1. Climate Change: The Move to Action (AOSS 480 // NRE 480) Richard B. Rood Cell: 301-526-8572 2525 Space Research Building (North Campus) rbrood@umich.edu http://aoss.engin.umich.edu/people/rbrood Winter 2012 January 17, 2012

2. Class News Ctools site: AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12AOSS_SNRE_480_001_W12 2008 and 2010 Class On Line:2008 and 2010 Class –http://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Actionhttp://climateknowledge.org/classes/index.php /Climate_Change:_The_Move_to_Action SNRE Career Fair January 17, 2012, Dana Commons, 1:00-4:00 PMSNRE Career Fair Kimberly Wolske: Creating a Positive Climate for Low-carbon Living: Designing Initiatives to Bring out the Best in People –Wednesday, January 18, 2012 –12:00pm – 1:30 pm –Dana 1006 Katherine Hayhoe: High-Resolution Climate Projections: Connecting Global Change to Local Impacts –Wednesday, January 18, 2012 –4:30pm – 5:30 pm –SRB 2246 Hayhoe in News about “Hate Attacks”

3. CLIMATE CHANGE TOWN HALL DISCUSSION FRIDAY EVENING, Friday January 20, 6:30 – 8:00 pm Cures for Climate Confusion: Breaking Through in our Neighborhoods and in the Nation –Blau Auditorium at the University of Michigan Ross School of Business, 701 Tappan Street* –Submit a Question: http://erb.umich.edu/blog/2012/01/04/town-hall-cures-for-climate-confusion-live-stream/http://erb.umich.edu/blog/2012/01/04/town-hall-cures-for-climate-confusion-live-stream/ –Speakers: Rep. Bob Inglis, former US Congressman (R-SC) Rev. Canon Sally Bingham, President, Interfaith Power and Light, Steven W. Percy, former CEO of BP America (retired 1999) Andrew Hoffman, Director, Erb Institute for Global Sustainable Enterprise, University of Michigan Peter Frumhoff, Director of Science and Policy, Union of Concerned Scientist * Moderator: *Tim Mealey, Co-Founder and Senior Partner, Meridian Institute* View Live Stream Beginning at 6:30: http://erb.umich.edu/blog/2012/01/04/town-hall-cures-for-climate-confusion-live-stream/

4. Foundational Reading Next Reading: Radiative Balance –Radiative Forcing of Climate Change: Expanding the Concept and Addressing Uncertainties (2005) Board on Atmospheric Sciences and Climate (BASC) Chapter 1BASC http://www.nap.edu/books/0309095069/html From class website –Executive SummaryExecutive Summary –Chapter 1: Radiative ForcingChapter 1: Radiative Forcing

5. Some Basic References Rood Climate Change Class –Reference list from courseReference list from course Rood Blog Data Base Koshland Science Museum: Global Warming IPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy MakersIPCC (2007) Working Group 1: Summary for Policy Makers IPCC (2007) Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy MakersIPCC (2007) Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006Osborn et al., The Spatial Extent of 20th-Century Warmth in the Context of the Past 1200 Years, Science, 311, 841-844, 2006

6. From Reading of IPCC Summary The structure of the IPCC and the makeup of the panel Objective wording (i.e. "virtually certain", "very likely") Alarmed by observations (80% of heat absorbed by ocean, cause sea-level rise) Some questions, based on the responses What do you think the goal of the summary is? Is it successful at reaching this goal? Who is the audience? Is the summary well structured and formatted? What parts did you find confusing?

7. Today Scientific investigation of the Earth’s climate: Foundational information –Observations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) –Behavior of CO 2 and Temperature –CO 2 balance in the atmosphere Think about how to “fix” the problem –Conservation Principle –Radiative Balance –Earth System

8. What do we see from the past 1000 years On shorter time scales the CO 2 and T are not as cleanly related. Periods on noted warmth and coolness are separated by changes in average temperature of only 0.5 F. Changes of average temperature on this scale seem to matter to people. –Regional changes, extremes? Recent changes in both T and CO 2 are unprecedented in the past several hundred thousands of years. –And the last 10,000 years, which is when humans have thrived in the way that we have thrived.

