1. TOWARD ECOSYSTEM BASED ASSESSMENT AND MANAGEMENT OF LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN SEA LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEMS LAC SYMPOSIUM ON LMEs Cancun, 7-8 September 2015 Kenneth Sherman NOAA - NMFS 1

2. 2 Large Marine Ecosystems are Naturally Formed Coastal Ocean Management Areas

3. ECOLOGICAL CRITERIA USED TO DETERMINE AREAL EXTENT OF LMES: Bathymetry Hydrography Productivity Trophodynamics 3

4. 4

5. Seminal LME Published Volumes

6. 6

7. 80% OF THE WORLD’S FISHERIES CATCHES ARE PRODUCED IN 66 LARGE MARINE ECOSYSTEMS 7

8. LATIN AMERICAN AND CARIBBEAN LMEs 8

9. Courtesy of Villy Christensen, UBC, Fisheries Centre 9

10. ESTIMATED SOCIOECONOMIC VALUE OF LMEs Goods and Services Contribute $12.6 Trillion Annually to the Global Economy Costanza et al., NATURE, Vol. 287/ 15 May 1997 10

11. Human expansion Altered ecosystems 3Mechanicalhabitatdestruction 2Pollution “Then” “Now” 1Fishing 4Introductions 5 Climate change (from Jackson et al., Science vol. 293, 27 July 2001) 11

12. 12 LMEs are Global Centers of Effort to Introduce Ecosystem Based Management (EBM) Practices

13. ECOSYSTEM MANAGEMENT: A PARADIGM SHIFT FROMTO Individual speciesEcosystems Small spatial scaleMultiple scales Short-term perspectiveLong-term perspective Humans: independent of ecosystems Humans: integral part of ecosystems Management divorced from research Adaptive management Managing commoditiesSustaining production potential for goods and services From: Lubchenco J. 1994. The scientific basis of ecosystem management: Ecosystem management: Status and potential: 103rd Congress, 2d session, Committee Print. U.S. Government Printing Office, Superintendent of Documents. 33-39 13

14. 14 LME – EBM Practices are Focused on : Sustaining fisheries Controlling pollution Restoring habitats Coastal planning Adaptation to climate change

15. 15 Productivity Fish and Fisheries Pollution and Ecosystem Health Socioeconomics Governance Five LME Assessment Modules

16. 5 MODULES WITH INDICATORS 16

17. 17 1992 Rio “Prevent, reduce, and control degradation of the marine environment so as to maintain and improve its life support and productive capacities” 2002 Johannesburg “Encourage the application by 2010 of the ecosystem approach” 2012 Rio +20 “We therefore commit to protect and restore the health, productivity, and resilience of oceans and marine ecosystems….” Ecosystem Based Management of LMEs Supported by Agreed Upon Coastal Ocean Goals of 3 UN Environmental Summits

18. 18 FINANCIAL ASSISTANCE IS AVAILABLE TO LAC COUNTRIES FOR EBM-LME PROJECTS FROM GLOBAL ENVIRONMENT FACILITY TRUST FUND CONTINGENT ON SUCCESSFUL GRANT PROPOSALS INCLUDING: TRANSBOUNDARY DIAGNOSTIC ANALYSIS (TDA) STRATEGIC ACTION PLAN (SAP)

19. GEF International Waters Operational Strategy Supports New Paradigm 19 Ecosystem-based LME Restoration Actions TDA/SAP Priority Actions

20. 20 1995-2014 $3.15 billion 2014-2018 $2.86 billion Total EBM/LME support to developing countries$6.01 billion GEF Financial Support For Planning & Implementing EBM Goals in LMEs

21. Engaging with partners 5 UN Agencies –UNDP –UNEP –UNIDO –FAO –IOC UNESCO 2 NGOs –IUCN –WWF 2 Global Financial Institutions –Global Environment Facility –World Bank 110 countries moving toward ecosystem- based sustainable development 21

22. 22 LMEs with GEF-Supported EBM Projects since 1994 22

23. Mr. Zhanhai Zhang, Director-General, Department of International Cooperation, State Oceanic Administration, China, and Mr. Sang-Pyo Suh, Director, Economic Organization & Environment Division, Ministry of Foreign Affairs and Trade, Republic of Korea, signed the statement of agreement approving the SAP at an endorsement ceremony in China. Representatives from UNDP/GEF, the project manager, and the Democratic People's Republic of Korea participated as observers of the signing. 23

24. 24 Benguela Commission Signing of the Interim Agreement in 2006; Angola signed in 2007.

