1. Economic Outlook December 2014 Economic Policy Division

2. U.S. GDP Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1980 to Q4 2015 Real GDP Trillion 2009 Dollars Log Scale $15.0 $9.0 $18.0 $12.5 $6.5 Forecast

3. U.S. GDP per Capita: Actual and Potential Quarterly, Q1 1980 to Q3 2014 2009 Dollars

4. U.S. GDP: Estimates of Potential Quarterly, Q1 1980 to Q4 2017

5. Comparing Recessions Trough GDP Loss (Peak to Trough) Duration of Recession GDP Growth in the following year GDP Growth in the following 3 years Months from end of recession until we reached prior employment peak Months from end of recession until GDP reached potential May 1954 (II) -2.5 (%)10 (months)7.9 (%) 4.0132 April 1958 (II) -3.189.6 4.2124 February 1961 (I) -0.5107.5 5.810 November 1970 (IV) -0.2114.5 5.265 March 1975 (I) -3.2166.2 4.5913 November 1982 (IV) -2.6167.7 5.81220 March 1991(I)-1.482.6 3.22325 November 2001 (IV)+0.781.9 2.93913 June 2009 (II)-4.7182.5 2.259NA

6. Real GDP Outlook

7. Real Personal Consumption Expenditures Personal Consumption Outlook

8. Real Disposable Personal Income

9. Household Net Worth Household Wealth

10. Household Net Worth Household Wealth

11. Household Balance Sheet Household Assets Household Liabilities

12. Consumer Debt Service

13. Domestic Bank Lending

14. Consumer Confidence

15. Auto & Light Truck Sales

16. Housing Market Trends Housing Starts Median Home Prices Home Sales Housing Affordability Index

17. Housing Market Trends Housing Inventory Mortgage Delinquency and Foreclosure Rates

18. Real Business Fixed Investment

19. Investment Drivers Industrial Production Capacity Utilization

20. Sector Indicators ATA Truck Tonnage Index Total Rail Carloadings Boxboard Production Monthly Leasing and Finance Index

21. Domestic Bank Lending

22. Business Confidence ISM Manufacturing Index

23. Oil

24. Natural Gas

25. Labor Market Total Nonfarm Jobs Initial Unemployment Claims Unemployment Rate November 5.8% Household Employment

26. Civilian Participation Rate Duration of Unemployment Part-time for Economic Reasons Discouraged Workers Labor Market

27. Employment-Population Ratio Percent

28. Labor Market

30. Interest Rate Spreads Risk Spread Moody's Seasoned Baa Corporate Bond Yield Minus Moody's Seasoned Aaa Corporate Bond Yield Yield Spread 10-Year Treasury – 3 month Treasury TED Spread 3-Month LIBOR Minus 3-Month Treasury

31. Fed Policy Bank Assets and Liabilities

32. U.S. Trade Real Net Exports of Goods and Services U.S. Nominal Trade Weighted Exchange Rate

33. Eurozone Growth and Jobs Source: Oxford Economics

34. Eurozone Monetary Policy Source: Oxford Economics

35. European Growth Source: Oxford Economics

36. United Kingdom Growth and Jobs Source: Oxford Economics

37. Emerging Markets Real GDP

38. Deficit to GDP CBO’s Baseline Deficit (August 2014) Budget Deficit

39. Government Baseline Outside Debt (CBO’s Baseline – August 2014) Debt to GDP Debt

40. Government Gross Debt (CBO’s Baseline – August 2014) Gross Debt to GDP Gross Debt

41. Government Revenues and Outlays ( percent of GDP) Source: CBO Baseline (August 2014)

42. Discretionary Entitlements Net Interest Government Outlays

43. Social Security Medicare Medicaid Income Security Other Spending Mandatory Spending Social Security Medicare Medicaid Income Security Other Spending

44. FY 2013 Revenues and Outlays Outlays Source: CBO Mandatory (entitlements and net interest) Discretionary

45. FY 2024 Revenues and Outlays Outlays Source: CBO Mandatory (entitlements and net interest) Discretionary

46. Individual Income Tax Social Insurance Taxes Corporate Income Tax Other Taxes Government Revenues by Source