9. What about the CO 2 increase? CO 2 now Concept of “stabilization” Stabilization as we have thought about it in the past may not be possible.

10. Today Scientific investigation of the Earth’s climate: Foundational information –CO 2 balance in the atmosphere Think about how to “fix” the problem –Conservation Principle –Radiative Balance –Earth System

11. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Important things in this figure.

12. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Enormous amount of carbon dioxide in the ocean.

13. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Exchange of carbon dioxide between atmosphere and ocean ocean. -2

14. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Large amount of carbon dioxide in the “soil” and plants

15. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Exchange of carbon dioxide between atmosphere and “land.”

16. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Large amount of carbon dioxide in coal, oil, gas

17. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Movement of carbon dioxide by burning +5.5 Millions of Years Hundreds of Years

18. What are the mechanisms for production and loss of CO 2 ? Movement of carbon dioxide by land use changes +1

19. Were you counting? Net sources into the atmosphere Net removal from the atmosphere 5.5 + 1 = 6.5 2+1 = 3

20. About carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) CO 2 is increasing in the atmosphere. In ocean transfer of CO 2 between CO 2 and calcium carbonate and carbonic acid. In some problems CO 2 treated as conserved because of time scales of transport and chemical inertness. For the climate problem CO 2 in the environment is increasing. It takes a long time for it to be removed, but there is a lot of cycling.

21. Carbon and Terrestrial Exchange

22. Carbon and Oceanic Exchange

23. Today Scientific investigation of the Earth’s climate: Foundational information –CO 2 balance in the atmosphere Think about how to “fix” the problem –Conservation Principle –Radiative Balance –Earth System

24. Conservation We have just done an accounting of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) –This could be called a budget. –In words: How much CO 2 we have tomorrow equals how much we have today plus how much we add minus how much we take away.

25. Conservation In words: How much CO 2 we have tomorrow equals how much we have today plus how much we add minus how much we take away. In symbols: CO 2 tomorrow = CO 2 today + Production - Lost

26. Conservation Much of physics is a counting problem of things that are conserved. –Energy –Momentum –Mass That is – if a system is isolated or closed that amount of stuff you have is equal to the amount of stuff you have. Or – if there is flux of stuff into and out of a system, we have to account for production and loss. OUT IN

27. Scientific Investigation OBSERVATIONSTHEORY PREDICTION

28. Conservation (continuity) principle There are certain parameters, for example, energy, momentum, mass (air, water, ozone, number of atoms, … ) that are conserved. –Simple stuff, like billiard balls hitting each other, ice melting Conserved? That means that in an isolated system that the parameter remains constant; it’s not created; it’s not destroyed. Isolated system? A collection of things, described by the parameter, that might interact with each other, but does not interact with other things. Nothing comes into or goes out of the system … or, perhaps, nothing crosses the boundary that surrounds the system.

29. This picture is conservation of energy SUN: ENERGY, HEATEARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

30. Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUNEARTH EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE

31. Conservation: A familiar concept

32. Conservation (continuity) principle There are many other things in the world that we can think of as conserved. For example, money. –We have the money that we have. If we don’t spend money or make money then the money we have today is the same as the money we had yesterday. M today = M yesterday

33. Conservation (continuity) principle M today = M yesterday Living in splendid isolation

34. Conservation (continuity) principle M today = M yesterday + I - E Let’s get some money and buy stuff. Income Expense

35. Conservation (continuity) principle M today = M yesterday + N(I – E) And let’s get a car Expense per month = E Get a job Income per month = I N = number of months I = NxI and E= NxE Income Expense

36. Some algebra and some thinking M today = M yesterday + N(I – E) Rewrite the equation to represent the difference in money (M today - M yesterday ) = N(I – E) This difference will get more positive or more negative as time goes on. Saving money or going into debt. Divide both sides by N, to get some notion of how difference changes with time. (M today - M yesterday )/N = I – E

