1. University of Minnesota Internet traffic, bandwidth, architecture, and management Andrew Odlyzko Digital Technology Center University of Minnesota http://www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko

2. University of Minnesota Internet traffic (but not revenues) growing vigorously: US growth rate: down to about 70% per year rest of world: probably close to 100% Telecom problems: overinvestment of bubble years thorough restructuring

3. University of Minnesota AMSIX (Amsterdam Internet exchange) traffic: month TB/month Aug-9824 Aug-9981 Aug-99348 Aug-01769 Aug-022,445 Aug-033,870 Aug-047,919

4. University of Minnesota Official government statistics collection finally starting: month MB/person Mar 200231 Sep 200249 Mar 200352 Sep 200379 Mar 2004 108 month MB/person Jan 2002212 Jul 2002327 Jan 2003581 Jul 20031,598 Jan 20042,855 Jul 20044,529 rough estimates for other countries today (Oct 2004): MB (megabytes) of data downloaded per person per month AustraliaHong Kong US:1,000 MB/person S. Korea2,700 MB/person

5. University of Minnesota Volume and value only weakly related: Revenue per MB for various services ServiceTypical monthly billRevenue per MB Cable $40 $0.00012 Broadband Internet 50 0.025 Wireline phone 70 0.08 Dial Internet 20 0.33 Cell phone 50 3.50 SMS 3000.00

6. University of Minnesota Long-haul is not where the action is: Construction cost$850 M Sale price$18 M Annual operating cost$10 M Lit capacity192 Gb/s Ave. transatlantic Internet traffic70 Gb/s  360networks transatlantic cable (mid 2003)

7. University of Minnesota Migration of Costs to Edges New Business Models  Customer-owned networks  Outsourcing  Analogies with multi-modal transportation model

8. University of Minnesota Additional data and speculations: www.dtc.umn.edu/~odlyzko Especially in the papers: “The many paradoxes of broadband” “Internet traffic growth: Sources and implications” “Pricing and architecture of the Internet” “Telecom dogma and spectrum allocations”