25. 25 Yellow Sea LME SAP: carrying capacity, ecosystem services, and regional targets that maintain services

26. Going Forward 2014 - 2018 Assist LME Network in EBM coordination and integration of an estimated $2.86 billion in GEF supported EBM projects in: Fisheries recovery and sustainability Pollution and ecosystem health Habitat Recovery Marine Protected Areas (MPAs) Integrated Coastal Management (ICM) Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) 26

27. N inputs and transport by rivers to Large Marine Ecosystems. Sewage Fertilizer Atmospheric Deposition Manure Natural N 2 -fixation Crop N 2 -fixation 27 Symbols for diagram courtesy of the Integration and Application Network (ian.umces.edu/symbols), University of Maryland Center for Environmental Science.

28. DIN inputs to LMEs from land-based sources predicted by the NEWS DIN model (Figure from Lee and Seitzinger( 2009). 28

29. 29 Dissolved Inorganic Nitrogen in a Business- as-usual (BAU) Forecast

30. 30 The 15 fastest warming LMEs around the globe Accelerated Warming of the World’s LMEs in 61 of 63 LME Assessments

31. From Behrenfeld et al. 2007 31

32. 32 The 15 Fastest Warming LMEs (1982- 2006 The global effects of climate warming on primary productivity are projected by latitude for the years 240-2060. The primary productivity change (Pg C deg-1year-1) and temperature increase, is shown above for six Atlantic Ocean Circulation models. Modified from Sarmiento et al. 2004. Estimate of 2040 – 2060 primary production change (Pg-C deg -1 yr -1 )

33. 33 30° North to 30° South Circumglobal Belt of 29 LMEs at Risk from Projected Primary Productivity Declines 29 LMEs annually produce 40.6mmt or 50.7% average annual biomass yields 20 LMEs border GEF eligible countries 16 LMEs are subjects of present or completed GEF- LME EBM projects FAO Precautionary Principle implementation Serves as a Mitigation Option *Annual limits on total allowable catches for dominant pelagic species are presently in place for the Humboldt Current. LMEs Bordering GEF- Eligible CountriesLME Name 5-yr mean fisheries biomass in tonnes Fisheries biomass yield status - % fully exploited Fisheries biomass yield status - % overexploited Insular Pacific Hawaiian6,121.00154 California Current634,669.00N/A xGulf of California134,297.004548 xPacific Central American788,191.004218 xGulf of Mexico987,865.003660 xCaribbean Sea370,231.004058 Southeast US Continental Shelf89,216.005426 xHumboldt Current10,617,103.00N/A* xSouth Brazil Shelf130,669.002040 xEast Brazil Shelf127,969.004048 xCanary Current2,229,215.00726 xGuinea Current1,010,453.007124 xBenguela Current1,307,649.00508 xAgulhas Current295,364.003032 xSomali Coastal Current58,961.004550 xArabian Sea2,486,227.008411 xRed Sea129,206.008810 xBay of Bengal3,062,147.008315 xGulf of Thailand676,304.003750 xSouth China Sea6,454,043.008313 xSulu-Celebes Sea1,207,946.008217 xIndonesian Sea2,392,818.008812 North Australian Shelf159,572.007818 Northeast Australian Shelf36,310.004630 East Central Australian Shelf29,095.001864 West Central Australian Shelf19,079.007510 Northwest Australian Shelf62,842.005918 xEast China Sea4,339,890.007721 Kuroshio Current823,035.004842 SUM 40,666,487.00

34. 34 “Integrated research, monitoring, training, and outreach programs at the large-marine- ecosystem scale are urgently needed in every large marine ecosystem.” J. Lubchenco foreword, “Lessons from the Ice Bear” p.xiii in Ecosystem-based Management for the Oceans, K. McLeod and H. Leslie, eds. 2009, Island Press.