1. DEVELOPMENT, INEQUALITY, AND THE CARBON INTENSITY OF HUMAN WELL-BEING: PATHWAYS TO SUSTAINABILITY? Andrew Jorgenson Professor Department of Sociology Environmental & Sustainability Studies Program University of Utah

2. “Planetary Boundaries” The inner green shading represents the proposed safe operating space. The red wedges represent an estimate of the current position for each variable. The boundaries in three systems have already been exceeded. Sustainability Science The Role of Sociology Mazur and Rosa, Science (1974) Rockstrom et al., Nature (2009)

3. Impacts Attributed to Climate Change newstimeafrica.com/kenya-drought-effects-of-climate-change Differences in human vulnerability and exposure arise from non- climatic factors and from multidimensional inequalities often produced by uneven development processes. (IPCC 2014) ASA Task Force on Climate Change Volunteers raising awareness of rising sea levels in Malaysia www.350.org

4. Outline for Rest of Talk 1. Established, Narrower Areas of Research 2. Newer, Integrated Approach 3. CIWB: What is it? 4. Economic Development  CIWB, Inequality  CIWB 5. Concluding Remarks

5. Economic Development  Human Well-Being –e.g., Brady, Kaya, and Beckfield SCID (2007) Economic Development  Environment –e.g., Jorgenson and Clark, AJS (2012) Inequality  Human Well-Being –e.g., Babones, SS&M (2008) Inequality  Environment –e.g., Jorgenson, Social Problems (2003)

6. Environment Economic Development  ------------------------- Human Well-Being Environment Inequality  ------------------------- Human Well-Being

7. One potential pathway towards climate change mitigation and other sustainability efforts involves reducing the carbon intensity of human well-being (CIWB) CIWB: the level of anthropogenic carbon emissions per unit of human well-being (an “adjusted” ratio) –Numerator: anthropogenic CO 2 emissions per capita –Denominator: average life expectancy at birth –Production-based emissions, consumption-based emissions, EIWB

8. dot size is proportional to population; color shading by income Roberts, Steinberger, Lamb, Dietz, Jorgenson, York, Givens, Baer, and Schor, under review

9. Jorgenson and Dietz, Sustainability Science (2015) EIWB: blue boxplots are sample of developed nations; green boxplots are sample of developing nations

10. the correlation is -.0443; includes sample of 106 Nations (954 total observations) Jorgenson, Nature Climate Change (2014)

11. Economic Development  CIWB ? Inequality  CIWB ? Multiple samples of nations (Overall, OECD, Non-OECD, Regional) ‒ allows for investigating broad-based human / environment relationships as well as those potentially situated within narrower socioeconomic and regional contexts…

12. Baseline two-way fixed effects elasticity models

13. Estimated Effect of GDP per capita on the Carbon Intensity of Well-Being, 1970-2009 (production-based emissions data) Africa sample includes 36 nations; Asia sample includes 22 nations; South and Central America sample includes 21 nations; North America, Europe, and Oceania sample includes 27 nations Jorgenson, Nature Climate Change (2014)

14. Estimated Effect of GDP per capita on the Carbon Intensity of Well-Being, 1990-2008 (consumption-based emissions data) All sample includes 69 nations; OECD sample includes 25 nations; Non-OECD sample includes 44 nations Jorgenson and Givens, under review

15. OECD sample includes 25 nations; Non-OECD Africa sample includes 16 nations; Non-OECD Asia sample includes 15 nations; Non-OECD Latin America sample includes 13 nations Jorgenson and Givens, under review Estimated Effect of GDP per capita on the Carbon Intensity of Well-Being, 1990-2008 (consumption-based emissions data)

16. Estimated Effect of Income Inequality on the Carbon Intensity of Well-Being, 1990-2008 (consumption-based emissions data) OECD sample includes 22 nations; Non-OECD sample includes 41 nations Jorgenson, Journal of Environmental Studies and Sciences (forthcoming)

17. Concluding Remarks 1. Sociology  Sustainability Science 2. The Findings And Their Implications 3. Limitations 4. Next Steps? 5. Scaling Down

18. Thanks!

19. New Research NSF Funded Project: The Effects of Organizational, World Economic, and World Society Factors on Power Plants CO 2 Emissions Over 25,000 power plants in almost 60 nations (multi-method) Hypothesis: plants with high CO 2 emission rates and levels share certain combinations of organizational, world economic, and world society structures and the effectiveness of national environmental policies will depend on plants’ structural “profiles.” Country-Level Plant-Level Country-Level Plant-Level Country-Level