1. Climate Change Adaptation 101 Dr. Lara Hansen, Chief Scientist and Executive Director, EcoAdapt Approaching Adaptation Jennie Hoffman, EcoAdapt WHMSI III, Asuncion Paraguay July 24, 2008

2. Climate Change Adaptation is: * A set of methodologies to reduce the vulnerability of species, communities, processes, etc. to climate change * A new way of thinking about what we do and how we do it -Consider time as well as space -Change is the only constant

3. 1)Protect Adequate and Appropriate Space as dictated by climate change 2) Limit all Non-climate Stresses that are made worse by or worsen the effects of climate change 3) Use Adaptive Management & start testing strategies now 4) Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions to limit the amount of stress New Conservation Paradigm

4. 1) Protect adequate and appropriate space for a changing world: Representation –Networks of reserves –Gradients (latitude, elevation) –Diversity of habitats Replication Protect resistant and resilient communities Create/protect refugia

5. Adequate/appropriate space, cont’d Protect ecosystem linkages –Protect entire watersheds –Protect coastal buffer to allow inland movement Design reserves based on features less likely to change Protect key ecosystem features –Breeding grounds –Migratory species stopover areas

6. © WWF-Canon / Jürgen FREUND 2) Reduce non-climate stresses likely to negatively interact with effects of climate change Unsustainable Harvest Pollution & Habitat Degradation InvasiveSpecies ©WWF-Canon/ Edward PARKER ©WWF/Kjell-Arne LARSSON Agriculture & Habitat Fragmentation

7. 3) Employ active adaptive management approaches and start testing strategies © WWF/ Eric Mielbrecht “integration of design, management, and monitoring to systematically test assumptions in order to adapt and learn” (Salafsky et al., 2002) **COMBINE RESEARCH AND ACTION: We need to act now, and we need to learn what works

8. Identify threats Describe current status Define goals/targets Develop action/monitoring plan Implement plan, monitor success Adjust management as needed Combine research and action: “Fail early and often”

9. 4) Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions For some systems resilience building options are scarce and mitigation is needed

10. Adaptation: anything that increases a community’s ability to remain intact and functional in the face of climate change Resistance: ability to withstand change Resilience: ability to recover from change

11. How do we do adaptation? 1. How vulnerable are the communities, ecosystems, species, social structures, etc. that we care about to climate change? [vulnerability assessment] 2. What can we do to limit or reduce vulnerability/support resistance or resilience? [adaptation planning] Reducing vulnerability to climate change revolves around two key questions: Two basic approaches: Top Down and Bottom Up

12. 1. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES Changes in: temperature, precipitation amount and timing, currents, sea level, water chemistry, stratification, etc. What might change? How much? How soon? How certain are we? TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

13. 1. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES 2. IDENTIFY IMPACTS What ecological effects are likely to result from these changes (e.g. range changes, timing of seasonal events, species interactions, etc.)? What cultural, economic, and subsistence effects are likely to result from these changes? What might change? How much? How soon? How certain are we? TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

14. 1. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES 2. IDENTIFY IMPACTS 3. PRIORITIZE VULNERABILITIES What critical ecological/social/economic/cultural structures and processes are most resilient? Most at risk? TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

15. 1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES, SPECIES AND PROCESSES What variables (ecological/social/economic/cultural) are critical to ecosystem or community function? What conservation priorities have been identified for the ecoregion? BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

16. 1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES, SPECIES AND PROCESSES 2. IDENTIFY CLIMATIC INFLUENCES How do climatic forces influence these key species, structures, processes, priorities, etc.? BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

17. 1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES, SPECIES AND PROCESSES 2. IDENTIFY CLIMATIC INFLUENCES 3. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES What climatic changes are predicted for the region in question? How will these affect key structures, processes, and priorities? What will my protected area, farm, etc. look like in 50 years? BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS

18. How do you use vulnerability assessments to design adaptation strategies?

19. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES IDENTIFY IMPACTS PRIORITIZE VULNERABILITIES BUILDING ADAPTATION PLANNING INTO YOUR VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ADAPTATION OPTION: Protect/restore forests (forests increase retention of moisture in air & soil, increase rainfall) PHYSICAL CHANGE: Increasing dryness

20. 1. IDENTIFY KEY STRUCTURES, SPECIES AND PROCESSES 2. IDENTIFY CLIMATIC INFLUENCES 3. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES BOTTOM-UP APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS ADAPTATION OPTION: Manage dams to support adequate flow or remove dams altogether; minimize warming of water by protecting/restoring riverside vegetation KEY SPECIES: Salmon CLIMATIC INFLUENCES: River temperature and flow

21. Climatic ChangeLikely effects Possible adaptation options

22. Climatic ChangeLikely effects Possible adaptation options Increasing sea level Decreased sea turtle nesting beach habitat Protect areas inland of beaches to allow natural shift in location Altered wind patterns Possible effect on bird migration paths and energetics Protect good stopover habitat along migratory routes that may become more heavily used

23. Adding in a few complicating factors: Climate change is not happening in a vacuum

24. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES IDENTIFY IMPACTS IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING INTERACTIVE EFFECTS IDENTIFY KEY NON- CLIMATE STRESSORS What non-climate stressors (e.g. unsustainable land use, conflict over water, wars, etc.) threaten ecosystem or community function in the area of concern?

25. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES IDENTIFY IMPACTS IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING INTERACTIVE EFFECTS IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND NON- CLIMATE STRESSORS How will predicted climate changes influence non-climate stressors and vice versa (e.g. increase in drought and demand for fresh water, increase in heavy rainfall and deforestation, coastal development and sea level rise)? IDENTIFY KEY NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS

26. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES IDENTIFY IMPACTS IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES How do interactions between climate and non-climate stressors affect vulnerability assessment and adaptation planning? TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING INTERACTIVE EFFECTS IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS IDENTIFY KEY NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS

27. IDENTIFY PHYSICAL CHANGES IDENTIFY IMPACTS IDENTIFY KEY VULNERABILITIES TOP-DOWN APPROACH TO VULNERABILITY ANALYSIS, INCLUDING INTERACTIVE EFFECTS IDENTIFY INTERACTIONS BETWEEN CLIMATE AND NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS IDENTIFY KEY NON-CLIMATE STRESSORS ADAPTATION OPTION: Focus clean-up efforts on target pollutants; change laws to reduce maximum allowable levels of target pollutants NON-CLIMATE STRESSOR: Pollution INTERACTION: Some pollutants are more toxic in warmer conditions; others increase heat sensitivity of animals

28. Broaden your thinking Human communities will change their behavior in response to climate change; what does this mean for conservation of migratory species? Changes in one biome can affect another drought flood food migration

29. Warm-phase ENSO (El Niño conditions) More insect and plant food resources for pre-migration conditioning (presumably) Higher late winter rainfall on wintering ranges in west Mexico More fledglings in Pacific Northwest Birds migrate earlier, arrive in better condition Effects of ENSO on neotropical- wintering species Courtesy of Institute for Bird Populations

30. **The relationships between El Nino and rainfall in Central America vary spatially; where birds overwinter influences the effect of El Nino on their population **The effect of the North Atlantic Oscillation on seabirds and hole-nesting birds is reversed at higher and lower latitudes **Climate change and its effects are also likely to vary spatially.

31. A few examples of adaptation options

32. Multiple benefits: hurricane- resistance, sustainable agriculture, better habitat Cover-crops Terraces Interplanting

33. Breeding salt- tolerant bald- cypress trees in south-eastern US

34. Water quality and bleaching on the Great Barrier Reef Bleaching correlates with water quality as well as temperature GBRMPA working with national, regional, local governments as well as watershed landowners/land users to improve water quality

35. Three things to remember about why to do adaptation: Climate change is happening right now Climate change is an opportunity for creative new thinking Failing to include climate change in your work means your work is vulnerable

36. Three things to remember about how to do adaptation: Adaptation is not rocket science (but it does require a thoughtful approach) Context matters –Ecological, Political, Sociocultural, Organizational YOU are an expert on your region/species –Combine available data and models with your understanding of how things work where you are

37. It’s BREAKOUT TIME! WE provide information, suggestions, feedback YOU take the lead: it’s YOUR day it’s your time for strategic DOING Go home with something useful!

38. No one can tell you the best solution for your organization, region, sector, or biome. YOU create the solution!

39. Extreme rainfall events become more common Increased sedimentation of reefs, mangroves, sea turtle nests Increased soil erosion River organisms stressed by extreme currents, turbidity Sample top-down approach Predicted Physical Changes: Ecological Effects: Human Community Effects: Loss of crops Loss of coastal protection Loss of habitat for commercially or culturally important species (e.g. crabs, fish, shrimp, turtles, manatees) Loss of coral reef tourism

40. Mangrove forests Sample bottom-up approach Predicted Change: Climatic influences: Key structures, processes, etc: Sediment input: too much can smother trees, too little reduces accretion rate Submergence time: determines location of trees Temperature: Min/max temp tolerance Increasing temp increases evaporation, can increase salinity, stressing trees For intermediate rates of sea level rise, mangroves shift inland If sea level rise is slow, soil accretion keeps pace and mangroves stay put For rapid sea level rise, mangroves drown