1. Using Borehole Temperature Profiles to Reconstruct and Test Surface Temperature Scenarios Over the Last Millennium David S. Chapman 1, Michael G. Davis 1, and Robert N. Harris 2 1 Department of Geology and Geophysics, University of Utah 2 College of Ocean and Atmospheric Sciences, Oregon State University Reconstructing surface temperature histories Borehole temperatures A hybrid (SAT, borehole temperature) method Proxies and pre-proxy mean temperature (PPM)

2. Disadvantages Short records (post 1860) Non climatic biases Station moves Instrument changes Air - Ground Tracking Advantages Direct measure of temperature Good fidelity Good spatial coverage Instrumental Record

3. Advantages Long records (millennia) Annual resolution Disadvantages Temperature calibration issues Seasonal sensitivity Poor low frequency resolution + Multiproxy Reconstructions

4. Measuring Temperature in the Earth

5. The Geothermal Method

6. Evidence From Alaska

7. Northern Hemisphere

8. Advantages Long records (centuries) Annual sensitivity Direct measure of temperature Disadvantages Loss of temporal resolution with time Arbitrary offset with SAT + Borehole Temp. Reconstruction

9. Borehole-SAT Hybrid Method

10. Advantages Long records (centuries) Direct measure of temperature Directly tied and compared to SAT record Disadvantages Loss of temporal resolution with time + Hybrid Method

11. Convergence of Reconstructions

12. Borehole Test for Reconstructions

14. Borehole Temperatures and Climate Change 1.Ramp inversion of borehole temperatures yields 1.2 °C of warming from ca 1500 to year 2000. 2. The hybrid (SAT + borehole T) model yields 1.1 °C of warming from ca 1750 to year 2000. 3.Several proxy reconstructions are converging on 1 °C of warming. 4.Cautions: frequency sensitivity; spatial coverage; seasonality; etc. 5.Borehole temperatures provide tests for long term climate reconstructions.