1. Status and Plans for the RSA LAPS/MM5 Implementation – July 2004 Brent Shaw*, John McGinley, Steve Albers* NOAA Forecast Systems Laboratory *In collaboration with the Cooperative Institute for Research in the Atmosphere (CIRA), Colorado State University, Fort Collins, Colorado

2. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Overview Review of System Design Review of Last Delivery Work Accomplished Since 2003 TIM Recommended Schedule Issues Discussion

3. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO System Design Review Basic requirements – New 24-h forecast every 6 hours – High spatial resolution (1 km objective) – Support launch weather operations and range safety requirements for dispersion modeling – Integrate with display system (AWIPS) Trades considered – Size of domain and nesting options – Forecast length vs. scale predictability – Computational resources vs. cost-benefit – Future upgrade path

4. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Basic Solution LAPS coupled with MM5 NWP model Use diabatic initialization (“hot start”) Utilize parallel code on Linux cluster Integrate with AWIPS in a modular fashion

5. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO AWIPS Integration AWIPS Data Server AWIPS Workstation Modeling Server NOAAPORTLDAD LAPS Anal/Fcst Grids Obs/Radar/Sat/NCEP

6. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Hardware Configuration Linux Cluster Modeling Server – 1 master/8 compute nodes (18 processors) – Dual P-III 1GHz, 1GB RAM on each node – 60GB RAID array on front-end – Myrinet inter-connect Interacts with AWIPS DS via NFS LAPS analyses and 2-h MM5 update forecast run on master node 6-hourly MM5 and post-processing use compute nodes

7. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO LAPS Domain Configuration Triple Nest Domain – 97x97 – 10.0/3.3/1.1 km  x – 10km for Model Init – 3.3/1.1 for NowCasting LAPS Runs – Hourly analyses – 41 Pressure levels – Runs at H+20 min – Available at H+30 min

8. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO RSA LAPS Data Sources National Data (NOAAPORT SBN Feed) – Eta (Grids 211, 212, and 215) – Regional narrowband WSR-88D reflectivity – GOES imagery (Vis, SWIR, 2 LWIR) – MDCARS – RAOBs – METARs/Ship Reports/Buoys – National Profiler Network

9. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO RSA LAPS Data Sources Local Data (via LDAD) – Local wideband WSR-88D (Z and Vr) – Local ASOS Observations – 50/915 MHz Wind Profilers – MiniSODAR Wind Profiles – RASS – Tower observations – AMPS Soundings – Local MM5 forecast grids

10. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO MM5 Forecast Model MM5 v3 used for RSA application – Upgraded to release 3.5 in June 2002 – FSL modifications for diabatic initialization – FSL-developed runs scripts suitable for operations Concurrent post-processing – Supports multiple output formats – Allows viewing on workstation as model runs – Hourly temporal output

11. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO MM5 Forecast Model Two configurations for RSA – “Update” run to provide first guess for LAPS Used for “downscaling” national model Runs every hour out to 2 h on master node (serial) Initialized with national first guess (Eta forecast) and climatological SST Domain 1 (10km) only Not displayed on AWIPS – Forecast run used for operational forecasts Diabatically intialized with LAPS Runs every 6 hours Triple nest (10/3/1.1) with forecasts out to 24/12/9

12. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO MM5 Run Configuration (Development System Config) 30-second timestep MRF PBL Scheme Explicit Schultz II microphysics on all domains 2-way feedback between nests Domain 1 initialized with LAPS (diabatic) Domains 2 and 3 interpolated from parent Lateral boundaries provided by NCEP Eta

13. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO 0-3 h QPF Verification

14. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO 0-6 h QPF Verification

15. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO 0-12 h QPF Verification

16. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO JAX WRF QPF Verification 0600 UTC +3, 6, and 9-h QPF Verification, 1 Oct 03 thru 4 May 04

17. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO

18. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Vertical Level Configuration 41  Levels

19. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO LAPS-MM5 Production Cycle National Model Forecast (Eta via SBN) MM5 Update Cycle (10km) 1-h Forecast for First Guess 2-9 h Forecast for IC/LBC 10-km LAPS Analysis 3.3-km LAPS Analysis 1.1-km LAPS Analysis Hourly Cycle MM5 Forecast (Every 6 h) - 10km to 24h - 3.3 to 12h - 1.1 to 9h Observations via SBN and LDAD Diabatic Init. Cond. Lateral Boundary Conditions

20. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO MM5 Forecast Run Timeline 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Valid Hour 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 Actual Hour All 3 Domains (2.3:1 Ratio) 2 Domains (7.8:1 Ratio) 1 Domain (36:1 Ratio) Run time based on: 12 processors for model 1 processor for each post job

