1. EAALCE 2015 3 Scenarios (well, 2 and a bit…)

2. Scenarios ask: WHAT IF ….?

3. Scenarios - basic principles: re-perception the status quo is not an option understand and manage uncertainty the long view outside-in thinking multiple perspectives

4. Scenario thinking – why & when? setting strategic direction catalyze bold action accelerate collaborative learning alignment & visioning

5. Conditions for success: Openness for multiple perspectives & for challenging common assumptions Positioned to change in a meaningful way Have a well-positioned leader for the process Willingness to commit the necessary resources

6. … here we go!

8. Purity & Poverty

9. Churches Contract Focus on core congregation Managing scarcity "Declinist mood" Minoritiy church in a secular society Claiming a role in society, but nobody asks for it "Tunnel vision" of the future

10. Spirituality Goes Astray People look for spiritual fulfilment in many places –Wild market for spirituality –New churches "Mega churches" –Commodification of spirituality –New religions

11. Ecumenism Becomes Formal Confessionalism grows

12. Society Grows Indifferent Some few "spiritual light houses" become very prominent (and “chic”) –Religious communities Formal contacts with churches, less influence

13. Centres Go Different Ways

14. Drifting away from the churches, professionalising in various ways "Christian" hotels Think tanks for society Responding to the learning needs of of a rapidly changing society –Further education –Vocational training –Higher education

15. More direct services for the churches Christian alphabetisation Training for for church workers Background work for church leadership

16. Drive The Future

17. Churches Reach Out Know about and are proud of their contribution to the life of communities Re-discover the potential of their centres/academies Offer a home for different forms of spirituality/religiosity Realize the relevance of art/culture/media Adopt a role as "general agent for religious affairs“ (“Generalunternehmerin für religiöse Angelegenheiten” Thomas Bornhauser) Broad and informed vision of the future Relate to society in a conscious and informed way

18. Spirituality, Reconnected Churches accept their responsibility as "containers" for/of the spiritual in society Churches see different forms of spirituality/religiosity as complementary Tensions/conflicts between different orientations require constant attention

19. Ecumenism, Rich And Tough Flourishes but always at risk to become blurred Need for continuous dialogue Confessions remain but divisions fade

20. Society: Respect & Appreciation Sees the religious as an enriching element of democratic culture Seeks the advice of religious organisations

21. Centres United For Common Purpose Develop a "corporate" sense of common responsibility, vision & pride –Develop a distinctive and rich spirituality –"distributed" think tank capacity –Pro-actively seek national & international collaboration –Find a "new blend" of professionalization, volunteerism and community Serve the "new laity" - Have close links with relevant spheres of society »Culture, art & media »Professions »Politics »Academe, research

22. Centres United For Common Purpose (2) Encourage churches & help them to cope –See one role as being "future agencies" of the churches –Be an "interface" with groups & spheres in society

23. The worst of all options …. SCENARIO 3: No decision, no bold action, no new vision, no… Let‘s call this scenario:

24. Scenario 3

25. … this is not really an option …

26. OPEN SPACE let‘s develop our own SCENARIO 3 for „EAALCE 2015“ our visions, projects, ideas, dreams …