Download presentation
Presentation is loading. Please wait.
Published byAnnabel Watkins Modified over 9 years ago
1
Economic developments in Ukraine in 2006 D. Shemetilo, West LB
2
Major risks for economy Political Legislative Demographic Economic
3
PR-OU coalition (50% prob) Building a state not a nation Targeting EU Consolidation of country by resolving the problem of Russian language and NATO Normalisation of relations with Russia Fiscal discipline Recovery of growth (5-6%) and lower inflation (7-8%)
4
“ORANGE” coalition (20% prob) Building a nation not a state Targeting NATO Growing tension in society Deterioration of relations with Russia Compensation of slow economic growth through social benefits High low growth (1-2%) and high inflation (12-13%)
5
Legal environment Development and harmonisation of the legislation using the EU as a nominal anchor Corporate legislation Legal enforcement Corruption
6
Economic Outlook Growth in services and domestic consumption Lower export growth Increase in FDI Three years for structural reforms
7
Economic Outlook 2006 GDP growth 2-3% 2006 CPI 10% Average UAH/USD5.05-5.09 2006 FDIUSD4-5bn
8
Impact of the gas agreement Positive for Ukraine Long term positive for industries Ukraine receives gas at USD95/thm3 Russia gains control over Ukrainian gas re-export and domestic gas distribution
9
Structure of Ukraine’s Industry Source: Ukraine’s MoE 2004
10
Ukraine’s gas balance Source: WestLB
Similar presentations
© 2025 SlidePlayer.com. Inc.
All rights reserved.