1. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE What is the Cost of Not Having Nuclear Power or Carbon Capture and Storage While Still Stabilizing GHG Concentrations at Safe Levels? Carmen Difiglio, Dolf Gielen International Energy Agency Energy PMP 19 August 2004

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11. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Assumptions A “safe level” of GHG concentrations was assumed to be 550 ppm (highly uncertain). A “business-as-usual” base case was assumed not to be consistent with achieving 550 ppm (depends on emissions beyond the modeling horizon - 2050). A low-emission case (GLO50) was assumed to be consistent with stabilizing at 550 ppm beyond 2050. The IEA ETP model was used to estimate the average and marginal costs of emission reductions. The most optimistic ETP technology scenario was assumed (with high technology learning) for renewable and efficiency technologies.

12. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Business-as-Usual Global CO 2 Emissions (Base) vs Emissions Case Consistent with Stabilization at 550 ppm (GLO50)

13. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE World-Wide Annual Cost of Not Having Nuclear or CCS While Achieving 550 ppm

14. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Costs/Ton CO 2 to Achieve 550 ppm

15. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Marginal Costs to Achieve 550 ppm in One Model Region

16. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Appendix (1) ETP Structure Hydrogen production Industry Residential/ commercial Electricity production Refineries Transport Heating Cooling Power Moving etc. Gasoline Natural gas Electricity Coke Hydrogen Heat etc. Renewables Fossil fuels Nuclear Useful energy Primary energy Conversion sectors/processes Final energy Demand sectors/processes Coke ovens Heat production INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE

17. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Appendix (2) Electricity Sector in ETP Coal 13 technologies Coal –CO 2 7 technologies Gas12 technologies Gas –CO 2 4 technologies Nuclear3 technologies Renewables83 technologies Industrial CHP 40 technologies

18. INTERNATIONAL ENERGY AGENCY AGENCE INTERNATIONALE DE L’ENERGIE Appendix 3 ETP - Regions IEA-Regions: US Canada Japan Australia and New Zealand IEA-Europe South Korea Non-IEA Regions: Eastern Europe FSU China India Rest of Asia Latin America Mexico Africa Middle East