21. Cape Canaveral 6-hour QPF on 1-km Grid and Radar Verification 9 Feb 04

22. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Build History RSA LAPS/MM5 V1: Dec 2001 – Initial installation at WR RSA LAPS/MM5 V2: Aug 2002 – Initial installation at ER – Included “easy” install CD, provided to LMMS RSA LAPS/MM5 V2.1: July 2003 – Delivered to LMMS on CD

23. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Review of Last Build (V2.1) Added new data ingest for LAPS – Local wideband WSR-88D via AWIPS – 50 and 915 MHz wind profilers (LDAD) – RASS (LDAD) – Locally-available ASOS (LDAD) Improved analysis components – Nighttime clouds (interaction between GOES 3.9 micron and radar data) – Merge of multiple level-II and level-III WSR-88D sites – Improved coastal gradient analyses

24. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Review of Last Build (V2.1) MM5 changes in V2.1 – Activated Kain-Fritsch convective parameterization on 10 and 3.3km grids to reduce over-prediction of precipitation – Replaced Mellor-Yamada TKE PBL with Burk- Thompson PBL scheme to improve surface temperatures

25. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Deficiencies in Build V2.1 LAPS vertical temperature bias – Bug in balanced temperature retrieval – Causes over-prediction of clouds/precip “Inferred” SST problematic – Based on 48-h average wet-bulb T from Eta – Not representative during frontal passages TKE PBL schemes in MM5 under-predict diurnal temperature range Microphysics require saturation in cloudy grid boxes

26. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Accomplishments Since April 2003 TIM LAPS Analysis Improvements – Corrected vertical temperature bias – Improved derivation of cloud vertical velocities (CWB collaboration) – Began testing improved balance scheme, incorporating thermodynamic terms – Added new data ingest routines Short and tall towers miniSODAR AMPS (NOTE: No real-time testing possible yet!) – Numerous other miscellaneous improvements

27. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Accomplishments Since April 2003 TIM MM5 Forecast Improvements – Implemented monthly climatological SST use Provides better forecasts than “pseudo-SST” Provides a first guess for LAPS SST analysis – Added TKE diagnosis to post-processor Allows use of better MRF PBL while still meeting need for TKE field for HYPACT integration – Switched PBL scheme to MRF Reduced surface T RMSE and bias by 1-2K – Implemented new Schultz II microphysics – Deactivated K-F cumulus parameterization

28. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Accomplishments Since April 2003 TIM Verification Package – Surface observations vs. MM5 forecast – Requires MySQL database – Interactive query capability Command line or web based User customization options – Running in test mode on development system for 10-km MM5 grids – Still testing interface scripts

29. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Recommended Schedule Deliver LAPS/RSA v3.0 – July 2004 – CD delivery to LMMS with installation scripts – Includes all changes discussed previously Deliver LAPS/RSA v3.1 – Jan 2005? – Incorporate 12-km Eta (inc. hi-res SST) for lower and lateral boundary conditions (contingent on LMMS EDS work) – Adds AMPS and improved tower ingest – Improved balance package – Include verification package

30. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Issues FSL access to RTAMPS data – Needed for testing/tuning – “Canned” data insufficient unless a complete /data/fxa case is concurrently archived SBN data limitations – Partially mitigated by use of climo SST – LMMS EDS project should fully mitigate

31. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Issues Where to run verification package – Cluster headnode not optimum Requires another software package (MySQL) Load on headnode is already heavy Requires use log into cluster and use text-based interface – Recommend purchasing/integrating a separate computer, with NFS mount to cluster filesystem Run MySQL and web server on this machine Provide web access to forecasters for verification Basic PC dedicated to this task should suffice

32. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Issues 3.3/1.1 km MM5 forecast grids – Too small to be of good forecast utility – Increasing size requires more/faster hardware and/or reducing forecast length and/or frequency Future of MM5 – Final release of MM5 will be 3.7 – Users being encouraged to migrate to WRF

33. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Issues Accommodation of Advanced Server 2.1 – Test runs will need to be done – Fits within purview of maintenance task Model output to AMU – Exportation of “bigfile” via ftp or LDAD – Multiple options possible

34. 29 June 2004RSA TIM – Boulder, CO Summary July build on-track – Improved LAPS analysis with additional local data and improved algorithms – Better forecasts from new microphysics, better SST, and a better PBL scheme Need to work out details of verification package integration at ranges Continue planning for future

35. Discussion?