1. Why the African Initiative needs a research component … and a suggested framework Mitch Moncrieff Cloud Systems Group NCAR/MMM African Initiative Workshop, NCAR, July 6-7 2006

2. Introduction During past decades China, and more recently India, benefited immensely from scientific collaboration with the developed nations in weather-climate research, especially numerical modeling & field experiment activities During past decades China, and more recently India, benefited immensely from scientific collaboration with the developed nations in weather-climate research, especially numerical modeling & field experiment activities Africa has yet to benefit to a comparable degree Africa has yet to benefit to a comparable degree There is a framework for a research component for the African Initiative based on the following: a) NCAR’s research and modeling infrastructure; b) the international AMMA program There is a framework for a research component for the African Initiative based on the following: a) NCAR’s research and modeling infrastructure; b) the international AMMA program

3. One of Earth’s 3 major convective heat sources, Africa as an integral part of Earth’s climate One of Earth’s 3 major convective heat sources, Africa as an integral part of Earth’s climate Africa’s precipitation regimes are important in the weather context Africa’s precipitation regimes are important in the weather context African monsoon is a unique example of inter-annual variability of climate African monsoon is a unique example of inter-annual variability of climate

4. Why are convective systems over the U.S. continent and West Africa similar ? Laing and Fritsch (1997) … fundamental role of mesoscale convective systems (Moncrieff & Liu 2006)

5. Ingredients of the dynamical similarity Scale-interaction between convective systems and tropical easterly waves (c.f., synoptic waves over US) Scale-interaction between convective systems and tropical easterly waves (c.f., synoptic waves over US) Genesis of convective systems in Ethiopian Highlands (c.f., Continental Divide) Genesis of convective systems in Ethiopian Highlands (c.f., Continental Divide) Propagating systems in the Tropical Easterly Jet, African Easterly Jet (c.f., westerly shear over US) Propagating systems in the Tropical Easterly Jet, African Easterly Jet (c.f., westerly shear over US) Diurnal-cycle convoluted with propagating cloud-systems Diurnal-cycle convoluted with propagating cloud-systems Representing mesoscale convective organization in parameterizations for climate models & global NWP models Representing mesoscale convective organization in parameterizations for climate models & global NWP models … i.e, Research results for US translate directly to Africa

6. S olar-heated elevated terrain, convective organization, propagation and shear … Initiation over mountains Far-fieldpropagation Cumulo-nimbus Systems travel for 1000’s km Elevated solar heating determines start position & start time of traveling convection Mesoscaledowndraft MCS: a family of cumulonimbus Shear: a key organizing effect

7. Summertime convection over the continental US simulated (MM5) and compared to radar observations

8. Simulated precipitation from traveling convective systems Cloud-system resolving model (CSRM) NEXRAD analysis (Carbone et al. 2002) 10-km: Betts-Miller parameterization 10-km explicit : no convective param.

9. Simulated precipitation (CSRM) Mountains Plains

10. C Mesoscsale downdraft latent heating evaporative cooling Numerical simulation Dynamical model

11. + = L Parameterizedconvectiveheating Mesoscale heating & momentumtransport Mesoscale downdraft cooling Stratiformheating Dynamictriggering Upscale evolution of convective organization New hybrid parameterization of convective organization Stage 1: onset Stage 2: multicell families Stage 3: mesoscale circulation n n n + 1 n n + 2 …

12. Parameterization ‘Ordinary’ convectionOrganized convection

13. African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analysis (AMMA) is a comprehensive international framework Full description: see presentation by Prof. Chris Thorncroft (SUNY/Albany): co-chair, International Steering Committee for AMMA \

14. African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Analyses Afrikanske Monsun: Multidisiplinære Analyser Afrikaanse Moesson Multidisciplinaire Analyse Analisi Multidisciplinare per il Monsone Africano Afrikanischer Monsun: Multidisziplinäre Analysen   Analisis Multidiciplinar de los Monzones Africanos   Analyses Multidisciplinaires de la Mousson Africaine

15. Objectives of AMMA International To improve our understanding of the West African Monsoon (WAM) and its influence on the physical, chemical & biological environment regionally and globally. To provide the underpinning science that relates variability of the WAM to issues of health, water resources, food security & demography for West African nations and defining and implementing relevant monitoring & prediction strategies. To ensure that the multidisciplinary research carried out in AMMA is effectively integrated with prediction & decision making activity.

16. Global SST Teleconnections Mesoscale Convective Systems Convective Cells Monsoon System Easterly waves GG SST Variability Global Mesoscale Regional Local YearSeasonDay Hour Major River Basins Catchments Vegetation Pools Vegetation 10 4 km 10 3 km 10 2 km 10 1 km SOP EOP LOP SATELLITESSATELLITES OBSERVATIONSOBSERVATIONS M O D E L L I N G / F O R E C A S T S A multiscale approach Downscaling for impact studies Scale Interactions Water vapor transport Trace gas, aerosols, etc Simulation and dynamical modeling fits here fits here

17. 1. AMMA International To reach AMMA aims, need to coordinate -Science (Challenge: disciplines, scales) -Implementation (Obs, Model,..) -Data archive and sharing -Funding issues ACMAD AGRYMET African Univ ASECNA CERMES DMN, DHN,, EIER, others... Others in Europe INTEO,... France CATCH White Book AMMA-API UK NERC DABEX DODO Germany IMPETUS VOLTA USA ARM-DOE NOAA NASA Pan-african initiative (PIAF) EU Integrated Project

18. ISSC Links with International Programmes (WCRP, IGBP, THORPEX,..) ST4 Capacity building and training WG1 WG2 WG3 WG4 WG5 WAM & global climate (including aerosol/chemistry) Water cycle Land surface-atmosphere- ocean feedbacks Prediction of climate impacts Prediction of high-impact weather Integrative Science TT1 Radio soundings TT2a Surface Layer TT3 Gourma site TT4 Niamey site TT5 Ouémé site TT6 Oceaic campaigns TT7 SOP-Dry season TT8 SOP-Monsoon season TT9SOP-Downstream ST2 incl AOC ST3 Database ST1 EOP/LOP Obs implementation ICIGTT2b Aerosol & Radiation ARM

19. Variability in the WAM impacts the US Flooding in New Orleans due to Katrina (courtesy NOAA) Bonnie (05) Charlie (05) Frances (05) Ivan (05) Courtesy A. Aiyyer

20. In summary … AMMA – international with strong research and outreach already established after many years of work – Europe, UK & US are major players in the field phase AMMA – international with strong research and outreach already established after many years of work – Europe, UK & US are major players in the field phase UCAR-AAAS African Initiative could help AMMA strategic goals that might otherwise be difficult to maintain after the field phase is completed UCAR-AAAS African Initiative could help AMMA strategic goals that might otherwise be difficult to maintain after the field phase is completed Research by NCAR scientists and its modeling infra- structure is a contribution to AMMA and potentially to the UCAR/AAAS African Initiative Research by NCAR scientists and its modeling infra- structure is a contribution to AMMA and potentially to the UCAR/AAAS African Initiative