1. Scientific Irrigation Scheduling RTF Staff/CAT Discussion RTF Research and Evaluation Subcommittee December 2, 2014

2. Context – What is SIS? 2 Scientific Irrigation Scheduling is irrigation decision support service provided by a consultant or by a participant. Objective: tell growers when and how much water to apply to their fields to minimize water use while achieving maximum yield. Tools: – Soil moisture metering – Evapotranspiration modeling – Applied water metering Factors: irrigation suggestions are specific to crop, soil type, location/weather, planting date, antecedent water, etc.

3. Context – What is the Quantec Study? 3 The study most relevant to measure development was done by Bonneville/Quantec in 2003-2005 – RTF has previously decided that the data from that study was not sufficient to support a Proven Standard Protocol – However, it provides quantitative glimpse at the measure basis for a provisional savings estimate – Phase 1: Phone survey of 776 growers in the NW (primarily Bonneville territory) Asked about irrigation practices 43% of irrigated acreage (22% of respondents) used efficient irrigation practices – Phase 2: Measured normalized water usage at 19 control and 19 treatment farms Control group: known not to use water management practices Treatment group: received SIS services Results: difference between two groups was 10% of Water Requirement – Results not statistically significant

4. Context – What’s going on now? 4 Bonneville – developing a research plan and provisional savings estimate – hosting a stakeholder/expert meeting to discuss sample segmentation on December 11 – proposing a Provisional Standard Protocol at the December RTF meeting (December 16) RTF Staff/Contract Analysts providing feedback to Bonneville throughout process will revise the Standard Protocol (as proposed at November 2013 RTF meeting) once research plan is sufficiently specified

5. Question Today for the R&E Subcommittee 5 Would the implementation of this Research Plan likely lead to a proven measure? – Yes – Yes, if XXX changes are made – Maybe, if XXX details are provided – No

6. 6 [Bonneville Presentation]

7. RTF Staff/CAT Highlighted Issues 7 Biggest Concern: Feasible sample sizes are not expected to provide statistically significant results. – Large expected variance in results (based on Quantec study) – Significant sample segmentation needed to capture variation in current practice Crop type Access to SIS infrastructure Farm size (economics, sophistication) Lift (economics) Value of saved water (water rights) – [SEE PRECISION ESTIMATE WORKBOOK]

8. RTF Staff/CAT Highlighted Issues 8 Concern: Additional details needed for subcommittees to weigh in – Sample Design Sample frame / Measure eligibility – Who is excluded from the study, and therefore (?) the measure? Sample segmentation How will the sample frame be developed? How will study participants be recruited? Approximate sample size Expected precision of results Ideally, the R&E Subcommittee would review this – Data collection methods How will Water Requirement be determined? How will Applied Water be measured? Ideally, the SIS (technical) Subcommittee would review this

9. RTF Staff/CAT Highlighted Issues 9 Concern: Research population may only include Bonneville territory – results may not reflect other territories – Chicken&egg – IOUs need to know research plan, costs, before committing to participation

10. Question Today for the R&E Subcommittee 10 Would the implementation of this Research Plan likely lead to a proven measure? – Yes – Yes, if XXX changes are made – Maybe, if XXX details are provided – No