1. Report to Board of Education January 10, 2012

2. 1.How might we accurately predict the enrollment trends for the future? 2.How might our buildings best be used to plan for that uncertain future? Strategic Plan Action Plan 4.B.1.c: Develop a build plan based on up-to-date forecasts that will inform SPLOST and other revenue needs.

3. 12%  1%  7%  Since 2007 = 31% growth

4. Research = no refereed journals Our own Enrollment Data Other Data Sources  Pre-K wait lists  Homebuilding Data  Census Data

5. Enrollment Calculation for Kindergarten Sum of 2010-2011 Kindergarten and 2011-2012 Kindergarten enrollment Sum of 2005-2006 and 2006-2007 live births Sum of 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 grade one Sum of 2009-2010 and 2010-2011 Kindergarten Enrollment Calculation for Other Grade Levels Example: grade one

6. Two-year Cohort Ratio 2011-2012 actual 2012-2013 projection 2013-2014 projection 2014-2015 projection 2015-2016 projection 3,2463,5743,9054,2184,538 One-year Cohort Ratio 2011-2012 actual 2012-2013 projection 2013-2014 projection 2014-2015 projection 2015-2016 projection 3,2463,6303,9674,2834,599

7. One-year Cohort Ratio Grade LevelSeptember, 2011Projection September 2012 K 353 1 st 313 373 2 nd 302 339 3 rd 270 298 4 th 256 297 5 th 241 284 6 th 228 288 7 th 232 239 8 th 226 243 9 th 260 275 10 th 218 259 11 th 188 209 12 th 159 174 Total 3,246 3,630

8. Pre-Kindergarten Data PreK 2010-2011 K 2011-2012 Differenc e Clairemont Elementary4223.46%7923.65%0.19% Glennwood Elementary2916.20%5717.07%0.86% Oakhurst Elementary6737.43%11434.13%-3.30% Winnona Park Elementary4122.91%8425.15%2.24% 2011-2012 Pre-Kindergarten Wait List 53 residents 8 courtesy tuition 2010-2011 Pre-Kindergarten Wait List 40 residents 7 courtesy tuition Pre-K enrollment zones are a valid predictor of Kindergarten enrollment zones.

9. Homebuilding Data Lenore Street development9 housesEstimated completion August 2012 South Candler development9 housesEstimated completion December 2012 Midway Road development26 housesEstimated completion January 2013 Source: Amanda Thompson, City of Decatur

10. 2010 Census Data % Δ % Δ under 5 % Δ 5- 9 YO % Δ 10- 14 YO 3.22%15.38%-1.52%-15.19% % Δ % Δ under 5 % Δ 5-9 YO % Δ 10- 14 YO 8.65%83.13%29.36%-15.72% % Δ % Δ under 5 % Δ 5-9 YO % Δ 10- 14 YO 14.03%28.51%117.58%68.82% % Δ % Δ under 5 % Δ 5-9 YO % Δ 10- 14 YO -3.11%16.44%40.59%-5.36%

11. Growth of Young Learners City of Decatur percent Δ 2000- 2010 City Schools of Decatur percent Δ 2000- 2010 0-5 year olds34.41%93.96% 5-9 year olds34.08%43.20% For 0-5 population, used proxy of Kindergarten growth from 2000-2011; for 5-9 year olds assumed growth in 1 st -3 rd grades from 2000-2011

12. Using current grade level enrollments and placing those enrollments into the next grade level Using one-year cohort ratios combined with qualitative interviews Discovery: city birth rate data available from Department of Public Health

13. Survey and Focus Group with Realtors Oakhurst could be 33% through transition South side has higher density South side attracts more families with younger children Summer is busiest move-in time

14. The short-term overall recommendation of the Enrollment Committee is to not re-zone or open up additional buildings for the 2012-2013 school year. CSD will continue to transfer students between K-3 buildings that cannot manage their zoned enrollments. Class sizes for 1 st grade 2012-2013 will resemble the class sizes for Kindergarten 2011-2012. One trailer would stay at each school: Oakhurst and Winnona Park. Candidates for paying tuition for Kindergarten and 1 st grade will not be informed of their status until July 11, 2012, thus allowing summer resident registrations to subside. Assumptions:

15. Three Categories  Processes to improve projections  Strategies to accommodate growth  Educational opportunities for the community

16.  Recommendation 1a: Develop an annual process involving stakeholders to validate enrollment projection formula with other data sources.  Recommendation 1b: Institute a Pre- Registration tracking process on CSD website.  Recommendation 1c: Strategically publicize Pre-Registration tracking process with realtors and City of Decatur. Processes to improve projections

17. Recommendation 2a: Consider how College Heights and Westchester could serve some birth-grade 3 students. Strategies to accommodate growth Sub- recommendation 2a-1: Consider adding K-3 classrooms at College Heights and opening Westchester as a birth-grade 3 school with a small enrollment zone. Sub- recommendation 2a-2: Consider opening Westchester as a preschool-grade 3 school with a small enrollment zone. Sub- recommendation 2a-3: Consider opening Westchester as a Controlled Choice preschool- grade 3 school. Sub- recommendation 2a-4: Consider opening Westchester as a Controlled Choice K-3 school.

18. College HeightsOakhurstWestchester Sub-recommendation 2a-1Birth-grade 3Addition maybe laterBirth-grade 3 Sub-recommendation 2a-2Birth-age 4Addition high urgencyAge 3-grade 3 Sub-recommendation 2a-3Birth-age 4Addition high urgencyAge 3-grade 3 controlled choice Sub-recommendation 2a-4Birth-age 4Addition medium urgencyK-3 controlled choice Recommendation 2: Summary Matrix Strategies to accommodate growth

19. Recommendation 2b: Begin addition to FAVE to accommodate system-wide growth Strategies to accommodate growth FAVE was designed in 2009-2010, a year of 1% enrollment growth following years of 4% and 7% growth respectively. At that time, it was not foreseeable that years of 7% and 12% growth respectively were to come.

20. Recommendation 3a: Host Enrollment Zone Information night. Educational opportunities for the community