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ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Anne, Yuan YiCarlos, Lam Chunwa Charlotte, Zhou ZitaoDaisy, Wu Ximin Ginger, Zhang JianfangJacky, Chen Yacheng.

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Presentation on theme: "ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Anne, Yuan YiCarlos, Lam Chunwa Charlotte, Zhou ZitaoDaisy, Wu Ximin Ginger, Zhang JianfangJacky, Chen Yacheng."— Presentation transcript:

1 ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Anne, Yuan YiCarlos, Lam Chunwa Charlotte, Zhou ZitaoDaisy, Wu Ximin Ginger, Zhang JianfangJacky, Chen Yacheng May, Chen YumeiYoyo, Io San Wa Business Plan

2 ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting Applied Business Project – Module V Market Potential Forecasting Presented By Carlos

3 ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast Assumption Market Timeline Customer average consumption is proportional to the inflation index

4 ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast MICE Industry Sales MICE Industry Revenue Forecast = No. of Travelers × Market Penetration Rate × Average Consumption Number of Travelers as Proxy Market Cycle Theory Adjusted by inflation index The initial MPR, 1.75%, is calculated as: the Q3 in 2011 MICE participants 129,780 divided by the Q3 number of tourists 7,416,000. MPR growth rate = 10% from 2008 to 2012, 30% from 2013 to 2017, 5% after 2018 Average Consumption = Inflation index * 10

5 ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast Inflation Forecast Model Validation ModelMSEMAPEMPE Naïve0.22600.00380.0014 Simple Average91.67490.07470.0371 Moving Average0.56760.00620.0027 Double Moving Average 0.17600.0034 -0.0013 Time Series65.60930.0789-0.0178 Multiple Regression1.74450.0114 -0.0002 Double Moving Average

6 ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast Travelers Forecast Model Validation ModelsMSEMAPEMPE Naïve27389.100.1008-0.0003 Simple Average477033.600.31550.2967 Moving Average22764.690.08800.0214 Double Moving Average38486.890.1161-0.0078 Time Series58231.430.1298-0.0209 Multiple Regression102720.700.1878-0.0622 Exponential Smoothing9035.310.05550.0048 Exponential Smoothing

7 ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast MICE Industry Sales

8 ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast ForeRunner’s Revenue Forecast ForeRunner Revenue Forecast (Marco Approach) Based on MICE Industry Revenue Market Share Forecast Factors - Customer Loyalty (Cl) - Customer Penetration (Cp) - Customer Selection (Cs) - Price Selection (Ps)

9 ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast Market Share Forecast StageIntroductionGrowthMaturity Customer Penetration 36.4%54%72.675% Customer Loyalty40%35%45%. Customer Selection60%75%80% Price Selection85%90%100% Forecasted Market Share7.43%12.75%26.16%

10 ForeRunner Integrity | Quality | Consistency Market Assessment Market Planning Investment Appraisal Market Potential Forecasting ForeRunner Revenue Forecast ForeRunner Revenue Forecast （ in thousands) Year Incentive Travel Sales 10%, constant Incentive Travel Sales 10% - 20% Incentive Travel Sales 10% - 30% 2012 4,925.715,219.985,514.25 2013 6,034.727,057.498,080.25 2014 16,348.1620,889.0125,429.70 2015 22,818.1331,622.4840,426.99 2016 31,806.3247,517.1263,227.92 2017 49,231.3578,871.02108,510.86 2018 63,136.96107,849.13152,561.29 2019 99,889.25181,403.38262,917.50 2020 108,342.00208,465.95308,589.90 2021 117,398.36238,582.34359,766.33 Forerunner will have a bright future! Forerunner’s revenue =Industry sales* Forerunner’s market share

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