1. Leadership and International Climate Change Cooperation: From Copenhagen to Paris Charles Parker & Christer Karlsson Department of Government, Uppsala University Centre for Natural Disaster Science (CNDS), Uppsala University

2. Key Questions: What is the role of leadership in the climate negotiations ? Are there any leaders in the field of climate change and, if so, who are they? What leadership visions do they espouse? How do followers select climate leaders? How will leadership impact the outcome in Paris?

3. Climate Change Leaders and Followers

4. Leadership is “a relationship between leaders and followers” (Underdal,1994:181) Change the pay-offs by rewarding cooperative behaviour or punishing non-cooperative behaviour Change the fundamental preferences through consciousness-raising (supplying new knowledge, proposing new solutions etc.) Lead by example, thereby removing uncertainty and proving that proposed solutions actually work

5. Leadership recognition, main actors COP 14-20, 2008-2014 (percentages) 2008 COP14 2009 COP15 2010 COP16 2011 COP17 2012 COP18 2013 COP19 2014 COP20 Diff. 2008-14 EU as leader 624645505148 -14 China as leader 47485250484248+1 G-77 as leader 27221933242522-5 US as leader 27535042394252+25 N=3175

6. EU as leaderUS as leaderChina as leader 200820142008201420082014 Delegates585119465044 Non-delegates664532574451 All624827524748

7. (1) Providing structural leadership: ability to provide resources and inducements (2) Providing ideational leadership: ability to provide new ideas and solutions for dealing with the climate change problem (3) Directional leadership (leading by example): ability to demonstrate a credible domestic climate change policy (4) Instrumental leadership: ability to act as a broker to bridge problems in the negotiations (5) Promoting the common good: overall commitment to solving the climate change problem (6) Self-interest: Promoting/defending own country’s interests Leadership factors – what motivates followers to support a particular leader?

8. AfricaAsiaEurope North America S&L America OceaniaAll Structural leadership5.535.295.125.265.485.355.29 Directional leadership5.595.475.585.635.555.825.57 Ideational leadership5.835.575.485.595.935.945.62 Instrumental leadership5.525.145.765.635.776.075.56 Self-interest4.624.643.864.544.494.484.37 Common good6.256.076.236.136.216.296.15 Importance of factors for leadership recognition 2009-2011, by region (means) Total number of respondents = 1579. The 95% confidence interval is 0.11--0.21

9. (1) No one clear-cut leader (2) Fragmented leadership landscape (3) Mismatch between supply and demand for leadership, for example, COP 15 in Copenhagen (4) Promoting the common good is key for gaining recognition as climate change leader (5) No single mode is sufficient if one is to be recognized as a leader Main Findings

10. Paris Agreement? Paris Agreement: Will be a blend of the leadership visions of China, the EU, and the US Emerging “hybrid” architecture Institutional Design is likely to be a blend of bottom-up and top-down elements that balances national flexibility and international accountability to achieve broad participation but meaningful ambition.

12. What’s Next? COP 21: Paris (30 Nov-11 Dec. 2015). Prep meeting (Oct.). Heads of state meeting (27 Sept.). World Bank (Oct.) Parties are communicating their “intended nationally determined contributions” to the new Paris agreement (68 submissions). Agree to text on new climate agreement by end of COP 21 meeting in Paris, France. Hope: Incremental Progress, Not Perfection Fear: Too Slow Reality: Paris is an important step, but not a final destination