1. Future Projections of Precipitation Characteristics in Asia

2. Experiment Model Model –MRI-CGCM2.2 (Yukimoto et al. 2001) –AGCM: T42 (2.8x2.8), L30 (top at 0.4hPa) –OGCM: 2.5x(0.5-2.0), L23 (uppermost layer 5.2m) Historical run Historical run –Forcings –GHGs: CO2, CH4, N2O, CFCs (Hansen et al. 1998) –Sulphate aerosol: direct only (Mitchell and Johns 1997) –Solar forcing: change of solar constant (Lean et al. 1995) –Volcanic activity: stratospheric aerosol (Sato et al. 1993) –Spin up + control run 350 years –Monsoon (Rajendran et al. 2004) –3 ensembles, 1850-2000 –I.C. from control, 50 year apart Scenario run for 21st century Scenario run for 21st century –SRES A2 and B2 scenario –3 ensembles each, 1990-2100

3. Annual Mean Change

4. Annual mean surface air temperature change 2041-20602081-2100 A2 B2 60W1800 30S 90N El Nino-like “mean” SST change is noticed in the tropical Pacific.

5. Annual mean precipitation changes 2041-20602081-2100 A2 B2 Pattern of precipitation change is similar to each other. 90N 30S 018060W

6. Global Warming pattern and ENSO pattern

7. ENSO composite of surface temperature and precipitation in the model > The control experiment of the MRI CGCM2 succeeds to simulate interannual variability associated with ENSO.

8. partial correlation We try to distinguish ENSO effect and global warming influence by partial correlations. Top panel shows annual mean surface air temperature correlation to global warming signal, and Bottom panel shows annual mean surface air temperature correlation to model El Nino. thus, quite different from each other for temperature, but for precipitation …

9. partial correlation warming ENSO DJFJJA In Asia, ENSO-related precip change is equally important as global warming.

10. Analysis of Daily Precipitation Characteristics

11. Present Eastward shift of precipitation over the equatorial Pacific > El Nino like mean response Annual mean precipitation F – P Future 2041-2060 MRI-CGCM2

12. Total amount Intensity negative area less than that in total precipitation Frequency negative area more than that in total precipitation Changes in 3 characteristics in precipitation ANNUAL

13. Changes in 3 characteristics in precipitation - classification T F I % 1+ + + 40.5 2+ + – 2.7 3+ – + 20.9 4+ – – 0.1 5– + + 0.0 6– + – 2.4 7– – + 13.8 8– – – 19.5 1+8 (all increase or decrease) 〜 60% 3+7 (less freq. but intensify) 〜 34%

14. Consistency among 3 ensemble members 4.4 0.2 0.3 1.3 (%)

15. Consistency among 3 ensemble members 6.7 0.7 0.5 2.4 (%)

16. Consistency among 3 ensemble members 9.0 1.1 0.8 3.9 (%)

17. Consistency among 3 ensemble members 11.9 2.8 0.8 3.6 (%)

18. Consistency among 3 ensemble members 17.5 3.0 1.2 4.8 (%)

19. Consistency among 3 ensemble members 21.3 4.0 1.6 5.4 (%)

20. Consistency among 3 ensemble members 21.8 5.9 2.4 7.6 (%)

21. Consistency among 3 ensemble members 22.7 6.3 3.1 7.7 (%)

22. Consistency among 3 ensemble members 25.1 8.1 3.4 6.0 (%)

23. Consistency among 3 ensemble members 26.5 8.8 3.8 6.3 (%)

24. classification 2041-2060 B2 2041-2060 A2 2081-2100 B2 2081-2100 A2 ANNUAL

25. classification 2041-2060 B2 2041-2060 A2 2081-2100 B2 2081-2100 A2 ANNUAL

26. classification: consistency for 3 members 2041-2060 B2 2041-2060 A2 2081-2100 B2 2081-2100 A2 ANNUAL

27. seasonal change in total precip, frequency and intensity [Changjiang] 2041-2060 90% significant 70% significant + – Total amount Frequency Intensity

28. seasonal change in total precip, frequency and intensity [Changjiang] 2081-2100 90% significant 70% significant + – Total amount Frequency Intensity

29. Occurrence frequency of annual mean precipitation greater than mean+2s.d.(E2) Present F/P Future ANNUAL

30. Frequency ratio (F/P) of precipitation greater than mean+2s.d.(E2) DJF ANN JJA Probability of heavy precipitation year generally increases in Asia except in summertime North China

31. Frequency distribution of JJA-mean precipitation In South China, both the mean and standard deviation increase in F, with more probability of occurrence in precip range more than 700 mm/season and less than 300 mm/season ranges in the A2 scenario experiment. In North China, a decrease of good rain year in JJA is simulated. South ChinaNorth China mm/day Green: present Red: future frequency intensity

32. JJA moisture flux and its divergence Present F-P Future Increased moisture content and intensified subtropical anticyclone resulted in increased precipitation in East Asia; increased moisture content is responsible for India

33. Summary SRES-A2 and B2 scenario ensemble runs are performed with MRI-CGCM2. El Nino-like mean changes are noted in the tropics. Both the frequency and intensity increase in about 40% of the globe, while they decrease in about 20% of the globe. East Asia is a region where summertime wet-day frequency decreases but precipitation intensity increases. This is related to increased atmospheric moisture content and an El-Nino like mean SST change and associated circulation changes. A decrease in summer precipitation in North China is also noted.