1. Trends in Regional Traffic Volumes: Signs of Change? East-West Gateway Council of Governments March 20, 2008

2. Vehicle Miles Traveled (VMT) is an indicator of regional mobility. It’s a measure of the total number of miles driven by all vehicles in the region. VMT is often an indicator of congestion. VMT is useful in deciding when, where and whether new roads, or additional lanes on existing roads, need to be built. To the extent that gasoline taxes constitute the principal source of funding for transportation projects, changes in VMT can significantly affect transportation financing. What is VMT and Why Should We Care?

3. The long term trend for VMT has generally been characterized by rapid growth. Beginning early in this decade VMT growth started to slow in the region. At the national level the trend appears to have begun mid-decade. There do remain local "hot spots" where traffic volume does continue to increase. However, these high volume areas may not represent the entire region. VMT Trends

4. YearAADVMT Annual Percent Growth Rate YearAADVMT Annual Percent Growth Rate 198035,907,078---199359,271,1853.5% 198136,388,8301.3%199461,934,9784.5% 198237,211,7062.3%199563,759,7192.9% 198340,269,2248.2%199664,959,5351.9% 198442,693,8216.0%199766,447,1972.3% 198543,491,7331.9%199867,288,5921.3% 198646,263,5006.4%199967,335,9050.1% 198747,860,2883.5%200067,501,1820.2% 198850,425,5905.4%200168,084,4560.9% 198953,014,6085.1%200269,318,6531.8% 199054,751,0263.3%200370,072,5891.1% 199155,411,3451.2%200470,726,9270.9% 199257,281,6063.4%200569,983,917-1.1% Annual Average Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled EWG Region Source: MODOT, IDOT

5. Annual Average Daily Vehicle Miles Traveled EWG Region Source: MODOT, IDOT 30,000,000 40,000,000 50,000,000 60,000,000 70,000,000 80,000,000 19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005 Year Vehicle Miles Traveled 4.3% Average Annual Growth 2.3% Average Annual Growth.7% Average Annual Growth.3% Average Annual Growth

6. Local Hot Spots

7. YearVMT Annual Percent Growth Rate YearVMT 19821,549,466 ---- 19831,617,3404.419952,400,555 19841,678,3633.819962,433,987 19851,739,3503.619972,517,474 19861,800,9333.519982,581,051 19871,880,8624.419992,638,895 19881,966,5724.620002,727,792 19892,062,8934.920012,762,770 19902,130,6343.320022,823,292 19912,145,0740.720032,858,883 19922,204,8582.820042,933,243 19932,269,8352.920052,979,121 19942,313,5431.920062,997,685 SOURCE: FHWA, TRAFFIC VOLUME TRENDS, MAY 2007 1.3 2.6 1.6 0.6 2.2 3.4 1.3 2.2 3.8 1.4 3.4 2.5 Annual Percent Growth Rate Annual Vehicle Miles Traveled (Millions), US

8. Urban Vehicle Miles Traveled, US SOURCE: US Department of Transportation, Federal Highway Administration 0 500,000 1,000,000 1,500,000 2,000,000 2,500,000 198019811982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 Years VMT (millions) 4.0% Average Annual Growth 2.7% Average Annual Growth.1% Annual Growth

9. Vehicle Miles Traveled, US SOURCE: FHWA, TRAFFIC VOLUME TRENDS, MAY 2007 1,500,000 1,700,000 1,900,000 2,100,000 2,300,000 2,500,000 2,700,000 2,900,000 3,100,000 1982198319841985198619871988198919901991199219931994199519961997199819992000200120022003200420052006 Year VMT (millions) 4.1% Average Annual Growth 2.4% Average Annual Growth 1.6% Average Annual Growth.6% Annual Growth

10. Tractor Trailer Vehicle Miles Traveled, US 0 20,000 40,000 60,000 80,000 100,000 120,000 140,000 160,000 19801981198219831984198519861987198819891990199119921993199419951996199719981999200020012002200320042005 Year VMT (millions) 3.2% Average Annual Growth 3.7% Average Annual Growth 1.2% Average Annual Growth.9% Annual Growth

11. Demographic Factors Affecting VMT Growth  Population Growth  Age of the Population  Household Composition  Labor Force Participation  Vehicle Availability

12. Population Growth EWG RegionUS 1970-1980-2.511.4 1980-19902.89.8 1990-20003.913.2 1970-20004.238.4 Annual Percent Growth Rate, 1970- 2000 0.10.82 Source: US Census Population Growth Rates (Percent)

13. Age of the Population Age of DriverAnnual Miles 0-15353 16-196,638 20-2413,982 25-2915,902 30-3416,265 35-3916,309 40-4415,817 45-4915,674 50-5414,733 55-5913,753 60-6412,124 65+8,223 Source: National Household Travel Survey, 2001 Annual Miles Driven, US

14. Household Composition Number of AdultsChild PresentMiles per Driver 1No11,687 1Yes13,848 2No12,775 2Yes15,339 Annual Miles per Driver by Household Type Source: National Household Travel Survey, 2001

15. Labor Force Participation YearParticipation RateYearParticipation Rate 196037.7198554.5 196138.1198655.3 196237.9198756 196338.3198856.6 196438.7198957.4 196539.3199057.5 196640.3199157.3 196741.1199257.8 196841.6199357.9 196942.7199458.8 197043.3199558.9 197143.4199659.3 197243.9199759.8 197344.7199859.8 197445.6199960 197546.3200060.2 197647.3200560 197748.4201059.2 197850201557.9 197951202056.3 198051.6202554.9 198152.2203054 198252.6203553.7 198352.9204053.7 198453.6204553.7 Source: BLS 2002 Age Adjusted Labor Force Participation Rates, 1960-2045 Female Labor Force Participation, US, 1960-2045

16. Labor Force Participation Source: BLS 2002 Age Adjusted Labor Force Participation Rates, 1960-2045 Female Labor Force Participation Rates – 1960 thru 2045 0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 1960196419681972197619801984198819921996200020042008201220162020202420282032203620402044 Years Percent

17. Vehicle Availability 1980199020002006 Madison9.18.77.05.2 Monroe7.15.03.3--- St. Clair14.913.210.48.2 Franklin7.56.85.94.1 Jefferson4.54.3 4.2 St. Charles3.76.03.63.5 St. Louis County5.76.06.46.0 St. Louis City31.229.125.221.6 Region12.411.09.2--- Source: US Census Percentage of Occupied Housing Units With No Available Vehicle

18. Gas Prices Monthly Gas Prices and VMT - 1992 thru 2006 0 50 100 150 200 250 300 350 JAN92JAN93JAN94JAN95 JAN96JAN97JAN98JAN99JAN00JAN01JAN02 JAN03JAN04 JAN05JAN06 Year Gas Prices Measured in Pennies and VMT Measured in Billions Gas Price, 2007 dollars VMT*1 Billion

19. Conclusions Several demographic trends suggest that VMT growth will be moderate, and we are not likely to ever see a return to the growth rates of past decades: Female labor force participation rates have stabilized. The working-age population is likely to decline in absolute terms over the next decade. The number of two-parent households with children is declining. Auto ownership rates are not likely to rise dramatically in the future. Gasoline prices may add a further incentive to reduce driving.

20. Trends in Regional Traffic Volumes: Signs of Change? East-West Gateway Council of Governments March 20, 2008