1. Monitoring Business Cycle: Malaysia Experiences
International Seminar on Early Warning and Business Cycle Indicators, Scheveningen, The Netherlands, December 2009
Monitoring Business Cycle:
Malaysia Experiences
Department of Statistics Malaysia
“Producer Of National Statistics”

2. A. Background
1980’s - University of Malaya was successfully developed the FEA Monthly Index.
Department of Statistics Malaysia started to work on the economic indicators
- Completed the project with two set of Composite indexes : The Leading and Coincidence Index
1997: Sight revisions were made plus new set of lagging index
First made to public known as Malaysia Economics Indicators

3. A1. Real GDP vs Coincident Index

4. A2. The Chronology of Malaysia Business Cycles
Reference Cycles
Reference Dates
Duration (Months)
Peak
Trough
Contraction
Expansion
Full Cycles
1st Cycle
July 74
Feb 75
Jan 85 7
119
126
2nd Cycle
Jan 86
Dec 97 12
143
155
3rd Cycle
Nov 98
Feb 01 11 27 38
4th Cycle
Feb 02
Feb 08 72 84
5th Cycle
Mar 09 13
Average 90
101
There were five business cycles recorded from 1970 to date.
In general, the economic recession in Malaysia does not spent more than a year.

5. B. Sequential Signals of Recession & Recovery to Monitor Malaysia Business Cycles
5% was calculated based on the average growth of annual real GDP for Malaysia prior to 1996

6. B1. Signals for 1997/1998 Recession and Recovery

7. B2. Signals for 2001/2002 Recession and Recovery

8. B3. Signals for 2008/2009 Recession and Recovery

9. C. Measures to overcome the weaknesses of Malaysia Economic Indicators
Review the existing components (all indexes)
Adding new potential variables
Revised the methodology
Create the supplementary indexes
Testing the performance of the system
Made to public

10. Department of Statistics Malaysia website:
Thank You
Department of Statistics Malaysia website: