1. Britain, the EU and the Referendum: What Drives Euroscepticism? Matthew Goodwin Caitlin Milazzo @GoodwinMJ @CaitlinMilazzo

2. Key points #EURef follows a long & entrenched tradition of Euroscepticism Britons consistently less enthusiastic about EU & membership Inners and Outers have very distinctive social profiles They think very differently about the world around them Dissatisfaction over democracy at EU level and immigration the strongest predictors of Remain vote Cultural concerns central to vote, consistent with wider academic research

3. The anti-EU vote: Competing explanations Utilitarian/economic drivers Voters mainly driven by instrumental cost-benefit economic calculation The pro-EU, young, skilled & cosmopolitans vs. the old, white left behind Sharp social profile differences cited as evidence Identity/ethnic threat drivers Profiles distinct but driven mainly by concerns over ethnic/cultural threat Immigration concerns concentrated among left behind & more key than EU Large number of studies demonstrate central role of identity to anti-EU Political approach Voters driven more by political considerations, whether domestic gvt of the day or perceived democratic deficit at EU level Anti-EU vote opportunity to voice protest sentiment

4. A quick point on the issue agenda…

5. Data and Methods British Election Study (BES) Collaboration by Universities of Manchester, Nottingham, and Oxford Waves 4,5,6: March-May 2015 26,127 respondents Dependent variable Vote to leave in EU referendum (Wave 6 – May 2015) Independent variables Socio-demographics (social class, education, age, gender) Attitudes (EU democracy, immigration, ideology, economy, Englishness) Methodology Multivariate logit model Calculate the predicted probability that an individual with each trait will support leaving EU, holding all others constant

6. Dissatisfaction w/EU dem. has biggest effect, but immigration also significant

7. Other attitudes, socio-demographics also matter Particularly ideology Far left = 0.10 vs. Far right = 0.46 But effect of attitudes on the economy has a more modest effect Getting a lot better = 0.19 vs. Getting a lot worse = 0.29 Of socio-demographics, education, social class have biggest effects Left school after 18 = 0.26 vs. Left school before 17 = 0.36 Higher professionals = 0.22 vs. Routine = 0.32

8. Implications Consistent with wider research, immigration and identity concerns will be central to the debate and our findings suggest motivate a large portion of the electorate to vote Leave While established actors may downplay these issues, other prominent actors will seek to amplify them Aiming to merge immigration -> refugee crisis -> security threats -> European Union External events, unresolved anxieties over net migration, the refugee crisis, and possibility of further terrorist attacks – are likely to sustain the salience of these issues going forward Those campaigning to stay in the EU will have to work hard to prevent these sentiments from hardening and widening

9. Britain, the EU and the Referendum: What Drives Euroscepticism? Matthew Goodwin Caitlin Milazzo @GoodwinMJ @CaitlinMilazzo

10. Social Background of EU Inners, Outers and Undecided Voters CharacteristicStayLeaveDon’t know Social class Higher managerial/professional2114 Lower managerial/professional352829 Intermediate occupations202326 Small employers/self-employed676 Lower supervisory/technical696 Semi-routine812 Routine487 Education (Age left school) 16 or younger244836 17-18222428 19 or older, still in school542937 Gender Male535034 Female475066 Age 18-34351831 35-54313437 55+334831

11. EU Inners, Outers and Undecided Voters by 2015 Vote Choice PartyStayLeaveDon’t know Conservative264344 Labour432134 Liberal Democrat1448 Ukip1255 Other1679

12. Issue Attitudes of EU Inners, Outers and Undecided Voters AttitudeStayLeaveDon’t know Left-right ideology Left411423 Centre393741 Right204936 Euroscepticism Unification “gone too far”369077 Britain should protect its independence289674 Dissatisfaction with EU democracy659484 Attitudes on immigration Immigration bad for Britain’s economy216841 Immigrants a burden on the welfare state114526 Immigration undermines Britain’s culture287347 Economic pessimism (retrospective) Personal economic situation worse303531 General economic situation worse292825