2. Covariation between North Pacific climate and auklet demographic parameters at three western Aleutian islands during 1990-2008 Ian L. Jones Biology Department, Memorial University of Newfoundland

3. Due to their low trophic level, planktivorous seabirds’ demography might rapidly reflect changes in ocean productivity and zooplankton abundance Objective Measure auklet survival, productivity and chick diet at three western Aleutian Islands to look for effects of changing climate and oceanography, inferred from covariance across species, islands and years

4. Auklets (Auks, Alcidae Aethiini genus Aethia) Long-lived planktivorous monogamous colonial seabirds Least Auklet Crested Auklet Whiskered Auklet Smallest Eats copepods Migratory, disperses widely in winter Largest Eats euphausiids Migratory, localized in winter Intermediate Mixed diet Resident Aleutians only

6. Predictions If auklet demography is regulated by very large scale climate processes then Survival, productivity, diet should correlate among: auklet species different island colony sites and with climate covariates

7. Scale effects Survival - largest scale - measured on an annual basis, birds widely dispersed in North Pacific Productivity - more local scale, reflects conditions near colony site, during breeding season only Chick diet - during chick rearing (July) only

8. product of a collaboration Co-investigators Vernon Byrd, Jeff Williams, Art Sowls -Alaska Maritime NWR Alex Bond, Heather Major - grad students Fieldworkers G. Beyersdorf, K. Brenneman, J. Citta, T. Clarke, L. Cowen, A. Durand, E. Drew, B. Drummond, J. Fisher, G. Fraser, M. Grinnell, M. Hipfner, S. Hootman, A. Hunt, N. Jones, T. Joyce, P. Kappes, H. Knechtel, N. Konyukhov, S. Lantz, G. Loh, S. Lorenz, H. Major, J. Marais, G. McClelland, L. Meehan, M. Murphy, A. Nunez de la Mora, M. Ortwerth, A. Palmer, L. Parker, J. Pennell, M. Renner, H. Renner, D. Roby, N. Rojek, L. Scharf, K. Shea, E. Sommer, G. Spencer, J. Sutton, I. Stevenson, G. Thomson, A. Veit, N. Winter, J. Wade, V. Zubakin et al. Discussions John Piatt, Dan Roby, Sasha Kitaysky et al.

9. Three study islands 1990-2008 (19) 2001-2008 (8) 1996-2007 (12) 400 nm

10. Buldir Kiska Kasatochi

11. Pitfalls Land-based predators (rats and gulls) Arduous capture-mark-recapture Replication not Climate covariates

12. NPI: sea level pressure over 30N-65N, 160E-140W ALPI: area with pressure <100.5 kPa, anomaly from mean PDO: PC1 of North Pacific monthly SST

13. NPI: sea level pressure over 30N-65N, 160E-140W ALPI: area with pressure <100.5 kPa, anomaly from mean PDO: PC1 of North Pacific monthly SST

14. NPI: sea level air pressure over 30N-65N, 160E-140W ALPI: area with air pressure <100.5 kPa PDO: PC1 of North Pacific monthly SST When pressure is low and Aleutian Low is big, North Pacific near Aleutians is cool and churned up (MORE PRODUCTIVE) but also STORMIER

16. Main Talus LeAu & CrAu 1990-2008 Crested Point WhAu 1992-2008 Buldir

17. Kiska Sirius Point LeAu & CrAu 1996-2008

18. Kasatochi Thundering Talus LeAu & CrAu 1996-2007

19. Kasatochi October 2009 Jerry Morris photo

20. Kasatochi September 2009 Chris Waythomas photo

21. Survival Concordance across islands - Least Auklet

22. Survival Concordance across islands - Crested Auklet

23. Survival Concordance between species NOT

24. Survival Climate covariates - Least Auklet

25. Survival Climate covariates - Crested Auklet

26. Productivity Poorly correlated between species and islands Least Auklet Crested Auklet Productivity Year

27. Productivity vs Climate covariates ALPI - when Aleutian low is large, productivity is decreased

28. Phenology vs SST Jeff Williams

29. Chick Diet Year 19942006 Crested Auklet Least Auklet varies across years, evidence of concordance, different auklet species feed their chicks different prey taxa Neocalanus plumchrus Euphausiid Neocalanus cristatus

30. Chick Diet Year 19942006 Least Auklet Kasatochi varies between islands Neocalanus plumchrus Euphausiid Neocalanus cristatus Least Auklet Buldir

32. Conclusions (tentative) Least and Crested Auklet survival was correlated across islands 400 nm apart during 1996-2007 Survival seems to vary with large-scale climate indices in all three auklet species, ALPI Productivity was less correlated among islands and species, but seems to vary with large-scale climate indices in all three auklet species, ALPI Future analyses will focus on comparison of patterns of all of survival, productivity and diet across islands and auklet species

33. North Pacific Research Board United States Fish and Wildlife Service Alaska Maritime National Wildlife Refuge Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada Memorial University of Newfoundland Indian and Northern Affairs Canada Northern Scientific Training Program Funding acknowledgements