1. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 1 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Hydrological Modeling Andrew D. Gronewold

2. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 2 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 2 Objectives 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk

3. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 3 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 3 Objective 1: Management support Example: Advanced hydrologic prediction system (AHPS)

4. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 4 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 4 Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) Derivative outlooks weighting software Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM) Large Lake Thermodynamics Model (LLTM) Mid-Lakes Routing Model (MLRM) Thiessen polygon software Great Lakes Hydrometeorological Station Directory Database Probabilistic violation assessment tool (ProVAsT) Products

5. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 5 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 5 Government agencies: United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Environment Canada (EC) United States Geological Survey (USGS) United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Management authorities and utilities: New York Power Authority (NYPA) Ontario Power Generation (OPG) Academic and research institutions: University of Michigan Wayne State University Case Western Reserve University Duke University Western Michigan University Other academic institutions Stakeholders and partners

6. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 6 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 6 Objectives 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk

7. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 7 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 7 Objective 2: Data management

8. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 8 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level

9. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 9 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 9 Great Lakes Advanced Hydrologic Prediction System (AHPS) Large Basin Runoff Model (LBRM) Derivative outlooks weighting software Distributed Large Basin Runoff Model (DLBRM) Large Lake Thermodynamics Model (LLTM) Mid-Lakes Routing Model (MLRM) Thiessen polygon software Great Lakes Hydrometeorological Station Directory Database Probabilistic violation assessment tool (ProVAsT) Products

10. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 10 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 10 Government agencies: United States Army Corps of Engineers (USACE) Environment Canada (EC) United States Geological Survey (USGS) United States Environmental Protection Agency (USEPA) Management authorities and utilities: New York Power Authority (NYPA) Ontario Power Generation (OPG) Academic and research institutions: University of Michigan Wayne State University Case Western Reserve University Duke University Western Michigan University Other academic institutions Stakeholders and partners

11. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 11 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 11 Objectives 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk

12. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 12 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 12 Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty

13. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 13 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 13 Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty Example “A”: Predicting flows in ungauged basins

14. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 14 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 14 Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty Example “B”: water quality assessments and human health risk

15. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 15 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 15 Objective 3: Quantify uncertainty Example “B”: water quality assessments and human health risk

16. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 16 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 16 Objectives 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk 1.Support Great Lakes water resource management 2.Compile, process, and distribute basin-wide data 3.Develop novel tools for quantifying uncertainty 4.Effectively communicate uncertainty and risk

17. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 17 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 17 Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events

18. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 18 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 18 Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

19. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 19 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 19 Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

20. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 20 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 20 Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

21. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 21 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 21 Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

22. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 22 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 22 Objective 4: Communicate risk Example: probability and impact of extreme events (continued)

23. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 23 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 23 Hydrological Modeling: summary 1.Hydrology program cornerstones solid foundation 2.Applying novel tools and filling gaps in research 3.Exciting transition period

24. Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-19, 2010 24 Click to edit Master text styles –Second level Third level –Fourth level »Fifth level Great Lakes Environmental Research Laboratory Review – Ann Arbor, MI November 15-18, 2010 24 Hydrological Modeling: summary