37. Some algebra and some thinking If difference does NOT change with time, then (M today - M yesterday )/N = I – E I = E Income equals Expense With a balanced budget, how much we spend, E, is related to how much we have: E = eM (M today - M yesterday )/N = I – eM

38. Some algebra and some thinking If difference does NOT change with time, then M = I/e Amount of money stabilizes Can change what you have by either changing income or spending rate (M today - M yesterday )/N = I – eM All of these ideas lead to the concept of a budget: What you have = what you had plus what you earned minus what you spent

39. Conservation Principle seems intuitive for money The conservation principle is posited to apply to energy, mass (air, water, ozone,... ), momentum. Much of Earth science, science in general, is calculating budgets based on the conservation principle –What is the balance or imbalance If balanced, then we conclude we have factual information on a quantity. If unbalanced, then there are deficiencies in our knowledge. Tangible uncertainties.

40. Today Scientific investigation of the Earth’s climate: Foundational information –CO 2 balance in the atmosphere Think about how to “fix” the problem –Conservation Principle –Radiative Balance –Earth System

41. Conservation (continuity) principle M today = M yesterday + I - E Let’s get some money and buy stuff. Income Expense Energy from the Sun Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T) Earth at a certain temperature, T

42. Some jargon, language Income is “production” is “source” Expense is “loss” is “sink” Exchange, transfer, transport all suggest that our “stuff” is moving around.

43. The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy Assume that Energy is proportional to temperature, T, if the average temperature of the Earth is stable, it does not vary with time. We are starting with the idea that Earth’s climate is in balance. Looking at changes to that balance.

44. And the conservation of CO 2 Assume that total CO 2 is balanced. It sloshes between reservoirs and gets transported around.

45. Let’s think of this as a cycle CHANGE SOURCES SINKS EXCHANGE

46. Equilibrium and balance We often say that a system is in equilibrium if when we look at everything production = loss. There might be “exchanges” or “transfers” or “transport,” but that is like changing money between a savings and a checking account. –We are used to the climate, the economy, our cash flow being in some sort of “balance.” As such, when we look for how things might change, we look at what might change the balance.

47. Need to think about our “system” How might we change this balance?

48. Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUNEARTH EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE

49. One of my rules In the good practice of science, of problem solving, to first draw a picture.

50. Conservation (continuity) principle Energy from the Sun Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T) Earth at a certain temperature, T Stable Temperature of Earth could change from how much energy (production) comes from the sun, or by changing how we emit energy.

51. But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F). The Greenhouse Effect (Is this controversial?) SUN Earth Based on conservation of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F). This surface temperature, which is higher than expected from simple conservation of energy, is due to the atmosphere. The atmosphere distributes the energy vertically; making the surface warmer, and the upper atmosphere cooler, which maintains energy conservation. This greenhouse effect in not controversial.

52. But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F). The Greenhouse Effect (Is this controversial?) SUN Earth Based on conservation of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F). This surface temperature, which is higher than expected from simple conservation of energy, is due to the atmosphere. The atmosphere distributes the energy vertically; making the surface warmer, and the upper atmosphere cooler, which maintains energy conservation. We are making the atmosphere “thicker.” This greenhouse effect in not controversial.

53. Some aspects of the greenhouse effect Greenhouse warming is part of the Earth’s natural climate system. –It’s like a blanket – it holds heat near the surface for a while before it returns to space. Water is the dominant greenhouse gas. Carbon dioxide is a natural greenhouse gas. –We are adding at the margin – adding some blankets Or perhaps closing the window that is cracked open. N 2 0, CH 4, CFCs,... also important. But in much smaller quantities. –Molecule per molecule stronger than CO 2 We have been calculating greenhouse warming for a couple of centuries now.

