1. Charge to the Working Groups

2. 2 Establish a common framework – Dimensions of the modeling challenge Develop an initial strategy for improvement – Broad areas of focus over time – Role of modeling vs. HITL experimentation Identify specific needs and opportunities – Decisions that should be modeled* – Characteristics that should be emphasized – Current state-of-the-art – Promising approaches for improvement – Areas requiring research Update strategy for improvement * Would you want the model to present options?

3. 3 Candidate Dimensions for DM Modeling Framework Cognitive Model RationalNaturalistic Level of Intelligence LearningAdaptiveCompetitive Performance Parameters Rate of Decision Making Quality of Decision Time Delay OrganizationalIndividual C2 Process SimpleComplex Complexity of Decision C2 Functionality Create COA Select COA Develop Plan Select Targets Human Factors Physiological Limitations Experience Personality Decision Support System Cognitive Display Interactive What If Degree of Automation Level of Model Complexity Simple ModelComplex Model Table Look-Up

4. 4 Situations/Vignettes for Working Groups Campaign Echelon of Decision-Making StrategicOperationalTactical KoreaSWA Disrupt by Fire Precision Strike Dominant Maneuver Columbia Lebanon KosovoTake the Hill

5. 5 Strategic: Korea 1950 Blue forces have been driven into the Pusan pocket, but are ready to conduct a counterattack. The Blue commander has identified two choices: –Probe for weaknesses in Red’s line and use mechanized reserve forces to break out of the Pusan pocket. –Flank Red by performing an amphibious landing behind Red’s front line, then drive out of the Pusan pocket.

6. 6 Korea 1950

7. 7 Operational: Lebanon A paramilitary faction calling itself “Black December” has denounced Syria, its erstwhile supporter, condemning King Assad for negotiating with Israel. The faction has broken free from Syrian control and is conducting terrorist attacks threatening to unravel a peace agreement that would return the Golan to Syria. Lebanese authorities have been unable to suppress the group and have asked the United States to act to save the peace process. The Blue commander must consider the following in planning strikes: –Collateral damage to civilians and their property must be avoided or minimized. –Most bases and training camps are located in mountainous or hilly terrain that is difficult to approach by air assets. –Black December is known to possess AAA weapons and shoulder- launched SAMs that would pose a threat to low-flying aircraft.

8. 8 Lebanon

9. 9 Tactical: Take the Hill This situation presents the information on the terrain and order of battle necessary to work the tactical “solution” to performing the mission: taking the hill. Blue commander has: –an infantry battalion consisting of three rifle companies –supporting mortar sections (can range entire map area) –fixed wing and rotary wing CAS Red has: –one rifle company defending hill, with reinforcements on the way Blue commander has been told to “take the hill.”

10. 10 Take the Hill

11. 11 Working Groups Agenda Today 1400-1700First Sessions in Suite 250 meeting rooms Wednesday 0800-1200Second Sessions 1300-1400Status Reports (Plenary in Auditorium) 1400-1700Third Sessions Thursday 0800-1200Fourth Sessions 1300-1500Fifth Sessions 1500-1640Final Outbriefs (30 minutes each group - Auditorium)

12. 12 Working Group Chairs and Room Assignments Working Group 1 Full Spectrum Dominance Suite 250 MR4 Wood, Tony -- co-chair Leedom, Dennis -- co-chair Brown, Samuel Burdick, Chuck Cohen, Marvin Dreyer, Paul Friel, John Hiniker, Paul Keithley, Hans Page, Ward Perry, Walt Serfaty, Daniel Youngren, Mark Christie, Cara Working Group 3 Precision Strike Suite 250 MR3 Barry, Philip -- co-chair Noble, David -- co-chair Bates, Edgar Brandstein, Al Eash, Joe Furness, Zach Graebener, Bob Kamai, Moses Levis, Alex Pernin, Chris Smith, Edward Tanner, Michael Thompson, Kris Working Group 2 Dominant Maneuver Suite 250 MR2 Wilson, Dick -- co-chair Moore, Louis -- co-chair Bjorkman, Eileen Chartier, Chris Elrick, Paul Glasow, Priscilla Klein, Gary Marken, Richard Saunders-Newton, Dez Whittaker, Greg Willis, Ruth Leary, Alison

13. 13 Synthesis Group David Alberts Chuck Taylor Dave Signori Richard Hayes Mark Mandeles Larry Wiener John McDaniel