Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Presentation is loading. Please wait.

Developing Policy: Simulating a Year of Care for People with Long Term Conditions Claire Cordeaux Executive Director, Healthcare.

Published byValentine Wright Modified over 9 years ago

Similar presentations

Presentation on theme: "Developing Policy: Simulating a Year of Care for People with Long Term Conditions Claire Cordeaux Executive Director, Healthcare."— Presentation transcript:

1 Developing Policy: Simulating a Year of Care for People with Long Term Conditions Claire Cordeaux Executive Director, Healthcare

2 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 We know the problem… 15m people with Long Term Conditions Increasing each year with ageing population Responsible for 70% of NHS costs Significant cause of ED attendance and urgent admission

3 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 Driving Policy through Funding Instruments A year of care capitation fund for a person living with multiple conditions Incentivizing providers and commissioners to work effectively together Aligning funding flows and patient need for support Improving outcomes and efficiency Reducing emergency care activity

4 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 The underlying research base Scottish School of Primary Care More people have 2 or more long term conditions

5 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 Long Term Conditions Only 18% of patients with COPD have just COPD Only 14% of patients with diabetes have just diabetes Only 5% of patients with dementia have just dementia Scottish School of Primary Care

6 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 Silo treatment vs. whole person Sir John Oldham, DH

7 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 What if? We plan care for people rather than disease? Are there common patterns of service use? Can we differentiate groups of patients by need and costs to create an annual tariff? Can we work within that tariff to reduce emergencies and manage care out of hospital?

8 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 Where does simulation help? Modelling uncertainty Testing assumptions and their consistency when no historic data Considering variability Driving thinking Sharing models

9 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 Our task Create a simulation model 7 pilot sites 1 national model to be used locally Looking for common parameters

10 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 Starting to simulate a new approach Services “consumed” Assessment of Need Patients at Risk Exacerbation

11 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 Using Scenario Generator Pathways Scenarios Whole system model Simulation results Service points, flows & waits Service models Referral patterns Capacity Duration Population Demography Prevalence Prevalence/ Influencing factors Demographic weighting Population Constrained resources Mental Health Social Care Urgent Planned Maternity Urgent

12 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 Patient identification and assessment

13 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 Services by level of need

14 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 Validation 3 sites to date PathwayStepActual dataSimulated data% Risk Stratification and AssessmentLow Need Assessment 792 8120.98 Risk Stratification and Assessment Medium Need Assessment 118 1.00 Risk Stratification and AssessmentHigh Need Assessment 9 90.96 High NeedAcute admission881.06 High NeedA&E11101.10 High NeedElective admission331.05 High NeedFirst Outpatients560.78 Low NeedAcute admission2142031.05 Low NeedExacerbation4544451.02 Low Need First Outpatient appointment4514421.02 Low NeedElective inpatient2322440.95 Low NeedOutpatient Follow up7137170.99 Medium NeedAcute admission64 1.00 Medium NeedExacerbation94 1.00 Medium NeedElective admissions20 0.99 Medium NeedFirst Outpatient56 1.00 Medium NeedOutpatient Follow up85870.98 Medium NeedReablement10

15 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 Some findings Probability Low Need Medium Need High Need First Outpatient17%12%12.5% Outpatient Follow-Up27%18%15% ED17%25%19.3% Admission46%68%73% Death in ED4.60%0% Death in inpatient7.50%17%0 Social care0%10%100%

16 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 But…… No real correlation between risk score and level of need Assessment of Need Patients at Risk

17 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 And……….. Dr. Abraham George A crisis curve?

18 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 Meanwhile End of Life – modelling death Highest number of deaths = organ failure (32%) Same group of patients with long term conditions

19 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 So where are we now?.. Year 2 A new model Predict demand by –risk score –numbers of long term conditions

20 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 So where are we now ctd?.. Year 2 Consistent definitions of services being accessed Able to calculate probability of access to services by long term condition groups % % % % Patient Outpatients Community Services AdmissionA&E Death New LTC Group % %

21 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 So where are we now ctd?.. Year 2 Include changing state of patients –Numbers of long term conditions –Low to very high

22 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 What the simulation does… Informs question development and data collection Allows experimentation and hypothesis testing where no historic data available Enables research evidence to be applied to policy and practice development Shares national assumptions meaningfully at local level Reduces risks in policy development by generating evidence for decisions

23 SIMUL8 Corporation | SIMUL8.com | info@SIMUL8.com 1 800 547 6024 | +44 141 552 6888 Questions? Claire.c@simul8.com Executive Director, Healthcare, SIMUL8 Corporation

Download ppt "Developing Policy: Simulating a Year of Care for People with Long Term Conditions Claire Cordeaux Executive Director, Healthcare."

