1. Fracking* in the face of Global Climate Change Catherine Gautier Pete Peterson University of California, Santa Barbara *production of unconventional fossil fuels

2. Is Peak Oil delayed by Shale Oil? Put together by crudeoilpeak.info Shale oil

3. Carbon Budget Carbon Budget till 2100 for >66% chance – ΔT= 2°C ~ 1,000 Gt of CO 2 – ΔT= 1.5°C ~ 600 Gt of CO 2 Carbon content of reserves >> 1000 Gt CO 2 Current emissions ~ 36 Gt/y  < 2 decades to use up carbon budget

4. Source : IPCC, AR5, WG1, 2014 CO 2 budget and 2°C objective: Facts and uncertainties Figure SPM.5(b), from the IPCC AR5 Summary for Policymakers.

5. 2014 Warmest Temperature www.arctic.noaa.govToday the world is 0.85°C warmer than pre-industrial levels

6. Maximum Temperature (T) History and Predictions for RC T max RCP4.5 HISTORICAL RCP6 Pal and Eltahir, 2015

7. Ice Mass Loss from the Two Polar Ice Sheets How fast these two polar ice sheet melt determine how quickly sea level rises. Much uncertainty in timing of major melt such as WAIS Recent results show fast retreat of the grounding line of important glaciers. There is no hill in the marine based topography left to anchor these glaciers. They have passed the point of no return. Adapted from Wouters et al., 2013

8. Sea Level Rise from Satellite Altimetry A clear signal of human-caused change From TOPEX/Poseidon, Jason ‑ 1 and Jason ‑ 2

9. Emissions and Temperature associated with different representative pathways IPCC AR5

10. INDC for major emitting countries

11. The $2 trillion stranded assets danger zone: http://www.carbontracker.org/report/stranded-assets-danger-zone/ 2015 2035

12. Projected Oil and Gas Production OIL GAS Tight oil Tar Sands IEA 2015 2035 Other Canadian Canadian Other US US U.S. Dry Natural Gas Production Trillion Cubic Feet North American Crude Production Million b/day

13. All Oils don’t affect climate the same way Light Ultra-Deep Heavy High Steam Extra Heavy Conventional High Gas Depleted/Watery Oil High Flare Calculations will be made available online at CarnegieEndowment.org

14. CO 2 emissions from Reserves and Resources with budget for 2°C McGlade and Ekins, 2015

16. Methane Emissions g C of CO 2 MJ -1 of energy Natural gas15 Coal 25

17. Methane leaks from fracking measured from space (Sciamachy)

18. Impact of a significant gas leak Aliso Canyon, CA https://www.edf.org/media/state-confirms-enormity-natural-gas-mega-leak-southern-california “ California Has a Huge Gas Leak, and Crews Can’t Stop It Yet - Wired Dec. 15 th” “The Worst Gas Leak in California’s History Isn’t Close to Being Fixed” “Infrared Camera Reveals Huge Cloud of Methane over California’s Aliso Canyon” “Gas Co. Vows to Shut Down Aliso Canyon Natural Gas Well After Leak Is Fixed” Over 700 households have at least temporarily relocated. The site at Aliso Canyon has a capacity of 86 billion cubic feet.

19. Solutions: Leave Fossil Fuels in the ground Leave all unconventional oil and gas in the ground because existing reserves and resources are incompatible with 2ºC climate policies due: – Quantity available – High carbon content – Probability of methane leaks increases with number of wells Invest in Renewables