1. Recent Global Crop Production Shortfalls
USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) Office of Global Analysis (OGA) International Production Assessment Division (IPAD)
Image Source: West, Paul C, et al, "Trading carbon for food: Global comparison of carbon stocks vs. crop yields on agricultural land”, Proceedings of the National Academy of Science, November 16, 2010, vol. 107, no. 46, pp ,

2. Record soybean($17.89/bu) & corn prices ($8.49/bu).
2007 price hike from low global stocks, record droughts & US corn ethanol demand
1970’s price hike
Landsat-1 launched on July 23, 1972 and first predecessor WASDE report (10/14/80) released on Sept. 17, 1973.

3. Low stocks raise prices
Low stock levels raised prices.
0.2 is 73-days (0.2*365) of stocks

4. Global Corn Production
~350 MT
~65 MT
~200 MT
~90 MT
>80% corn produced in northern hemisphere
>80% corn produced in northern hemisphere and 100MT is exported globally
2011 Global Corn Statistics

5. -26% yield reduction from May’s forecast
Analog year analysis (1988) and assume normal weather to end of crop season
-26% yield reduction from May’s forecast
Corn yield forecast from trend yield analysis by USDA/WAOB
Corn yield forecast from ground sample surveys by USDA/NASS
Source: USDA-WAOB (World Agriculture Outlook Board) , Monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

6. US Corn Yields -26% May 2012 trend yield forecast = 166 bushels/acre
= tons/hectare
-26%
September 2012 yield estimate = 123 bushels/acre = 7.7 tons/hectare

7. Record US Corn Production Shortfall (104 MMT) between May & September, 2012
-27% reduction
in corn production forecast
-72 MMT
2012 drought caused record US corn production shortfall (difference between May & September) of 104 MMT.
MMT

8. Global Corn Production Difference
103 MT=4.08 Billion Bushels
4 BB* $7/bushel=$28 Billion lost

9. US Ethanol Plant Locations & Construction Timeline
Sources: Top-Left: USDA/FAS/OGA/IPAD Top-Right: USDA/NASS (right) Bottom: RFA (Renewable Fuels Association)

10. U.S. Corn Use for Ethanol and Share of Total Use
Note: Projections for 2011/12 and 2012/13 are from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

11. U.S. Corn Exports and Share of Total Use
Note: Projections for 2011/12 and 2012/13 are from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

12. U.S. Corn Ending Stocks and Stocks-to-Use
Note: Projections for 2011/12 and 2012/13 are from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates report.

13. U.S. Corn Price Received by Producers
Note: Projections for 2011/12 and 2012/13 are from the August 10, 2012, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report.

14. Global Exports: Soybean Trade Surpassed Wheat & Corn after 2002
Soybeans surpass wheat & corn.
Soybean trade surpassed wheat and corn after 2002.

15. China Soybean Imports August 12, 2010 USDA/FAS/OGA
China soybean imports will exceed 50 million tons and 10 years ago was only 10 million tons. The soybeans are imported from the three top producers, or US, Brazil, and Argentina.
Source: USDA-WAOB, World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) and PSD Online
August 12, 2010
USDA/FAS/OGA 15

16. Soybean Expansion in Brazil
Brazil has shown the greatest increase in cropland area during the past 50 years. The expansion has penetrated the southern fringes of the Amazon forest but the largest expansion has been within the cerrado. Future expansion will also occur in the Cerrado and reduce in the Amazon due to environment pressures.
Soybean expansion occurred in cerrado (i.e., savannah), with no-till farming reducing erosion from high rainfall rates and greater volumes of fertilizers (kg/ha) used to replenish leached soils.
USDA/FAS/OGA/IPAD 16

17. Slight gain in global crop area
Global production gains from increased yields
Slight gain in global crop area
Global production data for the three major commodities (wheat, soybean, and corn) indicate increase in area during the past 50-years is small in comparison to the increase in yields.

18. Greatest gains in corn yields & global corn yields continue to increase
Less yield gains in wheat and soybean, and yields beginning to flat line.
Global production data for the three major commodities (wheat, soybean, and corn) indicate increase in area during the past 50-years is small in comparison to the increase in yields.

19. US corn yields beginning to plateau near 10 tons/hectare
The Green Revolution has not arrived in Africa as corn yields have only increased slightly during the past 50-years.
“Green Revolution” with hybrid seeds, fertilizers, etc. has not completely arrived in Africa.

20. Southern Africa Agro-climates for Different Seed Varieties
Pannar Seed Extravaganza in South Africa with future attendance (hopefully) from FEWSNET national reps from neighboring SADC countries.

21. How to Maximize Grain Production to Meet National Grain Demands??
Drought Prone Areas
Provide hybrid seeds & fertilizers in high potential agro-climates with fertile soils.
USAID-Zimbabwe now distribute input seed/fertilizer packages according to agro-climate zones.

22. Four Corn Hybrid Series in Zimbabwe
Montsanto has developed multi-tiller corn where five cobs grow from several tillers.
Source: Zimbabwe Seed Co. Product Manual 2010/11
USDA/FAS/OGA/IPAD

23. Local market (75-km north of Juba) with most products from Kampala
USAID Paved & Opened Jube-Nimule Highway on Sept 12, 2012 (tarmac road from Juba to Kampala & Mombasa)
Source:
Tarmac roads in the south will pass through high potential agriculture regions in South Sudan and agriculture markets will greatly improve with tarmac roads from Juba to southern neighboring countries.
Local market (75-km north of Juba) with most products from Kampala
Main “highway” 10-km North of Juba

24. Global Production (Area & Yield) Trends:
Record 2012 US corn production shortfall (~104 MMT) from opening MY forecast in May.
Record maximum temperature, heat waves (>95-105oF) and droughts during Northern Hemisphere summers (July/August) will greatly reduce global crop production over major grain belts.
Global stocks at record lows as demand outstrips production.
Corn demand significantly increased with US corn ethanol.
Crop yield improvements beginning to flat-line in countries with highest yields, indicating yield gains beginning to plateau.
Crop yields in Africa can increase with better seeds, fertilizers & infrastructure.
Global crop area expansion beginning to flat-line and land grab deals in Africa are increasing.
USDA/FAS/OGA/IPAD

25. Thank you!
USDA/FAS/OGA/IPAD