1. THE GEOGRAPHY OF AGEING IN VICTORIA by Graeme Hugo Federation Fellow Professor of Geography and Director of the National Centre for Social Applications of GIS, The University of Adelaide Presentation to the Office of Senior Victorians, Melbourne 27 October 2004

2. Outline of Presentation Introduction How do populations age? Key aspects of demographic ageing in Australia Why does ageing vary in local areas? Patterns of ageing in metropolitan areas Patterns of ageing in non metropolitan areas The future of ageing in Victoria Some implications Conclusion

3. What is Ageing The individual level The population level - numerical growth of the 65+ - growth as a proportion of the population

4. Why is Australia’s Population Ageing? Fertility is low (TFR = 1.78) Mortality of the older population is decreasing -added more than 10 years since 1947 -added more than 5 years to 50+ since 1971 Immigration

5. Key Aspects of Ageing in Australia Doubling of numbers 65+ in next 25 years Doubling of proportion aged 65+ Changes in characteristics Changes in spatial distribution

6. Projections of Australia’s Aged and Working Age Population Number by Age Year15-6465+ 65+ as % 15-64 200313,344,6852,546,42319.1 201114,532,9003,155,60021.7 202115,172,3004,443,40029.3 203115,348,1005,741,00037.4 Annual Growth Rate (%) 2003-111.072.72 2011-210.433.48 2021-310.122.60

7. Annual Additions to Workforce (Access Economics) Now:170,900 in single year 2020-2030:125,000 in entire decade

8. Influence of the Baby Boom Generation Age Distribution of the Population Source: ABS, 1999, 7

9. Qualitative Differences of Cohorts Older Baby Boomers Different attitudes to working at older ages More healthy More living by themselves Different housing aspirations More ethnically heterogeneous Different health problems Different living areas Fewer children Higher education More mobile Better off economically but more unequal Higher expectations

10. Structural Ageing: Australia: Change by Age (5): 2004 – 2010; 2020 (Series B) Source: Jackson 2004

11. Positive Economic Impacts Create demand for locally delivered and labour intensive care and services Local spending of transfers 55+ - 21% of population, 39% of wealth

12. Projected Population Size for Selected Age Ranges Source: Costello, 2002, 5 Intergenerational Report

13. Projections of Commonwealth Demographic Spending (Percent of GDP) Source: Costello, 2002, 59

14. Projection of Fiscal Pressure Source: Costello, 2002

15. Australia: Age and Sex Structure of the Population, 1901-2001 Source: Australian Censuses 1901-2001 and ABS 2000a

16. Victoria: Trends in the Growth of the Aged and Total Populations, 1947-2001 Source: ABS Censuses

17. Victoria: Dependency Ratios, 1947 to 2001 Source: ABS Censuses

18. Victoria: Age Sex Structure of Melton - East, SLA with lowest per cent aged 65+ Victoria: Age Sex Structure of Queenscliffe, SLA with greatest per cent aged 65+

19. Two Processes by which Communities’ Older Population Grows or Declines Migration in or out Ageing in Place

20. Victoria: Population Aged 65+ by Section of State, 1991 and 2001 Source: ABS 1991 and 2001 Censuses

21. Victoria: Age-Sex Distribution of Population, 1996 and 2001 Source: Australian Censuses 1996 and 2001

22. Victoria: Growth in the Population in the Dependent Age Groups, Actual 1947 to 2001 and Projected 2006 to 2051 Source: ABS Censuses 1946 to 2001 and ABS Projections Series B

23. Victorian Statistical Divisions: Percent Share of Total and Aged Population, 2001 Source: ABS Census, 2001

24. Victorian Statistical Divisions: Comparison of Average Annual Growth Rates in Total and Aged Populations, 1991-96, 1996-2001 Source: ABS Censuses, 1991-2001

25. Victoria: Population Aged 65+ by Statistical Division, Number and Percent 2001 and Growth 1996-2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Censuses

26. Victorian Statistical Divisions: Age Sex Pyramids, 1996 and 2001 Melbourne Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

27. Melbourne Statistical Division: Percent of Population Aged 65+ Source: ABS 2001 Census

28. Melbourne Statistical Division: Total Population Aged 65+ Source: ABS 2001 Census

29. Melbourne Statistical Division: Percent Growth Rate of Total Population Aged 65+, 1996-2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

30. Melbourne Statistical Division 2001 and 2011 Source: ABS 2001 Census and DSE 2004 Projections

31. Victoria: Metropolitan Area, Percent Aged 75+, 1996-2001 Source: ABS 2001 Census

32. Victorian Metropolitan SLAs: Summary of Trends in the SLA Growth in Aged 65+ and Total Population, 1996-2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

33. Melbourne Statistical Division: Age Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996-2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

34. Victoria Metropolitan and Non Metropolitan Age Sex Structure, 2001 Source: ABS 2001 Census

35. Victoria: Non Metropolitan Area Percent of Population Aged 65+, 2001 Source: ABS 2001 Census

36. Victoria: Non Metropolitan Area Percent of Population Aged 75+, 2001 Source: ABS 2001 Census

37. Victorian Non Metropolitan SLAs: Summary of Patterns of Distribution and Growth Aged and Total Population by SLA, 1996-2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

38. Barwon SD: Age Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996-2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

39. Western District SD: Age Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996-2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

40. Central Highlands SD: Age Sex Specific Net Migration Estimates, 1996-2001 Source: ABS 1996 and 2001 Census

41. The Future Projections are quite accurate Older people are the least mobile Good basis for Planning

42. Projections of Victorian Population Source: ABS 2001 Census and ABS Projections, Series B

43. Victoria Metropolitan Area: Average Annual Growth Rate, Population Aged 65+, 2001-2011 Source: ABS 2001 Census and DSE 2004 Projections

44. Victoria Non Metropolitan Area: Average Annual Growth Rate, Population Aged 65+, 2001-2011 Source: ABS 2001 Census and DSE 2004 Projections

45. Victoria Metropolitan Area: Average Annual Growth Rate, Population Aged 65+, 2011-2021 Source: DSE 2004 Projections

46. Victoria Non Metropolitan Area: Average Annual Growth Rate, Population Aged 65+, 2011-2021 Source: DSE 2004 Projections

47. Local Implications Challenges Opportunities

48. Ageing at the Community Level Changes quite predictable Change can be different to the State as a whole Change can be very rapid Older people relate more to local area than other groups Many of needs are met at the community level

49. Issues Mismatch of location of services and location of next generation of aged people. Mismatches in types of services and perceptions of future generations. Increased levels of inequality in next generation of older people Increased loneliness in next generation Inappropriateness of living contexts

50. Conclusion Ageing in Australia is manageable There is a period of slow growth in demand Need to plan interventions now This needs to be at the community level as well as state and national levels.