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Steve Heminger Executive Director, MTC Planning Committee April 13, 2007
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Commissioners Mary Peters Secretary of Transportation — Chairperson Jack Schenendorf Of Counsel, Covington & Burling — Vice Chair Frank Busalacchi Wisconsin Secretary of Transportation Maria Cino Deputy Secretary of Transportation Rick Geddes Director of Undergraduate Studies, Cornell University Steve Heminger Executive Director, Metropolitan Transportation Commission Frank McArdle General Contractors Association of New York Steve Odland Chairman and CEO, Office Depot Patrick Quinn Chairman, American Trucking Association Matt Rose CEO, Burlington Northern Santa Fe Railroad Tom Skancke CEO, The Skancke Company Paul Weyrich Chairman and CEO, Free Congress Foundation
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Statutory Mandate Study current condition and future needs of surface transportation system Evaluate short-tem sources for Highway Trust Fund revenues and long-term alternatives to replace or supplement fuel tax Frame policy and funding recommendations for 15-, 30-, and 50-year time horizons Report to Congress by January 1,2008
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Field Hearings September 20-21, 2006Dallas, TX November 15 – 16, 2006New York, NY Memphis, TN February 21 – 22, 2007Los Angeles, CA Atlanta, GA March 19, 2007 Washington, DC April 18 – 19, 2007Chicago, IL Minneapolis, MN
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System Maintenance
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89% 91% 39% 48% 50% 52% 0% 20% 40% 60% 80% 100% 1997200020022004 Acceptable Good Pavement Ride Quality National Highway System for 2004 Source: U.S. DOT
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Bridge Conditions Bridge Deficiency Percentages Source: U.S. DOT
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Transit System Conditions Source: U.S. DOT 3.48 3.38 3.473.50 2.882.94 3.053.073.08 3.42
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Traffic Congestion
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Highway Operational Performance Percent VMT Under Congested Conditions 25.9% 27.5% 29.6% 30.7% 31.6% 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 19951997200020022004 Source: U.S. DOT
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In Congestion for At Least 40 Hours Annually Source: Texas Transportation Institute
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Nearly half of the growth in total Transit Passenger Miles from 1995 to 2004 has come from the Heavy Rail mode. Motorbus Heavy Rail Commuter Rail Light Rail Demand Response VanpoolFerryboat 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% Source: U.S. DOT Growth in Transit Ridership 23% Growth in Total Ridership from 1995 to 2004
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Safety
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U.S. and G.B. Traffic Fatalities Per 100 Million VMT Source: Leonard Evans, Traffic Safety, 2004
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Safety: Transit Fatalities Fatalities per 100 Million PMT 0.5 0.55 0.6 0.65 0.7 0.75 0.8 1995199619971998199920002001200220032004 Fatalities per 100 Million PMT by Mode 248 Total Transit Fatalities in 2004 0 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 1 1.2 1.4 1.6 Motorbus Heavy Rail Commuter Rail Light Rail Source: U.S. DOT
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Freight
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1,437 6,165 (TEUs in thousands) 2020 2004 Houston 13,101 LA/LB 1,010 2,152 Miami 2,043 3,382 Oakland 4,478 15,835 NY/NJ 1,809 5,566 Virginia 1,860 6,639 Charleston 1,662 9,420 Savannah 1,798 4,396 Tacoma 1,776 2,557 Seattle 59,420 Forecast figures based on 10-year linear regression Dramatic Increase in U.S. Maritime Trade Volume of trade: 2004 and 2020 Source: U.S. DOTv
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More trade means more domestic freight movements… West region +65% South region +71% Central region +71% Northeast region +58% U.S. domestic freight tonnage growth forecast, 2000-2020 U.S. domestic freight tonnage forecasts by mode, 2000-2020 2020 2000 % change 2000-2020 62%44%39%181%57% 10,700 17,296 2,009 2,891 1,054 1,470 13,772 21,682 9 9 25 Source: U.S. DOT (tons in millions)
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Freight Tons, Value, and Ton-Miles, 2002 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 4% 1% 9% 3% 2% 0% 7% 3% 1% 40% 74% 67% 16% 40% 6% <1% 6% 2% 13% 3% TonsValueTon-Miles Percent s Truck Rail Water Air Pipeline Multiple Modes Other/Unknown Modes Source: Bureau of Transportation Statistics and U.S. Census Bureau, “2002 Economic Census, Transportation, 2002 Commodity Flow Survey,” Table 1b. Trucking dominates domestic freight movement; rail is critical to the movement of bulky, lower-value commodities and for heavy shipments moving long distances
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0 50,000 100,000 150,000 200,000 250,000 300,000 350,000 400,000 1830185018701890191019301950197019902010 Class I Railroads Track-Miles Owned Sources: L. Thompson/World Bank and American Association of Railroads Rail Network Today Today’s rail network has been rationalized and downsized to a core network that is descended directly from the 19th Century design
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Fuel Efficiency (“Energy Independence”)
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U.S. Fuel Economy for New Light-Duty Vehicles 1975–2004 Model Years Sales-Weighted Horsepower and MPG
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International Fuel Economy Comparison Comparison of fleet average fuel economy and GHG emission standards for new-sale light-duty vehicles Source: UC Berkeley
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What’s Broken?
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Environmental Impact Statement Processing Time (FY 1998 – 2006) Source: FHWA
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Length of Time to Complete the New Starts Process Source: Holland & Knight
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Finance
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Highway Account Cash Balance Source: FY 2008 President’s Budget Projections
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Mass Transit Account Cash Balance Source: FY 2008 President’s Budget Projections
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Year 600 Gap to Maintain = $50 Billion per year (through 2015) 100 200 300 400 500 200620092012201520182021202420272030 Year-of-Expenditure Dollars (in Billions) Gap to Improve = $107 Billion per year (through 2015) Revenue Cost to Maintain Cost to Improve National Funding Gap Source: U.S. Chamber of Commerce
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Fuel Tax Purchasing Power Is Eroding… 18.3 16.2 14.0 12.2 5 10 15 20 199319951997199920012003200520072009 Cents per Gallon 201020082006200420022000199819961994 Source: AASHTO
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Street and highway construction costs have increased dramatically over the past few years * Table shows the Bureau of Labor Statistics Producer Price Index rates over the past twenty years as indexed …While Construction Costs Are Increasing
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State Gasoline Tax Rates including Sales and Petroleum Taxes Plus Local Option Gas Tax State Cents per Gallon 0 5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 NYCTMINVFLRIINOHMEWVIDORSDMDNDMNIANHDCTXVIMSNMOKNJAK CAILWIPAHIWANCMTNEGAKSUTMADECOARTNALLAVTAZKYMOSCWY Excise MFT Additional MFT Source: American Petroleum Institute As of April 2006
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Recent Public Private Partnerships Source: Public Works Financing Project Location Intermodal Projects in Green Highway Projects in Blue Transit Projects in Yellow Reno Rail Corridor SR 125 Toll Road - Hudson Bergen Light Rail Line Chicago Skyway Asset Sale Dulles Greenway Miami Intermodal Center Central Texas Turnpike Pocahontas Parkway Camden Trenton Light Rail Line San Joaquin Hills Toll Road Foothill Eastern Toll Road Alameda Corridor -Trans Texas Corridor Denver E-470 Northwest Parkway NM 44 (US 550) Southern Connector Hiawatha Light Rail Line Jamaica JFK Airtrain Tacoma Narrows Bridge Osceola Parkway Las Vegas Monorail I-15 Reconstruction AZ-17 Indiana Toll Road Asset Sale CREATE
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For More Information: www.transportationfortomorrow.org
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