1. Electric / Gas / Water Summary of Final Evaluation Report Prepared by: John Cavalli, Itron Beatrice Mayo, PG&E July 27, 2006 2003 Express Efficiency Program Evaluation

2. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 2 Evaluation Objectives Participation Assessment Assess participation trends over time (2000-03), in particular HTR participation Program Verification and Savings Assessment Assess IOU inspection process and analyze inspection databases Verify that measures were installed and program-qualifying Estimate CFL annual operating hours and effective useful life Provide an evaluation estimate of program savings Process Assessment Examine program awareness, customer satisfaction, and program influence. Assess lighting vendor CFL installation practices, opinions on rebate levels, and ideas for program improvements.

3. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 3 Program Targets and Accomplishments Overall, the program exceeded goals, as measured by the ex ante savings estimates. –Energy and demand savings: –HTR accomplishments:

4. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 4 Program Accomplishments PY2000-03 kWh Savings By Customer Size

5. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 5 Program Accomplishments PY2000-03 kWh Savings By Technology

6. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 6 Program Verification Results Applications– were entered correctly. Measure Accomplishments and Ex Ante Values – were verified comparing tracking data, CPUC Final workbooks and PIPs. HTR Accomplishments – were verified comparing tracking data and CPUC Final workbooks. Review of inspection databases confirmed IOU inspection procedures and illustrated representative sample of measures.

7. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 7 Program Verification Results Measure Installations were verified through 662 telephone surveys, and 100 on-sites. –3% of CLFs and Other Lighting were not verified.

8. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 8 CFL Operating Hour Assessment Overall, the annual hours of operation were estimated to be 2,709, or one third less than the ex ante estimate. Based on 60 monitored sites across 5 business types and 2 size segments.

9. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 9 Effective Useful Life Assessment The EUL for CFLs was estimated to be 3 years. –Only 38% of the 8 year ex ante estimate. Estimated using an average manufacturer rated life of 7,962 hours, and annual operating hours of 2,709. –Based on data collected at 60 sites, representing 8,538 integral CFLs.

10. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 10 Evaluation Savings Assessment Overall, annual savings were reduced by 24% due to the verification findings and CFL operating hour adjustment. Lifecycle savings were reduced by 41%, by the additional CFL EUL adjustment. CFL savings were reduced by 34% for first year savings, and 75% for lifecycle savings. Therm savings were unchanged.

11. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 11 Process Assessment Interviews with 542 Participants Interviews with 30 lighting vendors

12. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 12 Sources of Program Awareness Contractors remain the most effective delivery mechanism

13. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 13 Influential Factors on Decision to Purchase Rising Energy Bills where the most influential factor on customers decision to purchase energy efficient equipment.

14. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 14 Satisfaction Participants are Satisfied with all aspects of the Program, especially with Contractor performance.

15. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 15 Program Influence – Equipment Condition Most Lighting participants replaced old equipment that was in operating condition. Most HVAC and Agriculture participants replaced failed equipment, or equipment that had problems. Most Food Service Participants installed new equipment.

16. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 16 Program Influence – Actions In Absence of Program Most Lighting participants would not have purchased energy efficient equipment. Most HVAC and Food Service participants would have purchased the same equipment at the same time. Most Agriculture Participants would have purchased energy efficient equipment, but at a later time.

17. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 17 Vendor Assessment – CFL Installation Practices The program shifted away from modular to integral CFLs: 95% of the CFLs installed were integral. The majority (59%) of CFL installers report that they leave extra lamps behind. –These vendors tend to leave roughly 2.4% extra lamps to replace burn outs. On average, 11% of the CFLs installed by vendors replaced existing CFLs (not just rebated jobs).

18. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 18 Vendor Opinions on Lighting Rebate Levels Two-thirds of the vendors desired an increase rebates for linear fluorescent fixtures. –Mentioned more than any other measure. –No vendor suggested decreasing rebates for linear fixtures. Vendors suggested that CFL rebates be decreased more than any other measure, –However, less than 20% made this suggestion. A few vendors also recommend smaller rebates for controls and sensors.

19. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 19 Lighting Vendor Recommendations Speed up application process: –Electronic application submission. –Build payment release form into application. Allow large customers into Express Efficiency. Educate vendors on delamping strategies –Such as different light levels for various applications so they are confident that their light levels are appropriate for their application.

20. Knowledge to Shape Your Future 20 Recommendations for Future Research Lighting Impact Load Shape Measurement for T-8s Measure Life Study for CFLs Net-to-Gross Study for Express Statewide Retrofit Express Billing Analysis Assess Rebate Levels All the above are being addressed in the 2004-05 Express Efficiency Evaluation.