54. Greenhouse gases (GHG) Earth's most abundant greenhouse gases –water vapor (H 2 O) –carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) –methane (CH 4 ) –nitrous oxide (NO 2 ), commonly known as "laughing gas" –ozone (O 3 ) –chlorofluorocarbons (CFCs) Ranked by their contribution to the greenhouse effect, the most important ones are: –water vapor, which contributes 36–70% –carbon dioxide, which contributes 9–26% –methane, which contributes 4–9% –ozone, which contributes 3–7% What are the atmospheric lifetimes of the GHGs?atmospheric lifetimes

55. The theoretical foundation is the conservation of energy If we change a greenhouse gas e.g. CO 2, we change the loss rate. For some amount of time we see that the Earth is NOT in balance, that is ΔT/Δt is not zero, temperature changes.

56. Conservation (continuity) principle Energy from the Sun Energy emitted by Earth (proportional to T) Earth at a certain temperature, T Stable Temperature of Earth could change from how much energy (production) comes from the sun, or by changing how we emit energy.

57. The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy We reach a new equilibrium Changing a greenhouse gas changes this

58. But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F). The sun-earth system (What is the balance at the surface of Earth?) SUN Earth Based on conservation of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F). What else could be happening in this system? This greenhouse effect in not controversial.

59. Conservation of Energy The heating could change. That is the sun, the distance from the sun,....

60. The first place that we apply the conservation principle is energy We reach a new equilibrium Changes in orbit or solar energy changes this Can we measure the imbalance when the Earth is not in equilibrium?

61. Still there are many unanswered questions We know that CO 2 in the atmosphere holds thermal energy close to the surface. Hence, more CO 2 will increase surface temperature. –Upper atmosphere will cool. –How will the Earth respond? Is there any reason for Earth to respond to maintain the same average surface temperature? Why those big oscillations in the past? –They are linked to solar variability. –Release and capture of CO 2 by ocean plausibly amplifies the solar oscillation. Solubility pump Biological pump What about the relation between CO 2 and T in the last 1000 years? –Look to T (temperature) variability forced by factors other than CO 2 Volcanic Activity Solar variability CO 2 increase Radiative forcing other than CO 2 ? –Other greenhouse gases –Aerosols (particulates in the atmosphere)

62. Radiative Balance of The Earth Over some suitable time period, say a year, maybe ten years, if the Earth’s temperature is stable then the amount of energy that comes into the Earth must equal the amount of energy that leaves the Earth. –Energy comes into the Earth from solar radiation. –Energy leaves the Earth by terrestrial (mostly infrared) radiation to space. (Think about your car or house in the summer.)

63. Today Scientific investigation of the Earth’s climate: Foundational information –Observations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) –Behavior of CO 2 and Temperature –CO 2 balance in the atmosphere Think about how to “fix” the problem –Conservation Principle –Radiative Balance –Earth System

64. Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUNEARTH EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE

65. Focus attention on the surface of the Earth

66. Simple earth 1

67. Radiation Balance Figure

68. Radiative Balance (Trenberth et al. 2009)Trenberth et al. 2009

69. Let’s build up this picture Follow the energy through the Earth’s climate. As we go into the climate we will see that energy is transferred around. –From out in space we could reduce it to just some effective temperature, but on Earth we have to worry about transfer of energy between thermal energy and motion of wind and water.

70. But the Earth’s surface temperature is observed to be, on average, about 15 C (~59 F). The sun-earth system (What is the balance at the surface of Earth?) SUN Earth Based on conservation of energy: If the Earth did NOT have an atmosphere, then, the temperature at the surface of the Earth would be about -18 C ( ~ 0 F). Welcome Back Radiative Balance. This is conservation of energy, which is present in electromagnetic radiation.

