1. 2016-1-241 Analysis of Risk Network Behavior in Project Management Based on Simulation and Mathematical Modeling Chao FANG Supervisors: J.C. BOCQUET, Franck MARLE Project Management Research Group LGI, Ecole Centrale Paris

2. 2016-1-242 Outline  Background  Risk Interaction Network Model  Simulation Analysis  Summary & Future Work

3. 2016-1-243 Outline  Background  Risk Interaction Network Model  Simulation Analysis  Summary & Future Work

4. 2016-1-244 Importance of Project Risk Management  Society is more than ever exposed and averse to risks  Project management is basically a risky activity:  targets and constraints  uncertainty and change  complex with interrelated parameters

5. Complexity of Project and Risks  The growing complexity of project induces the complexly interacted risk network.

6. Current Methodologies and Problems  Most classical methods of PRM independently analyze individual risks 2016-1-246

7. Current Methodologies and Problems  Tree-structure methods still focus on single risk  Bayesian Belief Network  Not practical for large network  Not adapt to properties of risk interactions  Could not model “loop” 2016-1-247

8. 8 Outline  Background  Risk Interaction Network Model  Simulation Analysis  Summary & Future Work

9. 2016-1-249 Methodologies in Modeling Process  Identification of interactions  Expertise  DSM (Design Structure Matrix)  Evaluation of interactions  Expertise  Previous experience  Modeling of risk network  By simulation  By mathematical algorithm

10. 2016-1-2410 Original Project Risk List (case study)

11. 2016-1-2411 Risk Interaction Matrix (case study)

12. 2016-1-2412 Risk Interaction Network (case study)

13. 2016-1-2413 Outline  Background  Risk Interaction Network Model  Simulation Analysis  Summary & Future Work

14. 2016-1-2414 Simulation Model in ARENA (case study)

15. 2016-1-2415 Simulation Results (case study)  Some improbable risks have significant raising ratio  Some underestimated risks escalate into higher level

16. 2016-1-2416 Outline  Background  Risk Interaction Network Model  Simulation Analysis  Summary & Future Work

17. 2016-1-2417 Summary  Investigation of limits in literature  Risk interaction network model  Case study on a real project  Simulation results compared with classical methods  Underestimation of some risks with classical analysis due to the false independence assumption

18. 2016-1-2418 Future Work  Develop a mathematical model in order to approximate the behavior of the network (to be compared with simulation)  Analyze consequence of complex scenarios like “loop”  Tramway infrastructure project case study  More parameters like time and cost of risks will be included and calculated  Potential risk response and control solution

19. 2016-1-2419 Merci de votre attention!