1. Hallgrímur Snorrason National Statistical Committee of the Kyrgyz Republic The 7 th SPECA Project Group on Statistics Improving the Coherence of Economic Statistics through Coordination of National Statistical Systems Issyk-Kul, Kyrgyzstan 27-30 August 2012 1

2. Background: The Speaker n Hallgrímur Snorrason, born 1947, Icelandic n Educated in Iceland, Scotland and Sweden n National Economic Institute, Iceland 1972-1984 n Director General of Statistics Iceland 1985-2007 n Active participant in international statistical cooperation – Nordic stat. coop., EFTA, UNECE, UN Statistical Commission, European Union (European Statistical System), IAOS (President 1993-1995), ISI Vice-President 2009-2013 n Consultant/lecturer on official statistics (e.g. Baltic, Balkan, African, and Arab countries, Ukraine, Greece; work for EFTA, Eurostat, World Bank, IMF, Nordic statistical institutes) 2

3. What is meant by coherence? n Dictionary: – The quality of being logical and consistent – The quality of forming a unified whole n Coherent statistics are logical, consistent and form a unified whole – incoherent stats are inconsistent and fragmented n Requirements for coherent economic statistics: – Based on harmonized definitions, classifications & methodologies – If not based on same data sources, the source data must be harmonized or reconciled – Must be presented in a uniform manner making sure that they are consistent – over time, between subjects and between institutions 3

4. Relevance – economic and other statistics n Economic statistics follow international systems which are based on a common set of assumptions, definitions and classifications and are inter-linked n These systems have been designed so as to render max clarity of economic activities and processes and form the best possible basis for economic policy analysis and formulation n Hence, economic statistics need to be coherent n Social statistics may focus more on specific phenomena, in particular survey based statistics. However, there is the same need for consistency and comparability n The need for coherence applies to all kinds of official statistics 4

5. Why coherence in economic statistics? n Some main perspectives: n User perspective n Producer perspective n Internal NSI coherence – within the national/central statistical office n National coherence – within the national statistical system of each country n External or international coherence 5

6. Improving coherence - user perspective n To improve clarity for users – government, politicians, media, researchers n To avoid conflicting statistical information n To minimize uncertainty and maximize the focus on what are the most applicable statistics for formulation of economic policies, public debate and economic research n To improve the use, the applicability and the value of the statistics; in comparison over time, between sectors, regions and with other countries 6

7. Improving coherence – producer perspective n For reducing / minimizing uncertainty of the statistical material, its origins and content n For increasing quality – ensuring quality is always a major challenge; coherent statistics are pre-requisite for quality and uniformity of the economic statistics n For increasing efficiency – coherent statistical definitions, methods, classifcations make for efficiency in the processing n Coherent statistics are more trustworthy than incoherent/ inconsistent statistics; they require less explanations, less defence by the producer and enhance the image of both the statistics and the producer 7

8. Improving coherence - internal perspective n Importance of ensuring coherence (consistency) within the National Statistical Institute and other statistical institutions – Of definitions, methods and procedures – Of classifications, not only using the same main classifications but also the same issues (rev. 1, rev.2 etc.) of the classifications – Decisions on the application of these should be a matter for centralized policy, monitoring and control – Dissemination practices should be coherent – meaning consistent, standardized over time, between subjects etc. – Coherence (logic, consistency and uniformity) would be aided by promotion of consistent practices – see the European Statistics Code of Practice, UNSD handbook on statistical practices etc. 8

9. Improving coherence – national perspective n Why? – To improve the usefulness of the statistics – for policy making, for analysis, for general information purposes – To enable participation in international cooperation – To increase the use of the statistics – by policy makers, analysts, media, in education and research, by general public – This applies to both quality and coverage n How? – By organizing or reorganizing the national statistical system (NSS) – By coordination within the NSS 9

10. Organizing and coordinating the NSS n In most countries there are several producers of official statistics – A central statistical office designated as the national statistical institute (NSI) – Ministries – ministries of finance often most important, also subject matter ministries like health, education etc – The central bank – Other stakeholders like statistical councils n The producers of official statistics and stakeholders must be organized to form a coherent system of official statistics n The system should be based on a legal act – statistics act n The system should have a strong coordinator – the NSI 10

11. Pre-requisites for effective coordination and cooperation within the NSS n Legal reqirement for coordinated statistical activities n The roles of the different players/institutions should be carved out in the statistics act n The NSI should be responsible for central coordination within the national statistical system (NSS) n The NSI should decide on the application of definitions, methodes and classifications for statistical purposes within the NSS following international recommendations n Public institutions should be obliged to supply their source data for official statistical purposes as required by the NSI 11

12. Coordination and cooperation in practice n Necessary to agree on the roles and responsibilities of the different institutions n Basic assumption: The NSI is the specialized professional institution in official statistics n Other institutions are specialized in their own fields (policy making, government finance, administration) and use data for monitoring of their activities but hand over data for statistical purposes n The cooperation may be further spelled out in memoranda of cooperation n The cooperation may be discussed in a coordinating body led by the NSI 12

13. Obligations of supply of public source data n Public institutions (including ministries, social security institutions, tax and customs authorities) should be obliged to supply the NSI or grant the NSI access to statistical source data, including administrative records and registers n The obligation to supply data for statistical purposes should include individual data concerning both households and firms – the obligation of ensuring confidentiality becomes the duty of the NSI n The supply of and granting access to source data should be free of charge, be in the most efficient format as decided by the NSO and at times and with frequencies decided by the NSI with a view to national and international obligations 13

14. External or international coherence n Most countries are to some extent involved in international cooperation. This invariably includes direct or indirect involvement or obligations concerning statistics n Indirect involvement – the cooperation requires data or statistics for monitoring and measuring progress n Direct involvement – obligations to deliver statistics for general statistical cooperation, e.g. UN, World Bank, IMF, or for specific development programmes, e.g. EU, devel. agencies n The statistics have to be comparable and consistent, between countries and over time n Hence, the countries are obliged to organize, produce and deliver coherent statistics 14

15. Conclusions n Organizing the NSS for producing coherent official statistics is inevitable for satisfying both national needs and those following from international cooperation n Coordinating the statistical activities of public institutions is inevitable for aquiring the goal of producing and disseminating coherent statistics n Coordination must include the use of source data, application of definitions, methods and classifications for statistical purposes n The coordination must recognize the different specialization of the agencies within the NSS – the NSI is specialized in statistics, ministries, public institutions are specialized in their own areas 15

16. Coherence through coordinating the NSS Thank you for your attention 16