71. Building the Radiative Balance What happens to the energy coming from the Sun? Energy is coming from the sun. Two things can happen at the surface. In can be: Reflected Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space Or Absorbed

72. Building the Radiative Balance What happens to the energy coming from the Sun? We also have the atmosphere. Like the surface, the atmosphere can: Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space Reflect or Absorb

73. Building the Radiative Balance What happens to the energy coming from the Sun? In the atmosphere, there are clouds which : Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space Reflect a lot Absorb some

74. Building the Radiative Balance What happens to the energy coming from the Sun? For convenience “hide” the sunbeam and reflected solar over in “RS” Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space RS

75. Building the Radiative Balance What happens to the energy coming from the Sun? Consider only the energy that has been absorbed. What happens to it? Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space RS

76. Building the Radiative Balance Conversion to terrestrial thermal energy. 1) It is converted from solar radiative energy to terrestrial thermal energy. (Like a transfer between accounts) Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space RS

77. Building the Radiative Balance Redistribution by atmosphere, ocean, etc. 2) It is redistributed by the atmosphere, ocean, land, ice, life. (Another transfer between accounts) Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space RS

78. Building the Radiative Balance Terrestrial energy is converted/partitioned into three sorts SURFACE 3) Terrestrial energy ends up in three reservoirs (Yet another transfer ) Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE CLOUD RS WARM AIR (THERMALS) PHASE TRANSITION OF WATER (LATENT HEAT) RADIATIVE ENERGY (infrared) It takes heat to Turn ice to water And water to “steam;” that is, vapor

79. Building the Radiative Balance Which is transmitted from surface to atmosphere SURFACE 3) Terrestrial energy ends up in three reservoirs Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE CLOUD RS (THERMALS)(LATENT HEAT) (infrared) CLOUD

80. Building the Radiative Balance And then the infrared radiation gets complicated SURFACE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE CLOUD RS (THERMALS)(LATENT HEAT) (infrared) CLOUD 1) Some goes straight to space 2) Some is absorbed by atmosphere and re-emitted downwards 3) Some is absorbed by clouds and re-emitted downwards 4) Some is absorbed by clouds and atmosphere and re-emitted upwards

81. Put it all together and this what you have got. The radiative balance

82. Thinking about the greenhouse A thought experiment of a simple system. SURFACE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE (infrared) 1)Let’s think JUST about the infrared radiation Forget about clouds for a while 2) More energy is held down here because of the atmosphere It is “warmer” 3) Less energy is up here because it is being held near the surface. It is “cooler”

83. Thinking about the greenhouse A thought experiment of a simple system. SURFACE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE (infrared) T effective 1)Remember we had this old idea of a temperature the Earth would have with no atmosphere. This was ~0 F. Call it the effective temperature. Let’s imagine this at some atmospheric height. 2) Down here it is warmer than T effective T > T effective 3) Up here it is cooler than T effective T < T effective

84. Thinking about the greenhouse Why does it get cooler up high? SURFACE Top of Atmosphere / Edge of Space ATMOSPHERE (infrared) 1) If we add more atmosphere, make it thicker, then 2) The part coming down gets a little larger. It gets warmer still. 3) The part going to space gets a little smaller It gets cooler still. The real problem is complicated by clouds, ozone, ….

85. So what matters? Things that change reflection Things that change absorption Changes in the sun If something can transport energy DOWN from the surface. THIS IS WHAT WE ARE DOING

86. Today Scientific investigation of the Earth’s climate: Foundational information –Observations of carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) –Behavior of CO 2 and Temperature –CO 2 balance in the atmosphere Think about how to “fix” the problem –Conservation Principle –Radiative Balance –Earth System

87. CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN

88. CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN Where absorption is important

89. CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN Where reflection is important

90. CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN Solar Variability

91. CLOUD-WORLD The Earth System ATMOSPHERE LAND OCEAN ICE (cryosphere) SUN Possibility of transport of energy down from the surface

92. From Warren Washington

93. Conservation equation Could you write the conservation equation, at least symbolically, for surface temperature and atmospheric carbon dioxide.

94. Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUN: ENERGY, HEATEARTH: ABSORBS ENERGY EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE

95. Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate SUNEARTH EARTH: EMITS ENERGY TO SPACE  BALANCE PLACE AN INSULATING BLANKET AROUND EARTH FOCUS ON WHAT IS HAPPENING AT THE SURFACE

96. Scientific investigation of Earth’s climate