1. Developing Interagency Partnerships to Improve the Red Flag Warning in Florida Sean Luchs – NOAA/NWS Green Bay 1 Jeff Evans – NOAA/NWS Houston-Galveston 2 Tim Barry – NOAA/NWS Tallahassee 1 Formerly Florida Forest Service 2 Formerly NOAA/NWS Tallahassee Questions? Want More Details? Email sean.luchs@noaa.gov or, if you’re Twitter-inclined, try @LuchsLikeRain 2010 – Nearly Record Quiet Fire Activity, But Triple Digit Red Flag Days In 2010, the amount of acreage burned in Florida was near record low levels – indeed, without an active December that doubled the annual acreage, a record would have been likely. Despite this, loose red flag criteria – low relative humidity and wind, long durations of low RH, or low RH and high instability – resulted in more than 100 red flag days in some Florida WFOs, even ignoring the active month of December. Daryl Herzmann (@akrherz) tweeted this graphic in 2014, which highlights how serious this problem had been. The Red Flag Warning was the most issued VTEC product by 4 of 7 Florida WFOs in the five year period, despite significant reductions in the latter years of the period from the criteria changes. Something needed to change, but any changed red flag criteria had to be respectful of the wide range of conditions under which large fires occur in Florida’s climate and fuels. 2011 2012 2013 2014 Years of Red Flag Criteria Tweaks Added Fuel Moisture criteria using climatological percentiles of the Energy Release Component (ERC). Reductions seen, but benefits were muddied by an extremely active fire year. More RFWs than a typical year were warranted, but numbers were still high. Ancillary Benefits Special thanks to the Iowa Environmental Mesonet for developing tools that made most maps ( https://mesonet.agron.iastate.edu) and the Florida Forest Service for Open Burn Authorization data (http://www.floridaforestservice.com) Removed the dispersion criterion. Very unstable days, using the old RFW threshold, are still highlighted in Planning Forecast headlines for safety, but no longer drive warning decisions. Regionalization: State split by WFOs into North Florida and Peninsular Florida. Rekeyed critical humidity and fuel moisture thresholds to each region’s largest 10% of fires Stability. Same criteria as 2013, and a year with low fire activity, comparable to 2010. Much fewer than 100+ red flag days! Mobile and Tallahassee now see greater influence from Alabama criteria. Prescribed burning restrictions were intentionally kept separate from RFW decisions to give FFS district managers independence to serve a diverse array of burners and incorporate non-weather factors. Despite this, stricter burning restrictions began to track more closely with RFW issuances, a good sign the new criteria were in line with the goals of the program. The process of changing the warning criteria also resulted in stronger interagency relationships, shown in several ways: -Daily FFS presence in NWSChat -DSS emails from NWS to both state and local FFS offices -Partnership in delivering firefighter training -Reinstituted state fire weather meeting after 15 years -NWS familiarity visits and weather support for prescribed burns with state and federal land management agencies. Remaining Challenges -Observation density can be an issue, resulting in a few counties with unrepresentative ERC values and unnecessary red flag days. -Statistics used were simply calculated using US Forest Service software. Though the strongest statistical relationships were used, they may not be as robust as possible. This could probably be improved with more sophisticated statistical analysis. -Continuity is a major future question. The criteria were designed to require frequent review to keep criteria relevant, and encourage close relationships. Will it survive over the years as the individuals involved change? Extended Abstract at http://go.usa.gov/3JrD4 Least Restrictive Most Restrictive