1. Decision-making aspects in weather forecasting Training towards expertise PROJECT PHOENIX – a snapshot NOMEK 2011 Erik Hagemark Based on presentations by David Ball (Eumetcal NWP course 2007) and Jaymie Gadal, MSC (Eumetcal WS 2009)

2. 2 NO model output. – No charts – No viewers – No website access – No access to “official” forecasts Phoenix – The Experiment Three average forecasters separated from the operational forecasting room

3. Phoenix – The Experiment To determine if the human forecaster remained relevant in the forecast process: –measure of skill, without NWP –assess the strength and weakness of the forecaster To get an idea of what the Role of the Forecaster should be

4. Phoenix - Results

5. Phoenix - Conclusions Forecaster needs to know on a parameter-by- parameter basis when to intervene Operational routines must stress: –ADP prior to consultation of the models –Constant situational awareness Real-time verification more critical than previously Optimum Human/Machine mix remains unclear – no clear division of roles

6. Meteorologisk institutt met.no Phoenix – adding value: SKILL Forecaster NWP Limit of predictability Better Data Understanding the Science Technology/Tools Techniques Decision Making TIME

7. Meteorologisk institutt met.no Leonard Snellman, 1977 BAMS, Dec 2007 BAMS, Nov 2006