1. IIASA International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (IIASA) RAINS-Asia Phase 2: An Integrated Assessment Model for Controlling SO 2 Emissions in Asia M. Amann, H. Akimoto, G. Carmichael, J.-P. Hettelingh, Y. Ichikawa, K. Oka, J. Shindo, D. Streets

2. IIASA Contents Model structure Improvements Illustrative results Conclusions

3. IIASA Improvements achieved in Phase 2 Updated energy projections (2030) 400 LPS Flexible region definition, zoom-in capabilities Multi-year meteorology SO 2 concentrations in ambient air Improved database on critical loads with 0.1*0.1 degree resolution Windows-based software Improved user guidance Optimization feature

4. IIASA SO 2 emissions in Asia 1984-1998 Source: Streets et al., 2000

5. IIASA A revised energy projection for China Source: ERI, Beijing Changes 1995-2020: Population +25 % GDP+420 % Total energy demand +70 % Coal +50 % Gas +300 % Renewables +30 %

6. IIASA SO 2 concentrations annual mean [  g/m 3 ], WHO limit = 50  g/m 3 2020 with current legislation 1995

7. IIASA Sulfur deposition 2020 with current legislation 1995

8. IIASA Vegetation map of Asia Source: CCE, RIVM

9. IIASA Unprotected ecosystems with sulfur deposition above sustainable levels (critical loads) 2020 with current legislation 1995

10. IIASA Optimization in RAINS Energy/agriculture projections Emissions Emission control options Atmospheric dispersion Environmental impacts Environmental targets Costs OPTIMIZATION

11. IIASA Cost-savings through targeted (optimized) emission controls

12. IIASA Cost-savings through targeted (optimized) emission controls

13. IIASA Conclusions RAINS-Asia 2 now available on CD-ROM SO 2 emissions projections lower than 5 years ago due to slower economic growth and new legislation on emission controls But acidification problem in Asia will not be fully resolved Optimization tool can assist in finding cost-effective solutions Extension to multi-pollutant (PM, NO x, O 3, GHG?) approach seems possible and relevant

14. IIASA RAINS Asia 2 Software on CD-ROM available –Contact Asian Development Bank –or IIASA (http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains) Training sessions planned Zooming-in for national purposes possible, supported by IIASA

15. IIASA Slides of this presentation in Powerpoint format are available at http://www.iiasa.ac.at/~rains On the Internet