1. Synoptic situations associated to floods in the river mouths

2. Purposes: Classify synoptic situations associated to various types of floods Assess the changes of synoptical conditions favorable for inundations in a changing climate. Types of floods: Storm surges Water-flow Ice-jam Areas: Baltic sea Black sea Azov sea Caspian sea Barents sea

3. Method: Synoptic frontal analysis is applied DATA Data from GIS-Meteo system is used (since 1997). Time resolution – 3 hours includes: SLP, geopotential at all pressure levels (1000-10 hPa) Precipitation Cloudiness temperature at 2m and pressure levels Data of radiolocation Wind speed and direction

4. Нагонные наводнения Storm surges Caused by Wind foricing

5. Neva. February 2005 7.01.2005 12 GMT H500 Surface map L L Large depression located to the north-west of St-Petersburg

6. Wind at 10 m 07.01.2005 12 GMT Strong continuous wind forcing, wind oriented along the river channel

7. Pregolya 03-07.12.1999 Surface map H500 Additional factor -precipitation

8. Norvegian cyclone 29.11.2011

10. Mouth of Don river. April 1997 12.04.1997 00 GMT L L Surface map Black sea area

11. 12.04.1997 00 GMT Wind at 10 m

12. Mouth of Kuban’ 28.10.1969 12GMT Surface map H500

13. Kalmykiya 12.11.1952 12GMT H500 Surface map Caspian sea area

14. North Dvina 22.10.1965 12GMT H500 Surface map White sea area

15. Water flow Caused by Abundant precipitation Snow and glacier’s melting

16. Novorossiysk 7-9 December 2002 Surface map L L H L Black sea area Common predictor – intensive frontal zone

17. Mzymta 25-27 October 1997 Surface map L

18. Tuapse 31.07.1991

19. Dgubga 16.12.1996

20. Pregolya 7-10 August 2005 Surface map L Baltic sea area

21. Terek 15-24 June 2002 Surface map H

22. Ice-jam

23. Pechora June 2008 Surface map L Н Н Frontal zone expanded in north-south direction, positive temperature in river source and negative temperature – in the river mouth

24. Pechora June 1998 Surface map L L

25. Mouth of Kuban’ 7.01.2002 12ч Black sea area

26. Initial idea – classify the synoptical situations associated with floods, Assess the changes of probability of these situations in a changing climate. Not possible as the large variability of situations resulting in the same type of flood exists. Classification of synoptical situations for all floods Identification of potential predictors – meteorological factors characteristics of all cases of specific flood type Ice-jam –large zonal frontal zone expanding in north-south direction, temperature jumps, precipitations fall conditions, wind direction in the mouth of river etc Storm surges trajectories of depressions, wind speed and wind direction, duration of forcing Water flow – the main factor abundant precipitation No unified scheme of synoptic situation, but the intensive frontal zone is always presented Temperature gradient – approximation of frontal zone probability of gradient exceeding some threshold for modern and future climate Difificult to estimate the influence of climate changes, too many influencing factors which are not adequately represented in climate models Possible to estimate the influence of climate changes, several factors should be included – current work Estimated in climate model

28. Model - MPI-ECHAM5 (Max Planck Institute for Meteorology, Hamburg, Germany) Predictor - Probability of intensive frontal zone Number of cases 1961-19801981-20002046-2065 Year 549 (7,5%)638 (8,7%)461 (6,3%) grad T> 16 o C/1000 km 862 (11,8%)945 (12,9%)754 (10,3%) grad T> 14 o C/1000 km Winter 340 (18,9%)424 (23,6%)261 (14,5%) grad T> 18 o C/1000 km 490 (27,2%)571 (31,7%)423 (23,3%) grad T > 16 o C/1000 km Summer 29 (1,6%)51 (2,8%)96 (5,3%) grad T> 12 o C/1000 km 136 (7,4%)158 (8,6%)252 (13,7%) grad T>10 o C/1000 km

29. 1961-19801980-20002046-2065 Mean 222619 Rms 8.99610.6589.760 Dispersion 80.937113.58995.263 Minimum 11104 Maximum 484442 Number of cases with intensive frontal zone Winter Number of cases years

30. 1961-19801980-20002046-2065 Mean 5.5612 Rms 6.1166.5047.177 Dispersion 37.41142.30551.503 Minimum 001 Maximum 182726 Number of cases with intensive frontal zone Summer Number of cases years