1. Work Plan 2009-10 Resource Adequacy Forum Technical Committee July 29, 2009

2. 2 Major Tasks Benchmarking Process Peer Review of Methodology

3. July 29, 20093 Benchmarking Process Goal – develop a process to ensure that the adopted standard will lead to an adequate power supply Data – Assure that information about demand and resources is current and accurate Tools – Assure that analytical computer models accurately reflect the operation of the power system

4. July 29, 20094 Steps to Model Validation 1.HYDSIM vs. actual monthly hydro generation 2.GENESYS vs. HYDSIM hydro output 3.Hydro peaking calibration (in progress) 4.Check random variable distributions 5.Simulated thermal dispatch vs. historical (draft) 6.Simulated hydro dispatch vs. historical (draft) 7.Simulated dispatch vs. scheduler’s perspective 8.AURORA vs. GENESYS dispatch

5. July 29, 20095 Genesys Status Operating year: October to September Hourly loads input file added Hourly wind capacity input file added Federal Genesys beta version being tested Not yet able to do multiple year studies

6. July 29, 20096 Peer Review Process Goal – To assure that methods and metrics used to assess power supply adequacy are appropriate Method – Review the use of LOLP and consider other measures of adequacy Contingency Resource – How can we best define a contingency resource (aka curtailment threshold)? Metric – Is converting probabilistic results into load/resource balances and capacity reserve margins acceptable?

7. July 29, 20097 PSRI Initial Comments LOLP very common but lacks info on magnitude EENS is a common alternative but doesn’t reflect well the probability of failure CVaR is a suggested compromise Translating into L/R balance and CRM is useful but only to complement real measure Peak and energy assessments should be separate

8. July 29, 20098 Further Review What probabilistic adequacy metrics are available? How can they be used to develop resource acquisition strategies? Should energy and capacity issues be treated separately? How can the proper sustained-peak period duration be assessed? How can we integrate our adequacy metric with other West Coast area metrics that are different and designed for mostly thermal systems? How should reserve requirements be treated? How important is developing a future value function to price hydroelectric generation for dispatch purposes? How good (or bad) is using energy/capacity relationships to build hydroelectric energy blocks for hourly dispatch? Do you see any shortcomings in the dispatch logic used, either for monthly or hourly simulations?