1. KERN REGIONAL GROWTH FORECAST Revision 2002 KERN COUNCIL OF GOVERNMENTS 4/02

2. THE FORECAST REVISION  Process Oversight  The Procedure/Assumptions  Distribution of County-wide Forecasts  County-wide Forecast Targets  Scheduled Updates  Conclusions/Questions

3. Kern COG’s Role

4. Reasons for Update to the October 1998 Forecast  Metro Bakersfield System Study  Input from the Development Community  Metro Bakersfield General Plan Update  Release of 2000 Census Data  Air Quality Conformity Modeling Policy Note: Forecasts are maintained for 3-5 years to allow time for completion of EIRs & Project Studies

5. Procedure/Assumptions  Distribution of County-wide Forecasts  County-wide Forecast Targets

6. Distribution of the County-wide Forecast Totals  Based on distribution adopted by Kern COG in 1996 using the 1993 DOF forecast series.  Share Allocation Method  Households/Employment Distributions

7. S.W. Metro Bakersfield General Plan Capacity

8. DISTRIBUTION OF FORECAST FOR HOUSEHOLDS: S.W. Metro Bakersfield 2000, 2010, 2020 & 2030

9. Forecast Distribution Assumptions  Growth will continue to occur in rapidly growing areas with remaining General Plan Capacity  Areas that reach capacity in future years will spill over into neighboring areas with latent capacity proportional to their historic growth  Growth concentrates around existing activity centers and grows outwardly from these centers.

10. Chart A – DOF Predicting 2000 in 1991 - Basis for the Metro Bakersfield Impact Fee Program

11. Chart A – DOF Predicting 2000 in 1993 - Basis for the Bakersfield MTIS Light Rail Study

12. Chart A – DOF Predicting 2000 in 1996-7 - Basis for the Bakersfield System Study

13. Chart A – DOF Predicting 2000 in 1998 - Never adopted by Kern COG

14. Chart A – DOF Predicting 2000 in 2000 - DOF yearly estimates revised up

15. Chart A – DOF Predicting 2000 in 2001 - Latest 2001 DOF estimate lower than latest Forecast

16. Chart B – Historic Vs. Future – 1930-2040

17. Chart C – Future Comparisons – 2000 - 2040

18. County-wide Summary Forecast Conclusions  DOF forecasts are high and under estimate out-migration  Adopted DOF Forecast is 7% high in 2000 and 12% high in 2020  The July 2001 DOF Forecast is high when compared to historical trends  1.8% growth rate (2% metro and 1.5% non-metro) is more realistic  1.8% is a mid growth scenario approximately half way between the July 2001 DOF Forecast and the historic linear growth.

19. 2020 Level of Service (Current forecast)

20. 2020 Level of Service (Latest DOF forecast)

21. 2020 Level of Service (Recommended forecast)

22. 1998 Level of Service

23. Time Line For Forecast Adoption/Use  2/27/2002 – Metro Bakersfield Modeling Sub- Committee meeting  3/6/2002 –Transportation Technical Advisory (TTAC) approves forecast update  4/25/2002 – Kern COG Board Hearing on Forecast  10/2002 – Begin Integrating 2000 Census block level Housing data, income, and other data.  2003 – Revised DOF forecast due