1. Shared Vision for South Asia Fostering Sustainable Development in South Asia Responding to Challenges SDPI, Islamabad 23 rD Dec 2009 PALASH KANTI DAS Oxfam International

2. Outline of presentation Idea of Shared Vision The context of vulnerability GHGs emission at South Asia level Climate change impact and its implications Regional cooperation and what we have at SAARC level What would constitute our shared vision

3. What is Shared Vision –Bali Action Plan “……for long-term cooperative action, including a long-term global goal for emission reductions, to achieve the ultimate objective of the Convention, in accordance with the provisions and principles of the Convention, in particular the principle of common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities, and taking into account social and economic conditions and other relevant factors”

4. Bali Action Plan SHARED VISION Global emissions reduction pathway and key principles of future action to confront climate change. MitigationAdaptationFinanceTechnology - Binding emission reduction targets for rich (Annex I) countries. - Actions by developing (Non-Annex I) countries supported by rich countries. Globally increased efforts to adapt the world to climate change, especially in developing countries. Search for new financial resources to help developing countries both to mitigate and to adapt. Increased co- operation for the uptake and wide diffusion of clean technologies.

5. Long term goal……… Level of stabilization of GHG concentration – 350ppm CO2 eq A limit of the global average temperature increase – [1.5] degree Celsius above the pre-industrial level and [2] degree Celsius above the pre-industrial level 2050 is appropriate time frame for long term goal. GHG emission reduction – 50 percent of 1990 level, 85-95% for developed counties percent of 1990 level (there are figures with base year 1990, 2000, without base year) Global average GHG emission per capita reduced to about 2tCO2

6. What it means for South Asia: Position varies from country to country – Prioritisation differs – National interest linked with global negotiations – Political alignment with various blocks Inward and outward looking strategies Framing South Asian issues

7. The context of Vulnerability

8. Vulnerability is a state ….. V ∞ f E * S * 1/R (Modified from Metzger et al., 2006) E is the measure of severity of the change S is the sensitivity of the system (or the subject) to the exposure R is the strength of the system to respond, defy and even take advantage of the imminent condition(s) Vulnerability: A theoretical perspectives

9. V ∞ f E * S * 1/R implies In human systems R is a measure of capital that are enjoyed by the human system R ∞ f ( S ocial capital, H uman capital, P hysical capital, F inancial capital, N atural capital) The higher is the value of R, therefore the higher is the value of any of these capitals (or assets) enjoyed by a human system, the lower is the vulnerability …………….

10. V ∞ f E * S * 1/R further elaborates……. Low E means Low V [E can only be so when new emissions are reduced significantly, and old emissions are captured] If E is infinitesimally low, no need for high R

11. - A drastic emission reduction plan, within a short period of time - An agreed upon peaking in a shorter time frame - Adaptation actions through enhancement of adaptive capacity - Assistance for R by means of financing, technology transfer, skills ….. Hence South Asia shared vision should consider equally:

12. Emissions Scenario in South Asia

13. Source: WRI (2009)

16. The real implication

17. Climate Change impacts in South Asia Sea level rise Glacier melting Temp increase Frequent Floods Frequent drought Afg Yes BDYes Bhutan Yes IndiaYes MaldivesYes Nepal Yes PakistanYes SrilankaYes Source: WB (2009)

18. Climate Change implications in South Asia Water Security Food Security Livelihoods Security Energy Security Equitable Growth and Development

19. Other factors…. population: 2.2 billion by 2050 70% in rural areas and 75% belongs to poorest group 60% of them are in agriculture MDG achievements and beyond that

20. Regional Approach Water Security – regional equitable water management across basins Food Security – Ensuring food production and food availability regionally Energy Security – ensuring access to energy and energy cooperation Livelihoods Security – regional approach to address agriculture Along with al those regional disaster management and preparedness approach

21. ……Now the shared vision for SA Outward In line with FAB Common strategic Political approach Inward guided by regional approaches to four security issues mentioned earlier

22. Initiatives taken at SAARC level

23. What we have now at SAARC level SAARC CC Action Plan: No concrete Action Plan rather an agreed document 7 Thematic areas Initial period : 2009-11 Core focus is national level action plan adaptation Mutual consultation and capacity building

24. Contd….SAARC Declaration: Climate Change is mentioned only under Environment Energy (Para 8, 9): more energy cooperation and focus on renewable energy, efficiency and trading; tech share….. regional hydro, grid and gas pipelines connectivity Para 10 -14 : ‘…to intensify cooperation within expanded regional environmental protection framework..’ ‘…cooperation for capacity building, CDM, promotion for advocacy and awareness..’ In depth regional study ‘Climate Justice – Human Dimension of CC” Agreed on Per Capita Emission, historical responsibility and capabilities

25. Contd….Env Min Meeting in Oct 09: Next Summit Theme on “Climate Change” At least one sharing meeting every year Common position on CC negotiations

26. ……Shared vision should be…. SAARC cooperative actions towards long-term goals for greener equitable development paths based on Common but differentiated responsibilities and respective capabilities within South Asia and Social and economic conditions and other relevant factors

27. Thanks Palash Kanti Das South Asia Climate Change Lead Oxfam International Email: pdas@oxfam.org.uk