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2013 Economic Outlook Professor Martin Shields CSU Regional Economics Institute.

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Presentation on theme: "2013 Economic Outlook Professor Martin Shields CSU Regional Economics Institute."— Presentation transcript:

1 2013 Economic Outlook Professor Martin Shields CSU Regional Economics Institute

2 The “Recovery”

3 The Important Economic Issues The recovery will slowly continue picking up steam Unemployment will remain relatively high Falling real household income has had large negative effects on the region

4 GDP Growth Tepid, but Sustained 12 Month Change Source: US Department of Commerce

5 The Output Gap is Large Source: St. Louis Fed

6 Inflation Remains in Check Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

7 Consumer Sentiment Still Low Source: University of Michigan

8 New Housing Starts: WTF? Source: US Census Bureau

9 US Employment Below 2007 Peak 1980 1981-83 1990-93 2001-05 2007-present Source: Current Employment Survey

10 Unemployment Improving Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

11 Regional Unemployment Rate Mixed Colorado Rate: 7.3 percent Source: BLS

12 Stagnant Incomes median family income inflation adjusted Source: US Census Bureau

13 The Local Situation With 228,000 jobs Northern Colorado has 7,000 more jobs than it did 5 years ago –Over the past 12 months it has added 5,000 Stagnant wages and income remains a challenge

14 3 Years of Job Growth Source: Current Employment Survey/Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado State University

15 Northern Colorado Job Levels Exceed Pre-Recessionary Totals Great Recession Source: Current Employment Survey US about 98.5 percent

16 Weld Has Seen Manufacturing and Mining Increase Job Change: 2007Q3 - 2012Q3 +2,300 jobs Source: QCEW/Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado State University

17 Health Care Main Larimer Driver Job Change: 2007Q3 - 2012Q3 +1,600 Jobs Source: QCEW/Colorado Department of Labor and Employment and Colorado State University

18 Local Industry Watch Poised to grow –Energy –Health care –Professional & business services –Wholesale trade Continued struggles –Government –Financial activities –Information


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