1. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System) AIRES from occitan language « Aire » [ajré] n.m. : air Air Quality Forecasts and Simulations in PACA region I. Historical background II. Objectives III. AIRES in few words IV. Assessment : 2001 ESCOMPTE, 2003, 2004 V. Conclusion and questions A. Armengaud 4, S. Fayet 4, D. Robin 4, G. Causera 4, O. Sanchez 3,A. Mangin 3, F. Rouffi 3, B. Théodore 3, O. Hembise 3, R. Vautard 1, F. Lasry 2, I. Coll 2 1 – LMD : Laboratoire de Météorologie Dynamique, Palaiseau 2 – LISA, Creteil 3 – ACRI-ST, Sophia-Antipolis 4 – AIRMARAIX, Marseille

2. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France HISTORICAL background 2001 : SCIENTIFIC PROGRAM ESCOMPTE EMISSIONS INVENTORY CADASTRE MODELLING EXERCICE ESCOMPTE ESCOMPTE 2005 : OPERATIONAL REGIONAL SYSTEM DAILY FORECAST AND SIMULATION OF AIR QUALITY IN PACA REGION ESCOMPTE Spin-off

3. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France Yesterday OBJECTIVES Observations Network PACA Daily Monitoring survey Analyse and valuation Air Quality Today Tomorrow Tendancy Forecasts 24h, 48h Improvement of monitoring survey Improvement of monitoring survey Improvement of understanding Improvement of understanding Maps Maps

4. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France AIRES (Atmospheric Integrated REgional System) : Air quality forecast and simulation system in PACA region (Provence Alpes Côte d’Azur). Daily 3D forecasts of ozone, nitrogen oxides, aerosols and others pollutants. based on CHIMERE and MM5 models (www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/). based on CHIMERE and MM5 models (www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/).www.mmm.ucar.edu/mm5/ Chemical boundary conditions : from PREV’AIR (www.prevair.org). Chemical boundary conditions : from PREV’AIR (www.prevair.org).www.prevair.org AIRES provides fine resolution forecasts at 12h, 24h and 48h over 3 different areas (ESCOMPTE, NICE and whole PACA). Partners : ACRI-ST (www.acri-st.fr), IPSL and LISA, CHIMERE research team (http://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere/index.html). www.acri-st.frhttp://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere/index.htmlwww.acri-st.frhttp://euler.lmd.polytechnique.fr/chimere/index.html AIRES in few words

5. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France Emissions Inventory NO X : 91 000 000 Tons/year SO 2 : 127 000 000 Tons/yr Ref :1999

6. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France AIRES in few words MM5 CHIMERE www.prevair.org Outside of PACA 3 modes : Monitoring Survey Model + obs. Geostatistical process (from INERIS) ScenarioForecast 1km-3km

7. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France www.enviport.org/AAM

8. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France AIRES is taking part in the ESCOMPTE modelling exercise with ACRI-ST participation. Observations CHIMERE-ACRI MESO-NHC 12h T.U. 21st of June 2001, IOP2a. Example of comparison between MESO-NHC, CHIMERE-ACRI and observations Assessment

9. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France Comparison between ozone temporal profile from AIX PLATANES ground station (black dots) and CHIMERE-ACRI (model, bold violet line). Others color lines represent all models involved in the ESCOMPTE modelling exercise. Assessment

10. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France Comparison between ozone vertical profile from ALTO LIDAR (observations, left) and CHIMERE-ACRI (model, right) during IOP2b. Assessment

11. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France SUMMER 2003 : first try by Dr. Robert Vautard MM5+CHIMERE over ESCOMPTE From 1/08/2003 to 16/08/2003 16 consecutives days Begining of the episode 30 th of July for 1 st of August 180 µg/m 3 240 µg/m 3 Assessment

12. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France Still no O 3 31 st of july D+1 OBS D+2

13. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France D+1 OBS D+2 Begining of the episode 1 st of August

14. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France SUMMER 2003 From 1/08/2003 to 16/08/2003 17 consecutives days 03 peak During the episode 180 µg/m 3 240 µg/m 3

15. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France D+1 OBS D+2

16. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France Etc … D+1 OBS D+2

17. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France SUMMER 2003 From 1/08/2003 to 16/08/2003 16 consecutives days 03 peak Finally : 15 th for 17 th 180 µg/m 3 240 µg/m 3

18. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France D+1 OBS D+2

19. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France SUMMER 2003 From 1/08/2003 to 16/08/2003 16 consecutives days 03 peak 180 µg/m 3 240 µg/m 3 START PERSISTENCE END

20. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France SUMMER 2004 Example : 23 rd of July 180 µg/m 3 240 µg/m 3

21. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France 23 July 2004 D-1 OBS This system was operational in summer 2004 South West Breaze

22. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France 23 July 2004 D+0 D+1 OBS D+2

23. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France 06 J : 100 % J+1 : 50 % STATISTICS SUMMER 2004 Forecasted / Observed % validated by a expert 83 J : 60 % J+1 : 50 % 40 days [O3] > 180 µg/m3 DEP.Nb. days > 180 µg/m 3 1334 835 847 0410 066 13 J : 78 % J+1 : 68 % 84 J : 100 % J+1 : 85 % 04 J : 90 % J+1 : 80 % 28 dys : 2000 66 dys : 2003 Composed Breaze : Weak Mistral + South Breaze OVER-ESTIMATION In VAR Link with Boundary Conditions. NCEP download. Met files are not always available at the right moment.

24. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France AIRES is Operationnal : Forecast, survey, scenario Operationnal : Forecast, survey, scenario Validated : (still in progress) Validated : (still in progress) summers 2001 (ESCOMPTE), 2003 and 2004 Provide daily datasets to experts who analyze air quality over the PACA region.Provide daily datasets to experts who analyze air quality over the PACA region. This information is taken into account for regional regulation information. Upgreadeable et modular (links with IPSL, LISA, ACRI-ST) Upgreadeable et modular (links with IPSL, LISA, ACRI-ST) In the near future: AIRES will be involved in the PRIMEQUAL SCENARIOS PROGRAM. It will be able to evaluate the different impacts of reductions emissions scenarios. (I. COLL and F. LASRY – LISA) 16h20 today ! CONCLUSION

25. AIRES : a regional operational air quality system from ESCOMPTE Workshop - 21,22 March 2005 Ecole Polytechnique, Palaiseau France We are looking for tracks : forecast improvements in PACA region Does-it possible to start earlier D-1 computation ? Spin-up pb. For the first hours ? Does-it possible to start earlier D-1 computation ? Spin-up pb. For the first hours ? CHIMERE DUST version ?CHIMERE DUST version ? - Users returns ? - specials needs (inventory) ? - specials needs (inventory) ? - computer time versus « CHIMERE GAS version » - parallel version ? Exchange with others CHIMERE’s users Exchange with others CHIMERE’s users Specially with people who are faced with Breazes Phenomena - Pond Breaze - Sea Breaze - Valley Breaze QUESTIONS