1. Household Projections for Wales Welsh Statistical Liaison Committee 6 th March 2014

2. Outline Background Impact of 2011 Census Methodology 2011-based Household Projections - Results

3. Background Household Projections –Based on other demographic projections –Indicate outcome of assumptions based on current trends –Not policy based –Households not dwellings (housing demand not supply)

4. Background Methodology used in Wales –Based on population projections for Wales –Census data used to calculate projected household population –Census data used to project trends in household types – based on membership method –Household types based on size of household and presence of children (marital status not used)

5. 1 person4 person (no children) 2 person (no children)4 person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 2 person (1 adult, 1 child)4 person (1 adult, 3 children) 3 person (no children)5 + person (no children) 3 person (2 adults, 1 child)5 + person (2+ adults, 1+ children) 3 person (1 adult, 2 children)5 + person (1 adult, 4 + children) Household Types

6. Recent History 2008 - Local authority-level population and household projections developed –2006-based household projections – June 2009 –2008-based household projections – September 2010 2011 Census –Taken - 27 March 2011 –First results - 16 July 2012 –Factored into LA Population Projections – July-Sept 2013 –Detailed household results obtained - October 2013

7. Impact of 2011 Census Initial Results for Wales: –Population 3.063m (0.9% higher than projected) –Households 1.302m (2.5% lower than projected) –Average Household Size 2.30 (projected 2.23) –Communal Establishment population 52,000 (20% higher than in 2001)

8. Percentage Change in All Households, England and Wales

9. Percentage Change in One Person Households

10. Percentage Change in Lone Parent Households

11. Percentage Change in Households with no children, Wales

13. Percentage of Household Population in 1 Person Households by Age, Wales

14. Percentage of Household Population aged 65-74 by Household Type, Wales

15. Percentage of Household Population aged 45-49 by Household Type, Wales

16. Percentage of Household Population aged 30-34 by Household Type, Wales

17. The Membership Method Formula: where h i = total households in year i t = household type ag = age and gender group pop agi = population in age and gender group ag in year i comm agi = communal establishment population in age and gender group ag in year i y agti = membership rate for age and gender group ag and household type t in year i size t = household size for type t

18. Household Population Total Population minus Communal Establishments Population Data on Communal Establishments from 2011 Census Number aged under 75, Proportion aged over 75 held constant

19. Membership Rates Two point exponential model: where i = the year y i = membership rate in year i k = 1 if y2011 ≥ y2001 0 if y2011 < y2001 a = y2001 – k b = (y2011 – k)/(y2001 – k) x i = (i – 2001)/(2011 – 2001)

20. 0-440-44 5-945-49 10-1550-54 16-1855-59 19-2460-64 25-2965-74 30-3475-84 35-3985+ Age Bands

21. Variant Projections Based on available variant population projections: –High variant: high fertility and low mortality –Low variant: low fertility and high mortality –Ten-Year Average Migration variant –Natural change only/zero migration variant

22. What’s Changed since 2010? Update of population- and household projections based on 2011 Census Ten-Year Average Migration variant Wales = Sum of Local Authorities (no 2011-based NPP)

23. 2011-based Household Projections for Wales First set to incorporate results of the 2011 Census –In underlying population projections Population base – 2011 mid-year estimates (MYE) based on the Census Assumptions based on MYE for 2002-2010 which had been revised to take account of the 2011 Census –In household formation assumptions –In communal establishment population assumption

24. 2011-based Household Projections for Wales Results

25. Projected Households for Wales, Principal Projections

26. Projected Households, Wales, by Variant and Base Year

27. Projected Households by type for Wales, Principal Projection

28. Projected Average Household Size, Wales

29. Projected Households by Local Authority, Wales, 2011-2036

32. Projected Households by type, Wales, 2011 and 2026

33. Future Releases ‘Further Results’ Excel file New version of HOUSEGROUP WALES? Household Estimates

34. Population and Household Projections for Wales Further information: www.wales.gov.uk/statistics stats.popcensus@wales.gsi.gov.uk 029 2082 1595