1. The TPP milestone: trade policy in the Asia-Pacific Peter A
The TPP milestone: trade policy in the Asia-Pacific Peter A. Petri Brandeis University, East-West Center and Peterson Institute Seoul ▪ November 2015

2. Trade policy, 2015 What are megaregionals? Past megaregionals?
Large, high-quality agreements with systemic impact
Past megaregionals?
European Union
NAFTA
New megaregionals
TPP
TTIP (EU-US)
RCEP (16 countries, East Asia)
FTAAP (21 countries, APEC)

3. 77% world GDP
TTIP
44%
RCEP
26%
TPP
38%

4. What drives the TPP? Global value chains Technology Politics
> Fast, reliable connectivity in goods and information
Remove border and regulatory barriers
Create access to world-class services
Enable investment
Technology
> Innovative, secure digital commerce
Keep data flows free
Protect digital intellectual property
Provide for privacy with cybersecurity
Politics
Labor, environment, development
Geopolitics

5. What did the TPP accomplish?
Achievements
Liberal services with “negative list”
Liberal investment with “negative list”
Liberal e-commerce
Liberal data flows
Cumulative rules of origin
Stronger regulatory framework
Protection of environment, worker rights
Compromises
Market access (autos, agriculture)
Intellectual property
Long phase-in periods
Hidden exceptions?

6. Ratification in the US Necessary steps: It’s too big to fail!
Publish the agreement
USITC study (up to 6 months?)
Draft implementing legislation
March-May: Congressional vote?
In middle of US presidential primaries?
Alternative 1: November lame-duck session
Alternative 2: early next presidential term
It’s too big to fail!

7. What comes after the TPP?
Suddenly, a big trade agenda
Competitive liberalization
Expansion of the TPP
Conclusion of TTIP, RCEP
Plurilateral agreements in Geneva
Big bi/trilaterals: CJK, China-US, India-US
FTAAP?
But it won’t be fast
KORUS took 5-7 years
TPP took 7-8 years
RCEP is in year 3…

8. What would the TPP do for Korea?
Market access
Japan and other economies
Indirect trade
Cumulation effects: exports to Viet Nam, Mexico
Link into value chains of the TPP network
Influence
In evolution of TPP
In regional agreements such as FTAAP
As intermediary between China and US?

9. Scenarios for Korea, 2025 ($billions)
GDP
TPP
With Korea
RCEP
FTAAP
Korea
2,117 -3 46 82
129
United States
20,273 77 78 -0
267
China
17,249
-35
-47
250
678
World
103,223
223
295
644
1,922
Note: based on 2012 simulations, to be updated soon.

10. asiapacifictrade.org