1. Does College Education Impact Adult Morbidities? Evidence From Pre-Lottery Vietnam War Draft Bo MacInnis Institute for Social Research University of Michigan

2. 2 Motivations Health behaviors and morbidities as potential mechanisms for Understanding education-mortality relation Curbing rising health care costs College education Steepest gradient observed Steady decline in males’ college enrollment

3. 3

4. 4 Education-Health Gradient BA+Some College HS< HS Ever smoked0.450.57 0.68 Hypertension0.220.280.300.40 Obesity0.390.52 0.59 Mental Distress0.0170.0390.0400.108 Type 2 diabetes0.0360.0540.0590.095 Author’s calculations from NHIS 1998-2003

5. 5 Enrollment rate: females Card & Lemieux 2000

6. 6 Enrollment rate: males

7. 7 Education-Health Literature Instruments for college education Arkes (2001): Unemployment rate. Reduce work-limiting health conditions Currie and Moretti (2003): College opening. Increases infant’s birth weight Lleras-Muney (2002), Adams (2002): Compulsory school law. Reduces mortality; increases good health Kenkel etc. (2006): K-12 education policy. High school graduation reduces smoking.

8. 8 Smoking & College Education De Walque (2004), Grimard & Parent (2005) Vietnam War draft: Card and Lemieux (2001) Reduce smoking initiation No evidence on smoking cessation Contributions Discontinuity research design Endogenous effect of veteran status

9. 9 Annual Number of Inductions

10. 10 A Quasi-Natural Experiment Pre-lottery draft: 1965-1969 Most draftees were aged 19-22 Deferments were easily obtainable College attendance Children and other family hardship High inductions Consequence for males of cohorts 1945-50

11. 11 A Quasi-Natural Experiment (cont.) Draft lottery institutionalized in 1970 Random Sequence Number (RSN) 1970 lottery for cohorts 1946-50 1971-3 lottery for cohort 1951-3 respectively Much reduced inductions College deferments effectively eliminated Consequence to males of cohorts 1951-1953

12. 12 Induction Risks and College Education

13. 13 Induction Risks and Male-Female Difference in College Education

14. 14 Treatment Exposure

15. 15 Data National Health Interview Survey (NHIS) 1998-2003 Personal characteristics (veteran status) Health outcomes: chronic conditions Lifestyle behaviors: smoking Body weight and height Base sample Males and females U.S. born of birth cohorts 1942-1953, sample size = 30,158

16. 16 Smoking Initiation and Cessation

17. 17 BMI Distributions: Gender & College

18. 18 BMI Distributions: Gender & College

19. 19 Estimation Health = b*educ + b 1 *veteran + X*B + b 2 *trend + error Linear probability model for educ, veteran, health IV for educ = male * cohorts 1946-1950 IV for veteran = male * draft age eligibility Difference of age in 1967 and 19 (quartic terms) trend = no/linear/quadratic trend X = age, gender, race, survey year, and interactions Two-stage least square estimation

20. 20 First Stage: College Education Spec.UnadjustedNo trendLinear trend Quadratic trend College Enrollment 0.0345 *** (0.0118) 0.0311 * (0.0179) 0.0388 * (0.0178) 0.0335 * (0.0190) College Completion 0.0202 ** (0.0102) 0.0366 ** (0.0137) 0.0367 ** (0.0151) 0.0363 ** (0.0154) sample = U.S. born males and females of cohorts 1942-1953; sample size = 30,158; standard errors are in parentheses. ***, **, *: significant at 1%, 5%, 10%.

21. 21 Estimates of the Impact of College on Morbidities Regular vs. Never ObesityHyper- tension Mental Distress Type 2 Diabetes College Enrollment -0.663 ** (0.307) -0.42 (0.38) -0.42 (0.32) -0.14 ** (0.06) 0.10 (0.14) College Completion -0.600 ** (0.259) -0.70 ** (0.32) -1.01 (1.02) -0.12 ** (0.06) -0.33 ** (0.18) Sample size20,13119,14319,631 28,715 **: p <.05

22. 22 Robustness Checks Control for linear, and quadratic trend Use various measures of induction risk as instruments for schooling and veteran Avoidance choices besides going to college Emigrate to Canada – sample selection issue Become delinquent Obtain dependency deferments

23. 23 Canadian Emigrants & Delinquents YearMaleMale R*FemaleFemale R*Delinquents 19651,9226562,592625 - 19662,4471,1813,3291,362 - 19673,0321,7663,7501,78313,500 19684,0762,8104,3302,36322,500 19694,4053,1395,1123,74730,000 19705,5104,2445,7143,74718,500 19714,7783,5125,4773,51022,500 19723,9802,7145,2783,310 - 19734,1202,8545,3563,389 -

24. 24 Live Births by Year

25. 25 Live Births by Treatment Status

26. 26 Marriages by Year

27. 27 Concluding Remarks Quasi-natural experiment & RDD strong instrument for college education Return to college includes a reduction in smoking, obesity, and diabetes Policy implications Increase college enrollment/completion rates