1. Understanding Science 9. Science and Scientists © Colin Frayn, 2015 www.frayn.net

2. Recap Science is a process for gaining knowledge –Designed to be robust and trustworthy Science uses analytical and empirical methods –Mathematical proofs and gathering evidence The Spectrum of Certainty Bayes’ Theorem & Scientific Method Pseudoscience –Pretends to be a science, but isn’t © Colin Frayn, 2015 www.frayn.net Certainly True Certainly False Neutral

3. Scientists A scientist is someone who uses science prominently in their job –A chemist, a physicist, a geologist… Science is a skill to be learned –Different people learn it to different levels You don’t have to earn money from science to be a scientist –Just like being a musician Many people play music for many reasons, and to varying skill levels Only a few earn a living from it Only a few have any official academic qualification What you learned in school is just a tiny fraction of it! © Colin Frayn, 2015 www.frayn.net

4. The Scientific Establishment 19 th Century: –The Gentleman Scientist –Science as a profession begins –Scientific theories now too complicated for the amateur –Collaboration even more important than before –Formalising the exchange of knowledge Nature (1869), Science (1880) 20 th Century –Science education in schools –Dept. of Scientific and Industrial Research (UK, 1915) –National Science Foundation (US, 1950) –Formal peer review for journals (e.g. Nature - 1967) –Big Science (e.g. LHC, HST) © Colin Frayn, 2015 www.frayn.net

5. Mistakes and Denial Scientists often make mistakes –Isaac Newton Secret papers revealed his extensive research into alchemy –Albert Einstein Refused to accept the full implications of the field of Quantum Physics –Fred Hoyle Coined the term “Big Bang” as a joke Continued to deny it his whole life © Colin Frayn, 2015 www.frayn.net

6. Fraud Scientists sometimes cheat and lie –Andrew Wakefield MMR/Autism fraud 1998 paper alleged MMR – Autism link 2010 : Lancet retracted the 1998 paper Banned from practising medicine in the UK –Yoshitaka Fujii Researcher in Anaesthesiology Fabricated data in at least 172 papers February 2012 – dismissed from his post © Colin Frayn, 2015 www.frayn.net

7. Implications Mistrust –GMOs, Nuclear power, health advice Disengagement –Lack of STEM graduates –Economic implications Denialism –Global warming –Evolution –Vaccinations © Colin Frayn, 2015 www.frayn.net

8. Rooting Out Error Science is implemented by human beings –Despite precautions, mistakes happen Mistakes are not permanent –All claims can and should be examined –No sacred cows Science is self-correcting –Large and varied community of individuals –Encourages to share results –Incentivised to find and correct errors © Colin Frayn, 2015 www.frayn.net

9. Peer Review Scientific claims should be analysed by independent experts Claims could be wrong for many reasons: –Fraud –Experimental biases –Analytical mistakes –Ignorance Peer review is not perfect –Peers can be equally biased; ignorant; corrupt; lazy –But it’s a very good start –…and it’s not the final word © Colin Frayn, 2015 www.frayn.net

10. Groupthink “A new scientific truth does not triumph by convincing its opponents and making them see the light, but rather because its opponents eventually die, and a new generation grows up that is familiar with it.” Max Planck (1858-1947) Partly true, though exaggerated –History is full of examples of scientists who changed their minds Darwin (Creation), Hawking (Black Holes), Bill Nye (GMOs) Imagine you could create a system to resist this –Make no facts sacred –Incentivise contrariness –Insist on objective evidence Ignore anecdote, opinion, hearsay etc. –Ideas should stand on their own merits In other words, science! © Colin Frayn, 2015 www.frayn.net

11. Summary Science is a set of methods –Scientists do science for a job –…but anyone can do science Human beings are fallible –Deliberate misinformation –Accidental bias –Honest mistakes Science itself provides the optimal way to counter this –It insists on excellent evidence –It is self-criticising –It is open to change No scientific theory is beyond doubt –It is self-correcting © Colin Frayn, 2015 www.frayn.net