1. Population Estimates & Projections for the United States Emma Ernst Population Estimates Branch October 9, 2007

2. 2 Overview Who are we? What data do we produce? Why do we produce estimates and projections? How do we produce estimates and projections? When are the data available to the public? Where can you find the data?

3. 3 Who Are We? Our State Partners The Federal-State Cooperative Program for Population Estimates (FSCPE) was formed in 1967. The mission of the co-op is to: –Promote cooperation between the states and the Census Bureau; –Prepare a set of consistent state, county and subcounty estimates; –Improve and advance estimates methodology; and –Enhance the recognition of local demographic work.

4. 4 What Data Do We Produce? Estimates Population –National by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin (monthly) –State and county totals Produced in conjunction with the FSCPE –State by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin –County by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin –Incorporated place and minor civil division totals –Commonwealth of Puerto Rico by age and sex –Puerto Rico municipio by age and sex Housing units –State –County

5. 5 What Data Do We Produce? Projections Population –National by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin –State by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin

6. 6 Why Do We Produce Estimates? Federal Mandate The Intercensal Estimates Program is required under U.S.C. Title 13, Section 181: “During the intervals between each census of population…the Secretary, to the extent feasible, should annually produce and publish for each State, county, and local unit of general purpose government which has a population of fifty thousand or more, current data on total population and population characteristics and, to the extent feasible, shall biennially produce and publish for other local units of general purpose government current data on total population.”

7. 7 Why Do We Produce Estimates? Data Uses Allocation of over $200 billion in federal funds each year Controls for federal surveys –Current Population Survey –American Community Survey –Survey of Income and Program Participation –American Housing Survey Denominators for statistical rates –Birth and death rates (NCHS) –Per capita income (BEA) Program Planning –Location of public and private services

8. 8 Why Do We Produce Projections? Data Uses Base for projections of specific populations by other federal agencies –National Institute on Aging – projections of the elderly population for health and other planning –Bureau of Labor Statistics – projections of the working age population for input to labor force projections –National Cancer Institute – projections of deaths as input to projections of future cancer incidence –Department of Education – projections of school age populations for input to school enrollment projections Public and private program planning –Future need for resources and services Academic research

9. 9 How Do We Produce Estimates? National level: Cohort-component method P 2 = P 1 + B - D + NM (International Migration) State and county level: Component of change method P 2 = P 1 + B - D + NM (controlled to the national estimates) Subcounty level: Distributive housing unit method County population is distributed to subcounty parts based on updated estimates of housing

10. 10 How Do We Produce Projections? National level: Cohort-component method -Components of population change (fertility, mortality, and net migration) are projected separately for each birth cohort -Base population is advanced each year by using projected survival rates and net international migration -Time series analysis of components State level: Cohort component method -Controlled to the national projections

11. 11 When Are The Data Available to The Public? Estimates (for July 2006) –Dec. 2006National and state (including Puerto Rico) totals –January 2007State 18+ –March 2007County totals Puerto Rico Municipio totals –May 2007National and State demographic detail –June 2007 Subcounty totals –August 2007County demographic detail –September 2007State and county housing units

12. 12 When are the data available to the public? Projections –2005Revised National/State Totals with Census 2000 race definitions

13. 13 Where Can You Find the Data?

14. 14 Where Can You Find the Data? Estimates

15. 15 Where Can You Find the Data? Projections

16. 16 Contact Information Estimates: http://www.census.gov/popest/estimates.php Emma.r.ernst@census.gov