1. Process for Review of 6 th Plan Supply Curves June 19, 2009 Lauren Gage lsmgage@bpa.gov

2. DRAFT 2 Overview BPA is supportive of ambitious conservation targets.  BPA has already increased its annual goals from 52 aMW (5 th Plan targets) to 70 aMW for FY2010 in anticipation of higher 6 th Plan targets BPA has reviewed inputs and believes these are robust  Staff, with support from a consultant, has reviewed the detailed measure-specific assumptions and provided comments to Council staff

3. DRAFT 3 Targets vs. Historical Achievements In 2008, Public Power (tracked through BPA) achieved 73 aMW; 40 aMW were from CFLs Council Target Scenarios for 2010-2014 represent a large increase (greater than 250%) from Public Power 2008 non-CFL accomplishments

4. DRAFT 4 Regional Collaboration BPA staff are working with a group of regional utilities and NEEA to:  Understand the details of the energy efficiency supply curves  Characterize the “readiness” of each technology  Begin discussions of research needs and appropriate implementation strategy (e.g., market transformation, local utility program, code/standard change) Following slides show preliminary results based on small collaboration of regional planning staff Next steps: work with Council staff, NEEA and more regional staff to finalize

5. DRAFT 5 Measure Characterization Framework RTF Status (Deemed, Provisional, Approved M&V, None) Readiness (Full/Partial/Low)  Technology  Verified Savings  Market  Program Supported in NEEA bus plan (yes/no) Upstream Market Effort Required (Incentive, Education, None) Consumer Effort Required (Incentive, Education, None) Work to Building Code / Standards % Utility Role Lead Role in 5 year Action Plan (Utility, NEEA, State, Other) Secondary Role

6. DRAFT 6 Technology Readiness Technology Readiness (Full/Partial/Low)  Full = no technical or product related issues  Partially = some questions about technology or application in the NW  Low = product needs major work to validate performance or modify technology for NW 67% of Savings in 5-year targets are “Fully Ready”. 33% of 5-year targets need technology efforts at some level. Areas not fully ready include:  Residential – HPHW, TVs, LEDs for specialty lighting  Commercial – Exterior lighting, Recommissioning, Low Pressure Distribution systems, Rooftop optimization  Industrial - Energy Project Management, Plant Energy Management, Integrated Plant Energy Management  DEI (non-CVR)

7. DRAFT 7 RTF Status / Verified Savings Verified Savings Readiness (Full/Partial/Low)  Full = robust savings assessments (deemed savings or savings calculation methodology defined) completed in region  Partial = transferrable savings assessments outside of the region or preliminary assessments within the region  Low = little or no savings verification conducted to date 58% of 5 year targets are “fully ready”. 42% of 5-year targets need savings verification efforts at some level.  In addition to measures listed on previous page, some measures requiring more savings verification include: Ductless heat pumps, Demand control ventilation, Integrated building design, Controls Commission, Signage Lighting, Network PC, Computer Servers

8. DRAFT 8 Market Readiness Market Readiness (Full/Partial/Low)  Full = all elements of the supply side channel are fully capable of delivering and can be scaled up easily  Partial = missing pieces of delivery chain or difficulties with scaling  Low = significant work required for delivery chain and scaling 49% of Savings in 5 year targets are “fully” market ready. Partial or low include: 51% of 5-year targets need market efforts at some level.  Majority of measures shown before require market readiness. Additional market work includes: Network PC, Integrated building design, Demand control ventilation

9. DRAFT 9 Program Readiness Program Readiness (Full/Partial/Low)  Full = successful program experience in region  Partial = pilot experience in region or transferrable program experience outside of region  Low = Little or no program experience 53% of Savings are “fully program ready”. 47% of Savings need programmatic development efforts.  Region is more “program ready” than “market ready” because some measures fit within existing programmatic paradigms, e.g. residential specialty lighting, and commercial LPD packages

10. DRAFT 10 Implementation Strategies Group characterized upstream and downstream efforts required, working to building code/standard Work is not complete, requires much more effort with NEEA staff and broader regional group Primary finding from effort – there are not discrete “bins” of utility, NEEA, code/standard measures. Only “utility” received discrete bins; the rest interact significantly. For example:  Heat Pump Hot Water Heaters: Will require upstream efforts with manufacturers and distributors; education of trade allies; utility incentives and work on Federal Standards