1. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Autonomous Air Traffic Management System (AATMS): The Management and Design of an Affordable Ground-Based Air Traffic Management System Student Team Members Kenneth H. McKneely Jr. Abdulaziz Faghi Pirooz Javan Keegan E. Johnson Khang L. Nguyen April 26, 2002 Corporate Sponsor Ms. Lori Delorenzo CACI Technologies, Inc. Faculty Advisor George L. Donohue, PhD.

2. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Briefing Outline Problem Statement Operational Concept Design Approach Decision and Cost Analysis Physical Architecture Simulations Conclusion

3. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Problem Statement

4. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team

5. Motivation Key Design Question: Can we provide equivalent Tower Safety at a lower cost? Performance Objective – Increase Aircraft Arrivals per hour from 3 to a maximum of 15 per hour in Lower Landing Minimum

6. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Operational Concept AATMS Services – Provide same capabilities as Low Density FAA Manned Tower Surveillance Separation Communications Flight Planning and Weather Information – Remote Maintenance Monitoring Worst Case Weather Conditions – Cloud Ceiling: 450 feet – Horizontal Visibility: 1 statute mile

7. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Initial Observations and Constraints Target Market approximately 750 airports – Small airports do not have large budgets Technology exists, but no real integration of this type of system Meet a High Operational Availability Provide services for minimally equipped aircraft – Air Traffic Control Radar Beacon System (ATCRBS) transponder with encoding altimeter – Two independent radio navigation systems – Global Positioning System/Wide Area Augmentation System (GPS/WAAS)

8. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Design Approach Two Basic Design Alternatives: – Decisions made by Pilot/Avionics: Responsibility for execution of maneuvers is left to the pilot (e.g., missed approach). – Decisions made by AATMS : AATMS monitors airspace and provides instructions to pilots. Provide two hardware configurations – Minimum Availability (Min A O ): Meets minimum availability requirements for FAA certification – Maximum Availability (Max A O ): Provide component redundancy and diversity

9. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Design Approach Architecture/ Design Pilot Decision Making AATMS Decision Making Min A O Reject DesignAccept Design Max A O Reject DesignAccept Design

10. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Max A O Physical Architecture 100 Base-T Router/LAN MultilaterationADS-B VDL-4VHF Voice Focal Plane (IR) Array AWOS/ DUATS Remote Maintenance Monitoring Weather/ Runway Weather/ Runway Planning UPS Voice Synthesizer Primary Radar (Network Servers)

11. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Decision and Cost Analysis

12. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Cost Approach Cost Approach Used Multi-Attribute Decision Analysis Techniques for component selection decisions Cost Breakdown Structure (CBS) – Means to Collect/Track Cost Data Assumptions for Operations Costs – Computed for 7 years (Time between Technology Refresh) – Operations Costs Tower: Staffed by 15 people @ $120,000/yr each AATMS: Utilities ~ $24000/yr

13. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Decision Sensitivity Analysis Weight of Purchase Price (PP) Decision Value Primary Radar Decision Sensitivity to Weight of Purchase Price (PP) Actual Weight of Purchase Price (PP)

14. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Cost Comparison

15. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Simulations

16. Approach Developed Two Simulations to evaluate AATMS performance – Overall System Reliability – System Operational Performance Reliability Simulation based on data obtained from Aviation Standards Body for FAA (Radio Technical Commission for Aeronautics, Inc.) Operational Simulation used to compute data on number of aircraft events

17. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Reliability Results Reliability: – All reliability data is end-to-end – Predicted for 0.99798 – Monte Carlo Simulation resulted in 0.99945 over 20 years Power Group (0.99999) Surveillance Group (0.999) Comms Group (0.99999) Network Group (0.999)

18. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Airport Geometry 4500 ft. 8 mi (42240 ft.) Meter Point A 10.26 mi (54180 ft.) 6 mi (31680 ft.) 8 mi (42240 ft.) Meter Point B 10.26 mi (54180 ft.) r Meter Point A Meter Point B

19. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Operational Simulation Parameters Arriving Aircraft Speeds: 90 and 120 knots Gaussian Distribution for Aircraft Interarrival Times – Mean (  ): 4, 5, and 6 minutes – Standard Deviation (  ) : 20 seconds Repositioning event = aircraft Standard Rate Turn – 360 o turn = 2 minutes

20. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Operational Results Separation Distance Intervals (nm) Instances (x1000) over 30 days

21. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Total Reposition Events Number of Occurrences over 30 days Arrivals Per Hour

22. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team Conclusion The AATMS Max A O architecture can safely and reliably handle 12 aircraft arrivals per hour The investment to provide this capability is 62% less than the cost to construct/operate/maintain a Low Density FAA Manned Control Tower. YES! We can provide equivalent Tower Safety at a lower cost. “Luck is the residue of good design.” – Bobby Jones

23. © 2002 GMU SYST 495 AATMS Team