1. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 1 Atlantis in the Netherlands Xander Olsthoorn Peter van der Werff Atlantis start meeting Hamburg. 22-23 Jan 2003

2. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 2 Elements of flood management in NL  Dike ring areas (units of flood safety management)  Endpoint of flood safety management: residual flood probability  National law says: flood safety may be different for each dike ring  Three probabilities: 1/10000, 1/4000, 1/1250

3. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 3

4. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 4 The flood safety discourse in NL  1 february 1953 flood disaster  Impacts of climate change on flood safety widely recognised  Policy guideline: “living with nature” –or – “room for rivers” (as opposed to heightening of dikes)  Decision making seems to be driven by flood events

5. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 5 Atlantis assumptions  The WAIS melting takes 50 years. Linear?  Melting will be discovered in 2025?  Impacts are all over the world. Implications for our scenarios?  Sea level rise will be observable, when detected it will be a high probability/high impact event.

6. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 6 Zero order reactions of civil engineers  Heightening sea dikes is possible. Dunes?  The problem is the rivers (Rhine/Meuse)  Silting?  Bottle neck river capacity lower Rhine (near the city of Dordrecht)  A solution: pumping!. About 1000 MW (2 big power stations). Investments: 5 billion Euro. Capacity rated for Rhine peak flow.

7. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 7 Atlantis assumptions: Order of magnitude costs at 5 meter (factor 25 higher) : 12,500 M€ Order of magnitude benefits (twice benefit above) : 6,000 M€ Current BNP 400,000 M€ Only monetary benefits

8. vrije Universiteit amsterdam Institute for Environmental Studies (IVM) 8 First assessment “saving the Netherlands”  Costs are of similar magnitude as benefits  Costs are a few percent of BNP  Would there be support for such undertaking?  Would the protection be trusted or would people (& investors) leave?  Could the construction industry keep up?  How to deal with temporary un-safety?  Many other