1. BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu ENGR-25_Catenary_Tutorial_Part-1.ppt 1 Bruce Mayer, PE ENGR/MTH/PHYS25: Computational Methods Bruce Mayer, PE Registered Electrical & Mechanical Engineer BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu Engineering 25 Monte Carlo vs. PERT Tutorial

2. BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu ENGR-25_Catenary_Tutorial_Part-1.ppt 2 Bruce Mayer, PE ENGR/MTH/PHYS25: Computational Methods NO Time Machines Allowed  In the Lecture on Monte Carlo Methods we allowed NEGATIVES in the Simulation  Someone might point out that no matter how hard we work we can not MAKE time We can only USE it!  ReDo the simulation withOUT negative Times

3. BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu ENGR-25_Catenary_Tutorial_Part-1.ppt 3 Bruce Mayer, PE ENGR/MTH/PHYS25: Computational Methods Recall WhareHouse PERT chart 1. Project Start 2 3 4567 1. Project End A B C D EFGH  The Schedule Elements E.Install PreCast Parts on Foundation F.Build Roof G.Finish Interior and Exterior H.Inspect Result A.Excavate Foundation B.Construct Foundation C.Fabricate PreCast Components D.Ship PreCast Parts to Building Site

4. BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu ENGR-25_Catenary_Tutorial_Part-1.ppt 4 Bruce Mayer, PE ENGR/MTH/PHYS25: Computational Methods Possibility of Negative Times  A Small MeanDuration:StdDev ratio indicates a higher probability of NEGATIVE duration Task ID Task Description Mean Duration (days) Std Dev (days) A Foundation Excavation 3.5 1 B Pour Foundation 2.5 0.5 C Fab PreCast Elements 5 1 D Ship PreCast Parts 0.5 E Tilt-Up PreCast Parts 5 1.5 F Roofing 2 1 G Finish Work 4 1 Expected Duration = 17 Days

5. BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu ENGR-25_Catenary_Tutorial_Part-1.ppt 5 Bruce Mayer, PE ENGR/MTH/PHYS25: Computational Methods 5000-Trials  Look for Negatives

6. BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu ENGR-25_Catenary_Tutorial_Part-1.ppt 6 Bruce Mayer, PE ENGR/MTH/PHYS25: Computational Methods Expected Standard Deviation  Find the Expected Standard Deviation by Geometric (or Pythagorean) Calculation  In This case take the Std Dev from the GATING item A+B to find:

7. BMayer@ChabotCollege.edu ENGR-25_Catenary_Tutorial_Part-1.ppt 7 Bruce Mayer, PE ENGR/MTH/PHYS25: Computational Methods Compare Lack of Time Machine  Review and Run Files: Monte_Carlo_Wharehouse.m –Can MAKE time Monte_Carlo_Wharehouse_No_Negatives.m –Can NOT make time A “Flux Capacitor”