Model validy HadCM2 Tmean

6. Regional Climate Change Scenarios IPCC DDC downscaling temperature - 2030 –increase by spring 1.0 o C, summer 1.6 o C, autumn 1.2 o C, winter 0.9 o C, year 1.2 o C precipitation – 2030 –increase by 3-8% predominantly in winter

7. Number of days with precipitation above given thresholds Klatovy (49°23'N, 13°18'E, 430 a.s.l.)

9. Number of days with daily minimum air temperature below given threshold Svratouch (49°44' N, 16°02' E, 737 a.s.l.)

10. Number of days with daily maximum air temperature above given threshold Svratouch (49°44' N, 16°02' E, 737 a.s.l.)

11. Hydrology and Water Resources effects on streamflow, groundwater recharge, runoff, water quality temperature increase by 2 o C ~ streamflow reduction by 10-15% due to evaporation flood magnitude and frequency in some regions water quality degradation potable water production and consumption

12. Hydrology and Water Resources adaptation –water resource management techniques –effective use of water –trade with water –reduction of water shrinkage –water use reduction in industry, energy, agriculture sectors and households –part of State Environmental Policy –sustainable development

13. Agriculture crop yield respons to climate change shift to more thermophilic crops effect of plant heat stress (extreme temperature events) less moisture in growing season heavy rain periods (june, september) erosion crop modelling assessment

14. Agriculture modelled climate change effect –CO 2 increase: corn +24%, wheat +33% –T + CO 2 increase: corn +16%, wheat +31% adaptation –agrotechnical management –adjustment to planting dates –fertilization rates –irrigation applications –selections of plants, species

15. Forestry 22% of territory covered by forests (spruce 54%, pine 18%) climate change effects on forests –dry stress –combined effects (air temperature + soil moisture + local air quality) adaptation –change of tree species, shift to foliate trees, integrated forest protection –changed forest management