Similar presentations

Everybody’s Business Integrated mental health services for older adults A service development guide.

Everybody’s Business Integrated mental health services for older adults A service development guide.
Achieving the 18 week maximum wait Tom Bowen The Balance of Care Group www.balanceofcare.com Routledge Health Management Conference 14 September 2006.

Achieving the 18 week maximum wait Tom Bowen The Balance of Care Group Routledge Health Management Conference 14 September 2006.
Welcome to the new acute and community County Durham and Darlington NHS Foundation Trust Clinical strategy FT member events April 2011.

Welcome to the new acute and community County Durham and Darlington NHS Foundation Trust Clinical strategy FT member events April 2011.
Health Innovation Exchange

Health Innovation Exchange
Wigan Borough Risk Stratification Wayne Sanders Jonathan Kerry.

Wigan Borough Risk Stratification Wayne Sanders Jonathan Kerry.
Integrated Intelligence in Kent Dr Abraham P George Consultant / Asst Dir in Public Health

Integrated Intelligence in Kent Dr Abraham P George Consultant / Asst Dir in Public Health
Interpreting the Commissioning for Value Packs

Interpreting the Commissioning for Value Packs
Melanie Corish, Programme Director, Modernising Mental Health New Mental Health Services for Bristol.

Melanie Corish, Programme Director, Modernising Mental Health New Mental Health Services for Bristol.
Delivering the 18 Weeks Referral to Treatment Time Standard Nicki McNaney Programme Director Access Support Team.

Delivering the 18 Weeks Referral to Treatment Time Standard Nicki McNaney Programme Director Access Support Team.
Acute Bed Simulation Russell Emeny, Fiona Lindsay, Claire Cordeaux Thanks to Terry Young, Sally Brailsford and Joe Viana.

Acute Bed Simulation Russell Emeny, Fiona Lindsay, Claire Cordeaux Thanks to Terry Young, Sally Brailsford and Joe Viana.
Measuring Cost and Impact Nick Hex Project Director 28 March 2012.

Measuring Cost and Impact Nick Hex Project Director 28 March 2012.
Right First Time: Update. Overview Making sure Sheffield residents continue to get the best possible health services is the aim of a new partnership between.

Right First Time: Update. Overview Making sure Sheffield residents continue to get the best possible health services is the aim of a new partnership between.
In Search of Efficiency, Consistency, Fairness, and Impact in HTA: Modelling screening and treatment pathways for diabetic retinopathy Graham Scotland.

In Search of Efficiency, Consistency, Fairness, and Impact in HTA: Modelling screening and treatment pathways for diabetic retinopathy Graham Scotland.
“Our Health, Our Care, Our Future” NHS Lothian Draft Strategic Plan 2014-2024.

“Our Health, Our Care, Our Future” NHS Lothian Draft Strategic Plan
Jan Hull Acting Director of Development

Jan Hull Acting Director of Development
PCT Progress & Intentions Audley-Jones Practices TTL 3 December 2008.

PCT Progress & Intentions Audley-Jones Practices TTL 3 December 2008.
Economic Issues in the NHS John Appleby Chief Economist King’s Fund.

Economic Issues in the NHS John Appleby Chief Economist King’s Fund.
ISB Notice and preparing for the implementation of the new IAPT Data Standard Shaun Crowe Mental Health, Employment and IAPT Mental Health Collaborative.

ISB Notice and preparing for the implementation of the new IAPT Data Standard Shaun Crowe Mental Health, Employment and IAPT Mental Health Collaborative.
Commissioning for Outcomes 7-day services across the community Paul Maubach Chief Accountable Officer Dudley CCG.

Commissioning for Outcomes 7-day services across the community Paul Maubach Chief Accountable Officer Dudley CCG.
Public Health contribution towards LTC Year of Care Commissioning Model Dr Abraham P. George Consultant / Asst Director in Public Health Kent County Council.

Public Health contribution towards LTC Year of Care Commissioning Model Dr Abraham P. George Consultant / Asst Director in Public Health Kent County Council.

Similar presentations

Ads by Google